Is NH-01 unique in this pattern?
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  Is NH-01 unique in this pattern?
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Author Topic: Is NH-01 unique in this pattern?  (Read 1196 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« on: October 29, 2019, 09:45:22 AM »
« edited: October 29, 2019, 09:50:13 AM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »

Beginning with the re-election of incumbent Carolyn Shea-Porter (D) in the 2010 midterms and ending with the election of Chris Pappas in the 2018 midterms, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District alternated between the same two candidates four times.  Not surprisingly, NH-01 (R+2) is considered to be one of the most competitive districts in the nation.  This was a Bush-Bush-Obama-Obama-Trump district. 

2003-07: Jeb Bradley (R)
2007-11: Carolyn Shea-Porter (D)
2011-13: Frank Giunta (R)
2013-15: Carolyn Shea-Porter (D)
2015-17: Frank Giunta (R)
2017-19: Carolyn Shea-Porter (D) - Retired.
2019-??: Chris Pappas (D)

That's five party flips, four between the same two candidates. 

Is NH-01 unique in this aspect? While a small few other districts have likely flipped back and forth like this, are there any other districts where the same two figures have traded places in this manner?
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Gracile
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 10:02:04 AM »

IL-10 flipped back and forth from between Bob Dold and Brad Schneider in about the same timeframe as well.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2019, 10:06:18 AM »

IL-10 flipped back and forth from between Bob Dold and Brad Schneider in about the same timeframe as well.
How did I forget that.
Anyway il 10th to tossup again
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2019, 10:15:38 AM »

IL-10 flipped back and forth from between Bob Dold and Brad Schneider in about the same timeframe as well.

Thank you! It comes close.  Between 2011 and 2018, IL-10 (a surprisingly D+10 district) flipped back and forth between Dold (R) and Schneider (D) three times:

2001-10: Mark Kirk (R)
2010-11: Vacant
2011-13: Bob Dold (R)
2013-15: Brad Schneider (D)
2015-17: Bob Dold (R)
2017-??: Brad Schneider (D)

In 2008, the district went for Obama over McCain 63%-36% (D+27), but re-elected Kirk (R) 52.6-47.4.  

The district voted for Obama again in 2012, giving him a 58-41% victory over Romney (D+17), while Schneider (D) defeated incumbent Dold by a slim 1.2% margin (49.4-50.6).  

Even after giving Hillary Clinton a commanding 29% victory over Trump in 2016 (61-32), Schneider only won over Dold by about 6% (53-47).

That's pretty amazing on its own.
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BRTD
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2019, 10:41:11 AM »

IN-09 last decade:

2002: Baron Hill (D) (defeated Mike Sodrel)
2004: Mike Sodrel (R)
2006: Baron Hill (D)
2008: Baron Hill (D) (defeated Mike Sodrel)
2010: Todd Young (R) (defeated Mike Sodrel in the primary)

Not quite the same but it had the exact same candidate matchup four times in a row and if not for a primary upset would've five times.
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Skunk
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2019, 10:52:32 AM »

People talked about this possibly happening in NE-02 until Ashford lost the primary against Eastman.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2019, 11:00:56 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 11:05:11 AM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »

People talked about this possibly happening in NE-02 until Ashford lost the primary against Eastman.

Off-topic, but yeah, wasn't Lee Terry (R) one of the only Republican incumbents that lost to a Democratic challenger during the 2014 midterms? (I think it was two, but I can't remember the name of the other incumbent). 
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Perlen vor den Schweinen
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2019, 11:57:23 AM »

People talked about this possibly happening in NE-02 until Ashford lost the primary against Eastman.

Off-topic, but yeah, wasn't Lee Terry (R) one of the only Republican incumbents that lost to a Democratic challenger during the 2014 midterms? (I think it was two, but I can't remember the name of the other incumbent). 

Yes. They other was Steve Southerland in FL-02 losing to Gwen Graham.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2019, 01:38:35 PM »

People talked about this possibly happening in NE-02 until Ashford lost the primary against Eastman.

Off-topic, but yeah, wasn't Lee Terry (R) one of the only Republican incumbents that lost to a Democratic challenger during the 2014 midterms? (I think it was two, but I can't remember the name of the other incumbent). 

Yes. They other was Steve Southerland in FL-02 losing to Gwen Graham.

If we’re also talking governorships, Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania lost to Tom Wolf and Sean Parnell in Alaska lost to Bill Walker.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2019, 04:23:02 PM »

IL-10 flipped back and forth from between Bob Dold and Brad Schneider in about the same timeframe as well.
How did I forget that.
Anyway il 10th to tossup again

IL-10 will be fiercely contested if Democrats nominate a socialist. Just you wait.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2019, 05:03:29 PM »

TX-23 is another bloody district.

5 possible party flips over 15 years

2004 : R
2006 : D (flip)
2008 : D
2010 : R (flip)
2012 : D (flip)
2014 : R (flip)
2016 : R
2018 : R
2020 : probably D (flip)
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