Illinois Gubernatorial Election 2014.

[ill ind]

  It looks like Rauner will come out on top of the GOP heap tomorrow.  Lots of union support for Dillard though.  My wife is in the teachers' union and we have gotten several mailings with "Democrat, Republican, or Independent, be sure to ask for a Republican ballot and vote for Kirk Dillard."  It will not be anywhere near enough in what is appearing to be a low turnout election, however. 

  On the Democratic side, Tio Hardiman will carry a dozen or more downstate counties simply because his name isn't Pat Quinn.

  If it is Quinn vs Rauner, I look to the general as being one of the ugliest campaigns in the nation.

[ill ind]

  If one breaks it down by CD, then one finds that in District 15 (Shimkus R) Hardiman won pretty handily by 8 points 54-46.  (I had to take the CD percentage of the total vote and multiply it by the county percentage between Quinn and Hardiman for Bond and Madison Counties as precinct level results aren't available yet--and this would help Quinn as CD 15's portion of Madison County is much more rural in character)

The raw vote would be Hardiman 10,611
                                            Quinn  9,069

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

Didn't Quinn outperform Obama in parts of deep-South Illinois?  I think there was even a county(Madison, I think?) that Quinn carried that Obama didn't in 2012. 

Did Quinn collapse in popularity in Little Egypt or something since 2010? 


Quinn's 2010 results outperformed Obama's 2012 results in 12 counties: Calhoun,
Randolph, Perry, Franklin, Hamilton, Williamson, Saline, Gallatin, Union, Johnson, Pope, and Hardin.   
All except Hardin were carried by Tio Hardiman.

It's hard to explain, but alot of these counties vote Democratic on a local level, but then Republican on a State or Federal level.

Take for example Randolph County.  Even though it went GOP at the top in both 2010 and 2012, on Tuesday the 18th, 3,961 people voted Democratic and 2,425 voted Republican.  Hardiman won and the total vote for Governor was 3,202 representing a nearly 20% fall-off from the people actually voting Democratic versus those voting in the Democratic race for Governor.  However 3,958 out of 3,961 Democratic voters made a choice in the contested race for County Treasurer.
Same thing happenned in 2012, where in the primary 3,641 people voted Democratic, but only 2,490 for Obama representing a 32% drop-off in those voting Democrtic in a primary and those voting for the Democratic Presidential Candidate.

I guess what I'm getting at is that there are a whole lot of people in these counties who vote Democratic inthe primary solely for the local races, and then either skip the top race, or cast a protest vote as occurred this time.  There are a whole lot of county offices here controlled by the Dems despite the fact that the top of the ticket carried none of them in 2010 or 2012.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  I guess in simpler terms, Southern Illinois votes alot like West Virginia.  Democratic for local county and legislative offices, but strong GOP for state and national offices.
  In May of 2012 180 thousand voted in the Democratic primary where Obama beat Keith Judd by a 59-41 majority, but only 112 thousand voted in the GOP primary.  A whole lot of those voters chose the Democratic ballot to vote for other local races, and then cast a protest vote against Obama.
  The same type of results that ocurred in W Va will occur in Southern Illinois.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

McCain carried 56 out of 102 Illinois counties in 2008--albeit ones without a whole lot of population.  Romney carried 79 out of 102 counties in 2012--again most without a whole lot of voters

Keyes carried 10 counties in 2004 against Obama.

Ill_Ind