How would the Florida Senate race rate if Rubio runs for Re-Election?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

He would easily win the primary due to the lack of name recognition of everyone else in it but would have a hard time in the general election because:

1. He has said repeatedly that he is not running for reelection and has no interest in a second term
2. His attendance record has been abysmal because he spent too much time campaigning and not enough serving his state
3. He "justified" his absence by saying "I am not running for reelection"

I think those attack lines would prove too much for Rubio to overcome. Maybe he could do it if he were to promise to serve out the full term (and maybe a third term as well if reelected) to alleviate the perception that the Senate seat is a consolation prize and a stepping stone to a second presidential run in 2020.

However, amidst all this, he remains popular in Miami-Dade County, a place where Dems must do well to win, and Alan Grayson could be nominated, so it could happen.

I'd start the race out as a very unpredictable toss-up with Rubio strongly favored in the primary.