Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.
Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.
On the contrary, I think this election is less likely to have a dramatic swing either way because of the universal name ID. looking at the last 15 elections, some candidates had inflated early poll numbers because of low name-recognition, which made them poll like Generic D/R: Dukkakis in early 1988 likely led over Bush for this reason. But we won’t see that sort of polling swing in this cycle
