Your biggest state surprise... (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Your biggest state surprise... (search mode)
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Author Topic: Your biggest state surprise...  (Read 9823 times)
Hitchabrut
republicanjew18
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,674


Political Matrix
E: 8.38, S: 7.49

« on: November 06, 2004, 07:36:08 PM »

1. Wisconsin should've been Bush's best chance at a pickup.
2. West Virginia was trending toward Bush, but I expected him to win there by about 6%
3. North Carolina was only 1% closer than in 2000. So much for Johnny Edwards.
4. New Jersey disappointed me because It was so close for such a long time and then Kerry blew open a 7% win. At least Bush topped his 2000 performance.
5. Florida looked like a complete toss-up with a slight edge toward Bush in the final days of the campaign, but Bush pulled off a pre-debate sized win of 5% there.
6. Minnesota was closely contested but Kerry topped Bush by a margin higher than I expected.
7. Vermont looked like it would go for Bush by anywhere from 10-15%, but it was one of Kerry's strongest states.

Also, the networks were stupid to call PA before OH, because in the end, PA was closer.
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Hitchabrut
republicanjew18
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,674


Political Matrix
E: 8.38, S: 7.49

« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2004, 07:44:24 PM »

I got 101 points for my state prediction. (5th place) My 2 incorrect states were WI and MN, which I thought Bush would carry by less than 1%.
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Hitchabrut
republicanjew18
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,674


Political Matrix
E: 8.38, S: 7.49

« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2004, 07:57:18 PM »

Big mistake on what I said about Vermont. I meant that Kerry would win by 10-15%.
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