I think that Trump would get around 12% of the black vote. You guys have to remember that Bush got 11% of the black vote against Kerry, and Trump is a much better fit for black voters because of the reasons I listed.
Bush got 11% before the surge of new African-American voters following Obama's candidacy (see the rise in black turnout from 2004 to 2008, 2012). The blacks who gave Bush 11% are probably still voting GOP; the difference is that they're now being drowned by other blacks who just entered the electorate.
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