Era of the New Majority

[windjammer]

Virginia Congressional Map for 2020



CD 1: O 67-31 (Safe D) (43% Black, 44% White - Minority-Plurality)
CD 2: M 49.9-49.3 (Tossup/Tilt R)
CD 3: O 64-35 (Safe D) (44% Black, 45% White - Minority-Plurality)
CD 4: M 54-44 (Safe R)
CD 5: M 56-42 (Safe R)
CD 6: M 56-42 (Safe R)
CD 7: M 51-48 (Lean R)
CD 8: O 67-41 (Safe D)
CD 9: M 58-40 (Safe R)
CD 10: O 50-49 (Tossup/Tilt D)
CD 11: O 59-39 (Safe D)
CD 12: O 58-40 (Safe D)

Kenny Alexander (1) and Don McEachin's (3) districts remain minority-plurality and safe. Will Sessoms' district becomes slightly friendlier to the Republican (R-2). Robert Hurt's (4) district is now considerably safer without Charlottesville. Rick Morris is drawn into McEachin's district, leaving a potential opening in CD 5. Goodlatte (6) and Griffith (9) both stay in safe districts with little change. Wittman's district is, on paper, more competitive (7). Don Beyer ( and Gerry Connolly (11) effectively swap districts based on where the lines are drawn - Connolly's home is just inside the 8th. Jennifer Wexton's (10) seat is slightly less Republican, but still very competitive as it encircles most of NoVA (demographic changes and growth in Loudoun and Stafford County can only help her). A totally open 12th district emerges in the remainder of Fairfax and all of Prince William/Manassas to be filled by a Democrat.

Just curious, why do you believe CD 10 is toss up tilt dem?

[windjammer]

My take on North Carolina (D Governor, non-supermajority R legislature). Obviously, this is not a map that would likely pass in real life. Anyone with a superior suggestion is welcome to present it.



CD1: O 54-45 (Tossup/Tilt R, I imagine, based on this region's trend away from Democrats)
CD2: M 56-42 (Safe R)
CD3: O 55-44 (Leans D, minority-plurality; 44% white, 32% black)
CD4: O 57-41 (Safe D)
CD5: M 50-49 (Likely R)
CD6: O 65-34 (Safe D)
CD7: O 53-45 (Lean D)
CD8: M 53-45 (Safe R)
CD9: M 51-47 (Likely R without a Heath Shuler of a candidate)
CD10: O 60-38 (Safe D)
CD11: O 51-48 (Tossup/Tilt R)
CD12: M 53-45 (Likely R)
CD13: M 62-36 (Safe R)
CD14: M 62-36 (Safe R)

In a neutral environment, this map then yields a 5-9 D-R split. Even in a Republican wave, most of the Democratic base seats are probably safe outside of CD7, and Democrats could hit 7 seats in good conditions, possibly 8 or 9 depending on how big a wave it is and if the trend in eastern North Carolina away from Democrats continues.

(Someone more knowledgeable about NC politics is welcome to correct me if I'm wrong).

KingSweden, the governor can't veto a redictricting map in NC if I recall correctly. So republicans would still draw a bad gerrymander.

[windjammer]

My take on North Carolina (D Governor, non-supermajority R legislature). Obviously, this is not a map that would likely pass in real life. Anyone with a superior suggestion is welcome to present it.



CD1: O 54-45 (Tossup/Tilt R, I imagine, based on this region's trend away from Democrats)
CD2: M 56-42 (Safe R)
CD3: O 55-44 (Leans D, minority-plurality; 44% white, 32% black)
CD4: O 57-41 (Safe D)
CD5: M 50-49 (Likely R)
CD6: O 65-34 (Safe D)
CD7: O 53-45 (Lean D)
CD8: M 53-45 (Safe R)
CD9: M 51-47 (Likely R without a Heath Shuler of a candidate)
CD10: O 60-38 (Safe D)
CD11: O 51-48 (Tossup/Tilt R)
CD12: M 53-45 (Likely R)
CD13: M 62-36 (Safe R)
CD14: M 62-36 (Safe R)

In a neutral environment, this map then yields a 5-9 D-R split. Even in a Republican wave, most of the Democratic base seats are probably safe outside of CD7, and Democrats could hit 7 seats in good conditions, possibly 8 or 9 depending on how big a wave it is and if the trend in eastern North Carolina away from Democrats continues.

(Someone more knowledgeable about NC politics is welcome to correct me if I'm wrong).

KingSweden, the governor can't veto a redictricting map in NC if I recall correctly. So republicans would still draw a bad gerrymander.

That may very well be the case. My understanding of the 2011 redistricting in NC was that conservadems teamed up with the GOP to pass the maps over Bev Perdue's veto.

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[windjammer]

This is a toss up?

[windjammer]

They won in TN? Woooow, incredible .

Great job btw