Per SCOTUS, initiative created redistricting commissions may be l'histoire

[politicallefty]

I really hope that SCOTUS doesn't nuke independent redistricting commissions. I'm very consistent in my opposition to partisan gerrymandering (albeit not in terms of unilateral disarmament). However, I do agree with the sentiment here that SCOTUS does appear to be quite likely to strike down the Arizona commission (and at least the California commission by extension).

Based on what I've read, leadership in the California Legislature does appear ready to reopen redistricting if SCOTUS rules that way. You have to look at this from the standpoint of California Democrats. In the Legislature, they are term limited and they almost certainly want to have as many seats open for aspiring legislators to move up. I would also expect Nancy Pelosi to be spending some time in Sacramento this summer. She wants to be Speaker again and a Democratic gerrymander of California would put her that much closer to her goal. There's little doubt she'll have considerable sway in creating any new map.

As others have mentioned, it's quite easy to shore up the more endangered incumbents (and they will all be quite safe). I don't think they'll do anything quite as aggressive as SBane's CA-01, but it is quite nice from a partisan standpoint. (As for Torie's map, despite coming from a more conservative standpoint, Democrats would not leave Chico in a Republican sink. Moving that and/or all of Butte County could shift some other districts more Democratic.) Denham can be easily wiped out by adding Democratic territory to the west. Valadao's district should be redrawn from the ground up, increasing the Democratic margin and shifting significant territory around. I haven't really played around with SoCal (particularly LA County) too much, but I think we can get at least get 2-3 additional districts there. A realistic goal for any map should have Democrats at 43-45 seats in the House.

(Also, if anyone can help me with a fully VRA-compliant map, how many Hispanic-majority and/or coalition districts are required?)