WV-PPP (2018 SEN): Manchin leads McKinley by 10

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

If there is any Dem out of the 2018 red state Dem bunch that can survive, it is Manchin. He has been a loud, consistent critic of the far-left and even the moderate left in his own party, and as such, there is no doubt where he stands. A Republican will have a hard time painting him as too liberal or too cozy with Bernie and Hillary.

If he survived in 2010, why would he start out favored to lose in 2018? Did he have a bad 2010 opponent?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The most likely red state Senator to survive is Heitkamp IMO. Tester makes it somewhat close. The other three (especially McCaskill) will need a miracle to survive if Clinton is president.

McCaskill is probably toast regardless. She's just given her opponents too many videotaped extreme statements and gaffes. Unless another scumbag like Akin gets nominated, of course.

In order to survive, these other red-staters need to continuously vote against their party line from time to time, not just try to do it when the election is near. Tester, Heitkamp, and Donnelly have done OK at this, and Manchin has done well. All could survive, but all will of course have to deal with the unpopularity of their party locally.