2016 Congressional Primaries

[windjammer]

Pat Toomey voted for CRUZ! lmao

http://www.kbzk.com/story/31819633/vulnerable-senator-casts-vote-for-cruz

I dont think that will really matter, but this is a stupid decision

[windjammer]

Copeland is going to win lol

[windjammer]

Johnson has taken the lead in nc-9

Who is he? Freedom caucus ?

[windjammer]

While the House Freedom Caucus lost the battle in Kansas, they did win the nomination for the 2 open seats in Michigan.
So I wouldn't say it's a horrendous year for them.

[windjammer]

While the House Freedom Caucus lost the battle in Kansas, they did win the nomination for the 2 open seats in Michigan.
So I wouldn't say it's a horrendous year for them.

Disappointed to see Mitchell win. He's also a carpetbagger (sort of) having previously ran for Dave Camp's seat last cycle (MI-04). At least it's the same state, unlike Hillary or Alex Mooney. Are MI-01 and MI-10 competitive? I hear at least one will be in play.

Democrats aren't planning to compete in M1-04 at all.

However, they are clearly competing in M1-01, it's a basically a blue dog district. Romney carried it by  points in 2012, and the republican incumbent only won by 2-3 points. Democrats overperform downballot. Bart Stupak, who held this district until 2010 (he retired), was pro life for example. They seem to have a solid recruit for this district who is able to raise money.
And as X pointed out, republicans chose the worst candidate.

[windjammer]

Has the Club for Growth endorsed a candidate for TN-08, or run ads for someone?
I have found nothing, and I would be surprised if they didn't.

[windjammer]

I'm just surprised that Flinn is actually winning in CD-8.

Is he a freedom caucus Guy?

[windjammer]

TN-8: Kustoff now ahead of Flinn 27%-24%. State Sen. Brian Kelsey, generally presumed before the election to have been the frontrunner, still in fifth place with 13%.

Kustoff, establishment or tea party?

[windjammer]

like with Shuster, Republican primary voters prove that they don't care about corruption.

but with the defeats of Huelskamp and Forbes, they seem to be moving in a less right-wing direction. Huh.

Not true.
Forbes was defeated because he wasn't from this district, not because he was too rightwing.

The Club for Growth/New York scored big wins in many open seats:
-New York: Claudia Tenney
-North Carolina: Ellmer defeated and a Club for Growth guy won an open seat
-Ohio: Boehner replaced by a tea party guy
-Michigan: 2 open seats won by potential freedom caucus members (http://cookpolitical.com/story/9585)
- Indiana: Jim Banks and Hollinsworth both won and they are 2 freedom caucus guys.

The freedom caucus will most likely become a larger faction among the GOP after the 2016 elections.


 

[windjammer]

like with Shuster, Republican primary voters prove that they don't care about corruption.

but with the defeats of Huelskamp and Forbes, they seem to be moving in a less right-wing direction. Huh.

Not true.
Forbes was defeated because he wasn't from this district, not because he was too rightwing.

The Club for Growth/New York scored big wins in many open seats:
-New York: Claudia Tenney
-North Carolina: Ellmer defeated and a Club for Growth guy won an open seat
-Ohio: Boehner replaced by a tea party guy
-Michigan: 2 open seats won by potential freedom caucus members (http://cookpolitical.com/story/9585)
- Indiana: Jim Banks and Hollinsworth both won and they are 2 freedom caucus guys.

The freedom caucus will most likely become a larger faction among the GOP after the 2016 elections.

Forbes was NOT part of the Freedom Caucus. Is the guy who beat him in the primary a Freedom Caucus guy?
So, the FC lost Huelskamp's seat, but picked up Todd Young's seat and held Marlin Stutzman's seat. If Coaudia Tenney wins (R+3 district, but more competitive downballot), she may join (making her the only woman in the FC, pending other races). They also picked up NC-13 and OH-08, and one or two of the Michigan seats. So, if all the candidates mentioned win, the FC has gained (up to) 5 seats (including OH-08) as of now. What about future primaries? Does the Freedom Caucus have more chances to pick up new seats (like in Florida)? I hope not.

Never said Forbes was a member of the FC.

My point is that the Freedom Caucus is likely to at least expand their influence inside the GOP (becoming proportionnally more important), or even picking seats.

[windjammer]

So Republicans screwed up once again in an open seat lol

[windjammer]

I'm still hoping for a Mccain loss, but I know that won't happen lol

[windjammer]

Any races called yet?

[windjammer]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  5 minil y a 5 minutes Voir la traduction
In safe GOP #FL02, Mary Thomas (R) leading Neal Dunn (R) 42%-38%, but Dunn's base of Bay County hasn't reported votes yet. Bad sign for her.

[windjammer]

Yes, Rubio won every county.

Also, hoping that Neal Dunn wins in FL-02.

It seems it's going to happen

[windjammer]

Anyway,
Garcia is obviously going to win lol. Trump will get totally demolished in this district.

[windjammer]

Anyway,
Garcia is obviously going to win lol. Trump will get totally demolished in this district.

He underperformed the top of the ticket against the corrupt David Rivera and if florida is a toss up like recent polls show trump can't be underperforming Romney by as much as you wish

Florida won't be a toss up
And Obama carried this district by 11 points in 2012.

[windjammer]

Anyway,
Garcia is obviously going to win lol. Trump will get totally demolished in this district.

He underperformed the top of the ticket against the corrupt David Rivera and if florida is a toss up like recent polls show trump can't be underperforming Romney by as much as you wish

Florida won't be a toss up
And Obama carried this district by 11 points in 2012.

The last couple of polls show it will be and the Obama stat proves Garcia has a problem with underperforming the top of the ticket

Clinton is going to win this district by a big margin, I'm not worried at all.

[windjammer]

So they again nominated the worst for an open seat? Paul Babeu lol lol

[windjammer]

yaaasss McCain

Ward > McCain you should want new people in.

Look, this isn't the same as say, Utah, or Idaho, for example. If Lee or Crapo had lost their primaries, either seat would remain Republican. This one, on the other hand, is not like that. McCain vs. Kirkpatrick is Likely R. Ward vs. Kirkpatrick, on the other hand, would Lean D. Glad the Arizona Republicans are as smart as the Indiana Republicans and chose the electable candidate. If you really want someone new to take this seat, you'll have to wait at least another six years. Sorry.

I think Lean rep and toss up would be more appropriate.