New Zealand general election, 20th September 2014

[Hifly]

Important to note that Labour are also down by a greater margin than the Nationals.

And there's a debate today which will be Cunliffe's one and only chance.

[Hifly]

Labour sinking lower in latest Herald Digipoll. NZ First are over the threshold.

National 50.7 (up 0.7)

Labour 24.1 (down 1.1)

Greens 11.4 (down 2.3)

NZ First 5 (up 0.7)

Maori Party 1 (up 0.3)

Internet Mana 3.4 (up 1.3)

Conservatives 3.3 (up 0.7)

Act 0.3 (down 0.3)

United Future 0.2 (down 0.2)

[Hifly]

Labour is continuing to sink lower in all three polls out today.

It appears as if the scandals have actually helped the Nationals, and that NZ First will make it into the next parliament.

[Hifly]

So are we going to start thinking about predictions?

PM Key will win a third term, and the Nats will continue to control Parliament.  That much is clear.  The question rather should be whether they can win enough seats such that they can govern without coalition partners. 

I don't believe they will govern in their own right. The polling I've seen is quite odd - I had a look at Napier. Which is  NAT held seat on a margin of about 11%. I have no idea about the kind of seat... so who knows what it means.

However, the 2011 Result saw the Nats win 52% of the electorate votes and 48% of the party votes. But the polling I've seen has the LAB candidate winning 39% of the electorate vote (this is an open seat and the NAT candidate is at 33%) and the NAT party vote at 44% with Labor down 4% and the Greens up 3%

Frankly, it's going to be interesting. I expect swings against the NATS, swings to the Greens and probably a hold steady for Labour.

That "odd" poll from Napier is down to the entrance of a popular Conservative candidate who's pulling a significant portion of the electorate vote. Don't attempt to make nationwide predictions based on that.

[Hifly]

Labour have taken Te Tai Tokerau from Mana! Praise Jesus!