politicallefty
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,314
Political Matrix E: -3.87, S: -9.22
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« on: July 18, 2015, 01:54:39 PM » |
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I think Hillary's max in NY is probably around 67-68%, which is what she got in her reelection to the Senate in 2006. A staunch socially conservative nominee could bump that up marginally. If there's a strong social conservative at the top of the Republican ticket, I think Vermont could break 70% for the Democratic nominee with ease. New England (and the greater Northeast) will be a wasteland for any staunch social conservative at the top of the Republican ticket.
I think Vermont will likely stay as it is, so it's a really a contest between it and NY. Either way, they're both pushing into the high-60s (maybe into the 70s). Without Obama, Hawaii will probably drop into the mid-60s.
I think the bigger question overall is whether or not any state will be above 70% for any party. Right now, I doubt that happening, although it is certainly possibility. With fresh nominees, I expect both Hawaii and Utah to drop back down to the >60% category.
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