It's foolish to assume that 2016 will play out like 2012, with Christie or someone similar in the Romney role and various conservatives competing to be the alternative. There could no consensus establishment candidate at all. In 2008, the Republican Party establishment was split between McCain, Giuliani and Romney. I see no reason that couldn't happen again.
Didn't it turn into a McCain, Romney, and Huckabee race?
So a Walker, Thune, and Rubio race would be similar:
Two establishment conservatives, and one tea Partier.