Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates.

[windjammer]

WYOMING




SD    INC    PVI
1   R   -38
2   R   -28
3   R   -27
4   R   -14
5   R   -13
6   R   -20
7   R   -10
8   D   -4
9   D   3
10   R   -7
11   R   -20
12   D   -18
13   D   -18
14   R   -29
15   R   -28
16   R   -28
17   R   6
18   R   -30
19   R   -30
20   R   -30
21   R   -23
22   R   -28
23   R   -38
24   R   -33
25   R   -6
26   R   -29
27   R   -24
28   R   -19
29   R   -22
30   R   -28

SD    INC  PVI
17   R   6
9   D   3
8   D   -4
25   R   -6
10   R   -7
7   R   -10
5   R   -13
4   R   -14
12   D   -18
13   D   -18
28   R   -19
6   R   -20
11   R   -20
29   R   -22
21   R   -23
27   R   -24
3   R   -27
2   R   -28
15   R   -28
16   R   -28
22   R   -28
30   R   -28
14   R   -29
26   R   -29
18   R   -30
19   R   -30
20   R   -30
24   R   -33
1   R   -38
23   R   -38

WY democrats failed to hold the most liberal district, but they hold some rep leaning districts: strange.

[windjammer]

South Carolina

http://ors.sc.gov/digital/2010GISData/S815_statewide.pdf

We can see the SC democratic is extremely competitive by electing people in such conservative districts. I can see 2 reasons:
-the SC democratic party always runs good recruits and SC was extremely democrat before (see the 1932,1936 election ). Vincent Sheheen is definitely a strong recruit.
-The SC republican party is definitely a MESS (Tim Scott and Lindsey Graham are two exceptions though): Nikki  Haley, Mark Sanford, the tea party has an important influence in the SC GOP.

There is also another reason, we still have a few long time incumbent blue dogs.  In the 26th district the other Nikki, Nikki Setzler, is a conservative blue dog who has been in office since 1976.  I fully expect that when he leaves the Senate, the GOP will pick up his seat, much as the GOP picked up the 25th when Tommy Moore left.

Thank you True Federalist, I will add this reason!

[windjammer]

Nice job. I was comparing your results to mine in IL where I have the presidential returns of 2004 and 2008 overlaid onto the current (post 2011) House and Senate districts. We don't always agree, so I was wondering what you used as the source of your election data in IL?

For the IL 2008 results, I have used Dave redistricting and DKE (https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0Bz_uFI8VY7xLUzlwSXBjbkJjZU0&usp=sharing).
For the IL 2012 results, I have used this site: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president
(with the trend of the counties).
To be honest, Illinois was extremely difficult to do because of the blatant dem gerrymander (seriously, horrible map). And this is probably the state where the PVI is the least accurate because in the county where Chicago, we have too many districts.
So honestly, I don't know which site you have used, but your work is probably much more accurate than mine. Illinois was extremely difficult to do.

[windjammer]

Texas

 


SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    REP   -24
SD 2    REP   -16
SD 3    REP   -27
SD 4    REP   -22
SD 5    REP   -15
SD 6    DEM   13
SD 7    REP   -20
SD 8    REP   -14
SD 9    REP   -12
SD 10   DEM   -6
SD 11   REP   -17
SD 12   REP   -18
SD 13   DEM   31
SD 14   DEM   11
SD 15   DEM   7
SD 16   REP   -9
SD 17   REP   -12
SD 18   REP   -19
SD 19   DEM   3
SD 20   DEM   4
SD 21   DEM   6
SD 22   REP   -20
SD 23   DEM   28
SD 24   REP   -22
SD 25   REP   -17
SD 26   DEM   9
SD 27   DEM   15
SD 28   REP   -26
SD 29   DEM   13
SD 30   REP   -27
SD 31   REP   -32


SD   INC   PVI
SD 13   DEM   31
SD 23   DEM   28
SD 27   DEM   15
SD 6    DEM   13
SD 29   DEM   13
SD 14   DEM   11
SD 26   DEM   9
SD 15   DEM   7
SD 21   DEM   6
SD 20   DEM   4
SD 19   DEM   3
SD 10   DEM   -6
SD 16   REP   -9
SD 9    REP   -12
SD 17   REP   -12
SD 8    REP   -14
SD 5    REP   -15
SD 2    REP   -16
SD 11   REP   -17
SD 25   REP   -17
SD 12   REP   -18
SD 18   REP   -19
SD 7    REP   -20
SD 22   REP   -20
SD 4    REP   -22
SD 24   REP   -22
SD 1    REP   -24
SD 28   REP   -26
SD 3    REP   -27
SD 30   REP   -27
SD 31   REP   -32

Election results tabulated for all districts are available on the Texas state redistricting site.

I'm not sure how to convert them to PVI.

For example, Romney had 58.0% of the statewide 2-way vote, and 72.9% in SD-1.  Do you make the state 50-50, and SD-1 64.9% Romney?   Or is it based on the national PVI vote.

SD-4 is technically vacant, but only Republicans are running in the special election.

https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0Bz_uFI8VY7xLUzlwSXBjbkJjZU0&usp=sharing
I have used this site for Texas which has the 2008 and 2012 results for each senate district.
What I have done for each senate district: [(Obama2008-Mccain2008)/2-3.6 +(Obama2012-Mccain2012)/2-1.95]/2

[windjammer]

Now it should be easier to read!

[windjammer]

Are you planning to do one for state houses as well?

Obviously!

[windjammer]

Texas

SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    REP   -24

Election results tabulated for all districts are available on the Texas state redistricting site.

I'm not sure how to convert them to PVI.

For example, Romney had 58.0% of the statewide 2-way vote, and 72.9% in SD-1.  Do you make the state 50-50, and SD-1 64.9% Romney?   Or is it based on the national PVI vote.

SD-4 is technically vacant, but only Republicans are running in the special election.

https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0Bz_uFI8VY7xLUzlwSXBjbkJjZU0&usp=sharing
I have used this site for Texas which has the 2008 and 2012 results for each senate district.
What I have done for each senate district: [(Obama2008-Mccain2008)/2-3.6 +(Obama2012-Mccain2012)/2-1.95]/2

Those numbers match those from the Texas redistricting site.

So if the results shifted (3.6 + 1.95)/2 = 2.78% towards the Republican presidential candidates, then in SD-1 (which has a PVI of -24%) Obama would have averaged 24% below 50% for the two elections or 26%.  Am I understanding correctly?

You're approximately understanding!
-----------------

Nice job. I was comparing your results to mine in IL where I have the presidential returns of 2004 and 2008 overlaid onto the current (post 2011) House and Senate districts. We don't always agree, so I was wondering what you used as the source of your election data in IL?

For the IL 2008 results, I have used Dave redistricting and DKE (https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0Bz_uFI8VY7xLUzlwSXBjbkJjZU0&usp=sharing).
For the IL 2012 results, I have used this site: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president
(with the trend of the counties).
To be honest, Illinois was extremely difficult to do because of the blatant dem gerrymander (seriously, horrible map). And this is probably the state where the PVI is the least accurate because in the county where Chicago, we have too many districts.
So honestly, I don't know which site you have used, but your work is probably much more accurate than mine. Illinois was extremely difficult to do.

Splitting counties as if they were evenly spread between the two parties won't work very well. They are often carved precisely to enhance the partisan leanings in one part over another. I have the full precinct data for the state in 2004 and 2008 except for 3 counties. I'll see if I can put together a more accurate set of PVIs for you pre-2012.

Thank you! But seriously, for 2008, I have drawn the districts myself (and used DKE just to be sure), so the biggest problem is for the 2012 results, where I didn't have the results for Illinois. So I have had to use NYT for the counties trend, and that isn't really accurate especially in Illinois. Fortunately, I managed to have most of the 2012 results. But Illinois was really a problem.

[windjammer]

So if you have the 2012 IL results, it would be great. The IL 2008 results,  I have them.
I was forced to do the 2012 IL results with the trend of the counties, and that's not accurate at all, especially in Illinois when the county where Chicago is has a lot of state senate districts!

[windjammer]

Thank you, Muon, so if I correctly understand, it was the PVI based on the 2004 and the 2008 results?

[windjammer]

Thank you Muon. I will replace the current Illinois PVI by your work. My PVI for Illinois was too inaccurate because I didn't have the 2012 results.

[windjammer]

Kansas



SD   INC   PVI
1   R   -20
2   D   10
3   D   -3
4   D   29
5   R   -5
6   D   11
7   R   0
8   R   -9
9   R   -12
10   R   -9
11   R   -15
12   R   -17
13   R   -10
14   R   -24
15   R   -18
16   R   -20
17   R   -9
18   D   -7
19   D   -2
20   R   -7
21   R   -5
22   D   -11
23   R   -13
24   R   -19
25   R   -3
26   R   -13
27   R   -20
28   R   -7
29   D   17
30   R   -9
31   R   -16
32   R   -20
33   R   -28
34   R   -17
35   R   -23
36   R   -30
37   R   -19
38   R   -25
39   R   -28
40   R   -29



SD   INC   PVI   
4   D   29   
29   D   17   
6   D   11   
2   D   10   
7   R   0   
19   D   -2   
3   D   -3   
25   R   -3   
5   R   -5   
21   R   -5   
18   D   -7   
20   R   -7   
28   R   -7   
8   R   -9   *
10   R   -9   
17   R   -9   
30   R   -9   
13   R   -10   
22   D   -11   
9   R   -12   
23   R   -13   
26   R   -13   
11   R   -15   
31   R   -16   
12   R   -17   
34   R   -17   
15   R   -18   
24   R   -19   
37   R   -19   
1   R   -20   
16   R   -20   
27   R   -20   
32   R   -20   
35   R   -23   
14   R   -24   
38   R   -25   
33   R   -28   
39   R   -28   
40   R   -29   
36   R   -30   

Well, this map has been drawn by the court because the “moderate” republicans and the “conservative” republicans couldn’t agree. 2012 will be remembered as the Great Purge for the KS GOP party. Compared with Brownback and the other crazy republicans, Stalin looks like a moderate willing to make compromise with the other ideologies of this party. The KS moderate republicans are definitely DEAD.
It will be difficult for the democrats to end the KS supermajority, but that’s a possibility if Davis wins (and that’s unlikely).

Wow comparing the other party to a man who murdered millions. That is a new level of hackishness. Good maps anyway.

I'm not a hack. It's time to understand humor. If I have compared Brownback with Stalin, it's because both of them have purged their party, I'm not saying Brownback is killing million people. He just loves RINO hunting.
I though it was understandable. No, I'm not believing Brownback is a mass murderer (LOL).
So no, I'm not a hack at all.

[windjammer]

Kansas



SD   INC   PVI
1   R   -20
2   D   10
3   D   -3
4   D   29
5   R   -5
6   D   11
7   R   0
8   R   -9
9   R   -12
10   R   -9
11   R   -15
12   R   -17
13   R   -10
14   R   -24
15   R   -18
16   R   -20
17   R   -9
18   D   -7
19   D   -2
20   R   -7
21   R   -5
22   D   -11
23   R   -13
24   R   -19
25   R   -3
26   R   -13
27   R   -20
28   R   -7
29   D   17
30   R   -9
31   R   -16
32   R   -20
33   R   -28
34   R   -17
35   R   -23
36   R   -30
37   R   -19
38   R   -25
39   R   -28
40   R   -29



SD   INC   PVI   
4   D   29   
29   D   17   
6   D   11   
2   D   10   
7   R   0   
19   D   -2   
3   D   -3   
25   R   -3   
5   R   -5   
21   R   -5   
18   D   -7   
20   R   -7   
28   R   -7   
8   R   -9   *
10   R   -9   
17   R   -9   
30   R   -9   
13   R   -10   
22   D   -11   
9   R   -12   
23   R   -13   
26   R   -13   
11   R   -15   
31   R   -16   
12   R   -17   
34   R   -17   
15   R   -18   
24   R   -19   
37   R   -19   
1   R   -20   
16   R   -20   
27   R   -20   
32   R   -20   
35   R   -23   
14   R   -24   
38   R   -25   
33   R   -28   
39   R   -28   
40   R   -29   
36   R   -30   

Well, this map has been drawn by the court because the “moderate” republicans and the “conservative” republicans couldn’t agree. 2012 will be remembered as the Great Purge for the KS GOP party. Compared with Brownback and the other crazy republicans, Stalin looks like a moderate willing to make compromise with the other ideologies of this party. The KS moderate republicans are definitely DEAD.
It will be difficult for the democrats to end the KS supermajority, but that’s a possibility if Davis wins (and that’s unlikely).

Wow comparing the other party to a man who murdered millions. That is a new level of hackishness. Good maps anyway.

I'm not a hack. It's time to understand humor. If I have compared Brownback with Stalin, it's because both of them have purged their party, I'm not saying Brownback is killing million people. He just loves RINO hunting.
I though it was understandable. No, I'm not believing Brownback is a mass murderer (LOL).
So no, I'm not a hack at all.

I understand humor. You just aren't remotely funny. You also criticize Republicans for being too "conservative", but yet when a Democrat reaches across the isle their a "ing bastard" and deserve to be defeated. I understand no one wants to admit that they are a hack, but you pretty much are.

Believe whatever you want. I will certainly not apologize for considering that Brownback is globally like Stalin for targeting other ideologies in his party, because that's true. I guess for being a libertarian, you definitely like him, but see this: http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/08/08/the_great_kansas_republican_purge_of_2012.html
And yes, in some states, republicans are too conservative and they could do much better if they were more moderate, the South Carolina Republican Party, and I fail to see where hackery is. I have said too that Republicans in some blue states were really competitive, like in Oregon, Nevada, Connecticut,... I have also critized the OH democrat party for being a mess and for failing to win some toss up/lean D state senate seat.

But seriously, you think whatever you want. I won't really give a flip anymore.

[windjammer]

And yes, in some states, republicans are too conservative and they could do much better if they were more moderate, the South Carolina Republican Party, and I fail to see where hackery is. I have said too that Republicans in some blue states were really competitive, like in Oregon, Nevada, Connecticut,... I have also critized the OH democrat party for being a mess and for failing to win some toss up/lean D state senate seat.

Huh?  The SCGOP at present controls all nine statewide offices, the General Assembly, and all but one member of the Congressional delegation.  While they aren't entirely dominated by wingnuts, they certainly are predominating and I fail to see how they could possibly do better than they are doing even if they did take a turn towards being moderate.

The SCDEM currently holds 5 senates seats in conservative area. So yes, they could do better.

[windjammer]

Now, I will make the House PVI!

[windjammer]

May be - this link will be of some help:


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/07/09/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts?detail=hide

Don't worry, I already knew this link, but thanks!

Now, I will make the House PVI!

The House districts in Texas are different in 2014 than 2012.

[windjammer]

May be - this link will be of some help:


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/07/09/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts?detail=hide

Don't worry, I already knew this link, but thanks!

Now, I will make the House PVI!

The House districts in Texas are different in 2014 than 2012.

Texas Redistricting

I took a look at the two plans, and they are less interesting than I had thought.

14 districts were changed.

2 in Webb (42, 80)
3 in Tarrant (90, 97, 99)
6 in Dallas (103, 115, and minuscule to 109, 110, 111, 113).
3 in Harris (133, 137, 149)

The most politically significant drops Romney support in HD-115 from 55.37% to 55.26%.  The curiosity is that this is an exchange with HD-103 which takes it from 28.00% Romney to 28.77% Romney.

I'm pretty sure that there were some proposed changes that would simplify boundaries, but shift a district a percent or two in the right direction.   It appears that there was an attempt to prove that the legislature was reasonable, and considered minority interests.  Only four of the 14 districts are Republican.  The biggest political shift was -2.7% in HD-99 (from Romney 27.7% to 25.0%).

Thank you jimrtex.
But I just think I will ignore this potential problem, this could become much more complicate for me

[windjammer]

I have made half of the House PVI

[windjammer]

I have made half of the House PVI

Are there Democrats in R+30+ or Republicans in D+30+ seats)))

There are Democrats in R+30+. For the republicans, I haven't made  Vermont yet, but I don't think so.

[windjammer]

And yes, in some states, republicans are too conservative and they could do much better if they were more moderate, the South Carolina Republican Party, and I fail to see where hackery is. I have said too that Republicans in some blue states were really competitive, like in Oregon, Nevada, Connecticut,... I have also critized the OH democrat party for being a mess and for failing to win some toss up/lean D state senate seat.

Huh?  The SCGOP at present controls all nine statewide offices, the General Assembly, and all but one member of the Congressional delegation.  While they aren't entirely dominated by wingnuts, they certainly are predominating and I fail to see how they could possibly do better than they are doing even if they did take a turn towards being moderate.

The SCDEM currently holds 5 senates seats in conservative area. So yes, they could do better.

You are not going to have every seat go monolithically the way of their PVI. IF that happend CT would look like HI and there would be next to no political competition in the state. In fact the sheer dominace of the one party would tend to push swing voters in those not as pro-Dem seats to vote for the right Republican. Western PA used to be Democratic, Philly Burbs and CT Republican and there are towns and cities with politicians that still reflect this phenomenon and thus produce candidates who can win districts their party otherwise would have no business winning.

Using that to judge the condition of a state party is over generalizing from too little data. "CT is strong, SC is a mess" simply because in the former the GOP holds a few contrarian PVI seats and vice versa illustrates plainly what I mean. SC is nearing Texas levels of Dem exclusion from statewide offices and the GOP has solid majorities even without those handful of districts. That said the SC GOP is a mess because it is factionalized and not just between tea party and moderate but also between upland former-Democrat porker barrels and more fiscally conservatives to libertarian types like Sanford on the coast.

CT failed to deliver a single House seat, the Senate seat or hold Governorship for the GOP in one of the best GOP years in decades.

Yankee, the CT republican party is, I believe, effective. They lost by a slim margin the last gubernational race and the 2014 CT gubernational election will be competitive as well.
Sorry, but I think that when a republican party still holds many dem leaning seats, it shows this party is effective at the local level. I don't understand the problem with that. And with CT house of representatives I will soon post, the CT republican party holds many dem leaning seats as well. Yes, the CT republican party is relatively strong locally.

And for the SC GOP party, as you have said, this party is a mess: Sanford, Haley: LOL. But the SC DEM party seems to be relatively strong. SC is a bit a polarized state and the SC  democrats succesfully hold many rep leaning seats (and most of them aren't longtime DINOS), saying the SC democratic party is like the TX democratic party is untrue (if I have clearly understood what you wanted to say). They always line good recruits: Vincent Sheheen falls short last time, only 3 points, and he represents what a dem in a conservative state should be.

[windjammer]

I don't see Haley losing too.

But at least, SC democrats align good recruits.
I'm not saying the CT GOP party is perfect, but when I see the number of state senate and house seats they hold, it's quite impressive.
Of course, they have screwed the last gubernational race, but except that, they do relatively well!

NV republicans have aligned a poor recruit against Reid in 2010. But seriously, I consider them as being effective too.

[windjammer]

They always line good recruits: Vincent Sheheen falls short last time, only 3 points, and he represents what a dem in a conservative state should be.

Actually, for him to lose by 3 points merely pointed out the problems the GOP had in this state in 2010.  Sanford had just recently hiked the Appalachian Trail and there were a lot of questions concerning Haley.  But those have largely been resolved and the GOP is back to its usual strong self.  I would not be surprised if Haley wins by 10 or more points this time and I would be shocked if Sheheen could managed to have the rematch be as close as the first time.

The SCDP is in awful shape.  Yes, they've been able to line up reasonably good candidates for the gubernatorial race, but the bench has been awfully thin, enough so that they've only been able to field one or two strong candidates in each election.  Even counting weak candidates, they've only managed to field candidates for six of the nine statewide offices this year and only five of the seven U.S. House seats, with no one bothering to contest Sanford in the 1st District.

Once again, being effective doesn't mean you win elections. The SC democratic party is effective because they run good candidates for any statewides that aren't Safe Rep.
And yes, I believe Haley will be reelected too.

[windjammer]

I have made 40 PVI for the state house. It should be available at the end of the week

[windjammer]

I have made 40 PVI for the state house. It should be available at the end of the week

Excellent. DKE team still has 28 only..

Well, to be honest, for some states, I don't have all the results.

I mean, for the state senates, if I had just one result, I was always able to approximately determinate the other results with NYT.  Except Illinois, most of the state senate districts were based on more than 1 county, and there were few county split (except Illinois).

But for the state house, I can't do that anymore, (much more distict= inaccurate), so some PVI will be based on only one result. Better than nothing, and I plan to make the results more accurate for Missouri and Indiana for instance where there were too many differences.

I hope all of you understand .

[windjammer]

And really sorry for the delay!

[windjammer]

Great work, Windjammer. Can anyone map these states by Dem PVI and Rep PVI?

Any takers?

You mean,
Hawaii
Vermont
.
.
.
Utah

This?
No problem, I can do that if you want, that wouldn't take me a lot of time!