May God Help Us All: the Presidency of Ségolène Royal

[Hash]

May God Help Us All: the Presidency of Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal (PS) 50.44%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) 49.56%

Ségolène Royal is elected President of the French Republic on the evening of May 6, 2007; despite most polls showing her narrowly behind the candidate of the right, Nicolas Sarkozy.




A new timeline starts. It will be written by me, but I will open it up to the 'audience' by giving them some decisional power over major issues.

So, to kick it off, dear readers and audience: who should be Ms. Royal's Prime Minister?

[Bo]

Looking forward to it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's great. I'm very interested to see what will happen.

And I guess she'd have nominated Strauss-Khan, or why not... Bayrou ? It could have been a deal between them, with Bayrou endorsing her between the two rounds, allowing her to win.

[Hash]

Note: This is a personal assessment based on her program, the conditions of the time, and my non-objective view of Royal, the left, the right, the centre and all that. Feel free to respectfully disagree.


The Beginnings

On the evening of May 6, 2007; the major networks predicted a 50.5-49.5 result in favour of Royal by the close of polls, and her short and narrow victory was officialized by around 21:00. From her campaign headquarters, Royal spoke to a large and restless crowd. She called on all citizens to "participate, together" in the "construction of a France which can face, head-on, the pressing social, economic, environmental and political challenges of the twenty-first century". In a style reminiscent of her campaign, she promised to her voters "a new era, an era of participative democracy and just order" and she promised that her future government "would ensure a France where all are equal, where there are no divisions caused by race, class or income."

On the opposing side, defeated candidate Nicolas Sarkozy congratulated her rival somewhat coldly, and warned that "the right will remain a real opposition, and the right will take its lessons from this defeat and learn from the defeat." Despite his loss, he retained control over most of his party, with most of his supporters laughing off suggestions that he would retire. His closest supporters noted that Jacques Chirac did not retire following his 1981 and 1988 electoral defeats.

On the centre, a weird game began. Prior to the runoff, François Bayrou had announced the creation of a new party in the centre, the Democratic Movement (MoDem), an effort to "unite and organize the 18% of French citizens who voted for neither left nor right, the 18% which voted for a new deal in politics." He had rejected Sarkozy rather clearly prior to the runoff, but by May 9, he played down rumours that he was a favourite for Matignon. On May 15, a day before Royal's inauguration, he said that he had rejected all offers to enter government "because it would render me unable to be a neutral critic of both left and right." Despite some protests from more centre-right members of the old UDF, most incumbent UDF deputies joined the new MoDem. Some, like Pierre-Christophe Baguet and André Santini, who had supported Sarkozy by the first round joined the UMP.

On May 17, the day following her inauguration, Royal announced her new Prime Minister: Dominique Strauss-Kahn. The new government was composed largely of the PS, with places given to members of the old 'Plural Left': the Greens, the Radicals, the PCF and the MRC.

Prime Minister: Dominique Strauss-Kahn (PS)
Vice Prime Minister, Minister responsible for the Environment and Territorial Planning: Jean-Marc Ayrault (PS)
Minister of the Economy, Finances and Industry: Didier Migaud (PS)
Minister of Justice: Laurent Fabius (PS)
Minister of National Education, Research and Technology: Jean-Christophe Cambadélis (PS)
Minister of Foreign and European Affairs: Pierre Moscovici (PS)
Minister of the Interior: Jean-Louis Bianco (PS)
Minister of Defense: Gilbert Le Bris (PS)
Minister of Culture and Communications: Vincent Peillon (PS)
Minister of Labour: François Rebsamen (PS)
Minister of Health: Yves Cochet (Greens)
Minister of Agriculture: Jean Glavany (PS)
Minister of Transports and Equipment: Marie-George Buffet (PCF)
Minister of State Reform and Decentralization: Arnaud Montebourg (PS)
Minister of Youth and Sports: Cécile Duflot (Greens)
Minister of the Overseas: Christiane Taubira (PRG)
Secretary of State for Social Cohesion and Equality of Chances: Najat Vallaud-Belkacem (PS)
Secretary of State for Cooperation and La Francophonie: Manuel Valls (PS)
Secretary of State for Housing: Robert Navarro (PS)
Secretary of State for International Trade: Émile Zuccarelli (PRG)
Secretary of State for the Budget: Sylvie Andrieux-Bacquet (PS)
Secretary of State for Veterans: Jean-Pierre Chevènement (MRC)
Secretary of State for Commerce and Tourism: Patrick Braouezec (PCF)

There are some grumblings within the Greens, MRC and PCF about the little place given to them in cabinet, and some choices are criticized by the right (Fabius, Montebourg). What is noted is the 'n2' spot in government given to environment under the title of 'Vice Prime Minister', like Royal's platform promised.

The public honeymoon with the new government and President starts out strong, a good sign for the June legislative elections:

Ipsos poll: Approval of Ségolène Royal (May 30, 2007)
Approve 65%
Disapprove 35%

Ipsos poll: Legislative election voting intentions (May 30, 2007)
PCF 5%
PS 30%
Greens 5%
DVG-PRG 2%
Majority 42%
UMP 28%
DVD-MPF 4%
Right Opposition 32%
MoDem 15%
FN 9%
EXG 2%

[Barnes]

This looks very good.

[Bo]

This looks very good.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting. I tend to think that DSK as Prime Minister could prevent most of the harm of Royal and implement effective policies (otherwise I guess he would resign). But this hope probably won't be realizd in your TL, it would become too boring.
Waiting for the following.

[Hash]

The Legislative Elections

The first DSK government was to be a temporary one, filled between the election of the President and the election of the new legislature - the 13th legislature. As a result of its status, the government avoided much governing in the period between May 16 and June 10.

The PS played nice with its allies, giving the PRG a total of 35 constituencies, the MRC around 5 and around 20 for the Greens. The new Minister of Youth and Sports, the leader of the Greens Cécile Duflot obtained the candidacy of the left in the 6th constituency of the Val-de-Marne (Fontenay-sous-Bois). Chevènement, albeit not a major player in the new cabinet, would attempt to reconquer his old constituency (Belfort-2), lost in 2002 to the UMP.

Bayrou, who had recently refused to participate in the new government and founded the MoDem, ran candidates in almost all constituencies. The new party was quite diverse, including a number of UDF deputies who had, unlike Bayrou, supported Sarkozy on May 6. Despite their reticences about Bayrou's strategy, they participated in the foundation of the MoDem. The new party indicated that its deputies would not "unconditionally support the government, while not obstinately opposing the government" and that its members were to be independent in their political choices. It was a daring bet for Bayrou.

The UMP, although dishearted by Sarkozy's defeat, mounted a strong challenge to the new majority. It vowed to be an active albeit constructive opposition, and called on voters not to give 'full powers' to Royal and to elect a strong opposition. In some constituencies, the UMP supported right-leaning MoDem incumbents, in an attempt by Sarkozy and his allies to entice defections from right-leaning MoDemers.

The PS and its allies urged voters to give the new majority "a strong majority on which to rely on, a strong majority to immediately launch the reforms which we were elected to carry out." The 'new' Plural Left's slogan was reconstruisons notre France avec la gauche.

Ipsos poll: Legislative election voting intentions (June 8, 2007)
PCF 5%
PS 33%
Greens 5%
DVG-PRG 2%
Majority 45%
UMP 27%
DVD-MPF 3%
Right Opposition 30%
MoDem 14%
FN 8%
EXG 3%

As expected, the new President continued her honeymoon with the voter, with 68% approving of Royal's performance by June 10.

The PS itself did not win an absolute majority on June 17, but with its allies, it held a sizeable majority. The UMP, on the other hand, was also comforted in its positions, not suffering the 'wave' that the PS had suffered in 2002, following Chirac's re-election. It retained a large caucus and could be a strong opposition. The MoDem did not match the UDF's 27 seats in 2002, but it came out strong of the elections and Bayrou's strategy seemed to have been vindicated, for now.

13th Legislature
PS 262 (+122)
PCF 22 (+1)
PRG 13 (+6)
DVG 13 (+6)¹
Greens 5 (+2)
MRC 2 (+2)
Left 317 (+138)
UMP 232 (-126)
DVD 6 (-6)²
MPF 1 (nc)
Right 239 (-132)
MoDem 21 (-6)

¹ PS dissidents 6, PPM 2, MIM 1, PPDG 1, GUSR 1, CSD 1, PSG 1
² DVD 4, DLR 2



Dominique Strauss-Kahn (PS): re-elected Val-d'Oise-8 (62%)
Jean-Marc Ayrault (PS): re-elected Loire-Atlantique-3 (71%)
Didier Migaud (PS): re-elected Isere-4 (65%)
Laurent Fabius (PS): re-elected Seine-Maritime-4 (70%)
Jean-Christophe Cambadélis (PS): re-elected Paris-20 (62%)
Pierre Moscovici (PS): elected Doubs-5 (54%)
Jean-Louis Bianco (PS): re-elected Alpes-de-Haute-Provence-1 (55%)
Gilbert Le Bris (PS): re-elected Finistere-8 (56%)
Vincent Peillon (PS): elected Somme-3 (52%)
François Rebsamen (PS): elected Cote-d'Or-3 (55%)
Yves Cochet (Greens): re-elected Paris-11 (59%)
Jean Glavany (PS): re-elected Hautes-Pyrenees-3 (65%)
Marie-George Buffet (PCF): re-elected Seine-Saint-Denis-4 (59%)
Arnaud Montebourg (PS): re-elected Saone-et-Loire-6 (54%)
Cécile Duflot (Greens): elected Val-de-Marne-6 (51%)
Christiane Taubira (PRG): re-elected Guyane-1 (66%)
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem (PS): elected Rhone-6 (53%)
Manuel Valls (PS): re-elected Essonne-1 (64%)
Robert Navarro (PS): Senator
Émile Zuccarelli (PRG): re-elected Haute-Corse-1 (51%)
Sylvie Andrieux-Bacquet (PS): re-elected Bouches-du-Rhone-7 (58%)
Jean-Pierre Chevènement (MRC): elected Belfort-2 (51%)
Patrick Braouezec (PCF): re-elected Seine-Saint-Denis-2 (67%)

Parliamentary Groups
Socialist 272
UMP 234
Communist and Republican 24
Arc-en-Ciel 21²
MoDem-UDF 21
Non-Inscrits 5<sup>3

2</sup> Group formed by the PRG, Greens, PPM and MIM
³ 2 DLR (Dupont-Aignan, Villain), 1 MPF (Besse), 1 DVD (Sarlot) and Philippe Folliot

Errors, especially in the math, is possible.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Finally, a detailed and well-writen French TL

[Bo]

Just curious: Does Hillary Clinton get a boost in the U.S. from Royal winning since many American news outlets would probably say: France Elects a Woman President, Will The U.S. Be Next?

[Хahar 🤔]

Just curious: Does Hillary Clinton get a boost in the U.S. from Royal winning since many American news outlets would probably say: France Elects a Woman President, Will The U.S. Be Next?

No.

[Bo]

Just curious: Does Hillary Clinton get a boost in the U.S. from Royal winning since many American news outlets would probably say: France Elects a Woman President, Will The U.S. Be Next?

No.

I wasn't asking you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow...
Congratulations for this excellent job, it's really imperssive.

[Electric Feel]

Wishful thinking.

[big bad fab]

- Oh, I've just noticed this one... Very fine and exciting
I've tried to find some constituencies on which I would disagree and... haven't found any !

What will be interesting is to see the positioning of MoDem and UMP, Bayrou indeed trying to be THE opposition.

MoDem is already divided: it will be hard... All the more that Royal may try "ouverture" towards Sarnez, Gouraud, Lepage, etc

- Unfortunately, I didn't intervene early enough on one point on which I disagree: I really think Bianco would have been PM.
Royal and DSK don't like each other at all and, after her victory, she would have tried to gather the biggest possible amount of power.
In 2007, DSK and Fabius would have been sidelined because they were the losers and because they opposed the woman who is now... President.

Expect her to promote ALL the younger leaders (Valls, Peillon, Montebourg, even not royalistes), to boot out the old ones (Fabius, DSK, Auvry, Lang) and... her former husband.
And to promote the less young ones, but frustrated for too long and eagerly waiting for portfolios (Ayrault indeed, Cambadélis).

So, maybe DSK as a President of the National Assembly, or nothing, or even a Sarkozy-like solution (IMF or European Commission) !
Nothing for Fabius, but she would have tried to give something to Bartolone (and when we see Bartolone being now loyal to Aubry in RL, well...).
Lang maybe President of a commission in the National Assembly. For Hollande too.
Nothing for Aubry, definitely out.

Michel Sapin would get a portfolio as well, and Garot and Filipetti (and Danielle Bousquet too ).

But maybe DSK has been chosen only to win the legislative elections... !

[Antonio the Sixth]

But maybe DSK has been chosen only to win the legislative elections... !

Yes, seems pretty logical. But replacing him right after the elections would be pretty stupid, so she's stuck with him for one year or two.

[big bad fab]

But maybe DSK has been chosen only to win the legislative elections... !

Yes, seems pretty logical. But replacing him right after the elections would be pretty stupid, so she's stuck with him for one year or two.

Therefore I deeply regret not to have seen this topic before !

[Hash]

It's too late now anyways, and I fully intend to keep DSK for some time. But I already had something in mind.

[Psychic Octopus]

Excellent! I love timelines written from a country outside of America's perspective.

[Hash]

2007

Following the left's victory in the legislative elections, Strauss-Kahn was named to formed a second government. There was an expansion of the cabinet and some shuffles.

Prime Minister: Dominique Strauss-Kahn (PS)
Vice Prime Minister, Minister responsible for the Environment and Territorial Planning: Jean-Marc Ayrault (PS)
Minister of the Economy, Finances and Industry: Didier Migaud (PS)
Minister of Justice: Laurent Fabius (PS)
Minister of National Education, Research and Technology: Jean-Christophe Cambadélis (PS)
Minister of Foreign and European Affairs: Pierre Moscovici (PS)
Minister of the Interior: Jean-Louis Bianco (PS)
Minister of Defense: Gilbert Le Bris (PS)
Minister of Culture and Communications: Vincent Peillon (PS)
Minister of Labour: François Rebsamen (PS)
Minister of Health: Yves Cochet (Greens)
Minister of Agriculture: Jean Glavany (PS)
Minister of Transports and Equipment: Marie-George Buffet (PCF)
Minister of State Reform and Decentralization: Arnaud Montebourg (PS)
Minister of Youth and Sports: Cécile Duflot (Greens)
Minister of the Overseas: Christiane Taubira (PRG)
Delegate Minister for the Budget: Michel Sapin (PS)
Secretary of State for Ecology and Sustainable Development: Aurélie Filippetti (PS)
Secretary of State for Social Cohesion and Equality of Chances: Najat Vallaud-Belkacem (PS)
Secretary of State for Cooperation and La Francophonie: Manuel Valls (PS)
Secretary of State for Territorial Collectivities: Guillaume Garot (PS)
Secretary of State for Housing: Robert Navarro (PS)
Secretary of State for International Trade: Émile Zuccarelli (PRG)
Secretary of State for the Budget: Sylvie Andrieux-Bacquet (PS)
Secretary of State for Veterans: Jean-Pierre Chevènement (MRC)
Secretary of State for Commerce and Tourism: Patrick Braouezec (PCF)

With a solid majority in the National Assembly, but still facing a Senate on the right, Royal concentrated on solidifying her inaugural moves of her famous 'Pacte présidentiel'. Her first move, promised during the campaign, was to increase the SMIC to €1500 with yearly increases. However, the increase, opposed by the UMP, was also opposed by the left of the left, notably Olivier Besancenot, who noted that the "ambitious move wasn't one" since the increase barely kept up with inflation and price hikes for basic goods. Royal's ambitions to increase salaries were met by the staunch opposition of the employers, and the government struggled to establish coherent numbers on the increase. By the end of the summer, most of the ambitious increases in salaries were postponed indefinitely, angering some on the far-left.

The other social proposition which the government attacked by late summer was Royal's commitment to create jobs for young graduates so that none would need to face unemployment lasting more than 6 months. Passed in August with little right-wing support, the bill planned to create  500,000 'temporary' jobs in cooperation with regions (the vast majority of which were led by the PS).

On the environmental scene, with the strong support of the PS' Green allies, the National Assembly in September decreed a halt to the use of GMOs in fields and in October it passed a large bill including tax cuts for companies deemed to be 'green' and a tax cut, rather vague, for renewable energies.

The left's first real offensive came with the new school year in September, when Cambadélis, with Royal's blessing, decreed the re-establishment of educational positions which had been cut by the right until 2007. Silent on most of the government's "summer agenda", the UMP attacked the government relentlessly on what it called a 'foolish act' and an 'economically disastrous silliness'. With support from trade unions, the government also convened in October a national convention for teachers and educational leaders, with the goal of pushing for a revision of the 'carte scolaire' and an ambitious proposal to limit the number of students in CP-CE1 classes in 'sensible zones' to 17. Already violently criticized by the right, the government stepped in dangerous waters when its proposal, directly from Royal's electoral program, to re-enforce adult presence in schools (with the presence of a second adult in classrooms when needed, in cases of discipline mostly) came under fire from teachers (who went on strike for a few days in late October to protest the government's insistence on that point) and also the right.

On the fertile theme of public security, Interior Minister Jean-Louis Bianco, with the legislature's support, spearheaded the re-establishment of the old neighborhood police, which had been destroyed by the right early on in 2002-2003. The government's intent was partly to establish better relations between police and tough neighborhoods, but also an attempt for the left to regain ground lost to the UMP/FN on the theme of security. However, the government's policy faced a test with very big riots in Villiers-le-Bel (Val-d'Oise) in late November. The newly created neighborhood police failed to defeat the rioters, who were organized and armed relatively well. The government, distraught at the riots, was left with no choice but to send in extra police units from outside. The right, led by Nicolas Sarkozy, seized the theme of security by violently attacking the government's security policy but also what it perceived as the failures of the new neighborhood police. Surprisingly, the UMP gained an advantage with the riots, and not the FN, already weakened in the spring elections.

The government's action also faced criticism for its lack of attention to European issues and world issues. Aside from regularly-scheduled meetings of European leaders in the summer, which Royal attended briefly, she seldom met other world leaders or engaged on diplomatic trips abroad. In July, she met with Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi and later in September with Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero, but the major trip to Washington DC was not on the agenda. She apparently received only a lukewarm congratulation on her election from President Bush, and she was reluctant to travel to Washington. The UMP criticized a President "closed to the world, limited to domestic policies."

By the end of 2007, Royal faced a declining popularity and a mixed record on her platform. Her ambitious plan to increase the SMIC, guarantee youth employment and reform education passed, as well as the creation of the new neighborhood police. Yet, other ambitious moves such as increasing allocations to families, increasing spending or a reform of the institutions were not yet realized.

Overall, in relations with her government and Prime Minister (whom she had shaky relations with), she was seen to be rather authoritarian and omnipresent on the political scene. Her Prime Minister was relatively sidelined, compared to his predecessors, and there were the starts of grumblings within the PS (mostly within her group of rivals: Fabius, Aubry etc) about her style.

Ipsos poll: Approval of Ségolène Royal (December 2007)
Approve 52%
Disapprove 48%

Ipsos poll: Approval of Dominique Strauss-Kahn (December 2007)
Approve 55%
Disapprove 45%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow... As I imagined, the first year is being a toubled one...

The 1500€ SMIC obviously makes no sense, and I think that few people in the PS would really support that. The remaining seems not so bad, and anyways far better than Sarko's policies.

[big bad fab]

Montebourg doesn't seem to have create a big mess in the first six months of the Royal presidency: a good surprise, I guess !

[Barnes]

Bump.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bump.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Update that you lazy bastard!