Let the 2012 Presidential Election Begin

[Whacker77]

How in the world is Montana listed as only leans Republican?  I think this is Chuck Todd trying to hold onto the hope and change of 2008.  I think it's pretty fair to say Montana will be deep red.

[California8429]

How in the world is Montana listed as only leans Republican?  I think this is Chuck Todd trying to hold onto the hope and change of 2008.  I think it's pretty fair to say Montana will be deep red.

It was very close (though that was partly due to Ron Paul) in 08 and they elected a democratic governor. This isn't Alabama nationally. Sure, that's probably the closest they'll get to be democratic (minus any landslides) but you can't say it's safe

[milhouse24]

The GOP nominee will probably be Jeb Bush.

OMG!!! Someone finally listened to what I've been saying for 6 months!!!

Florida and Ohio are the only 2 states that matter, and a lot of people LOVED Bush enough to vote for him twice (3 times actually).  Plus, Jeb doesn't have the baggage from his brother's administration policies.

[milhouse24]

Someone asked What About Charlie Crist?

Thats actually a real good question:  Hes one of two people who could throw a wrench in Obamas 2012 math.  Either he or Mike Bloomberg could be the John Anderson or Ross Perot of 2012 and siphon off plenty of Obama votes allowing Sarah Palin, if she ran and won the nomination to win.  And Charlie Crist is so into himself that I could see him doing it...

Where would Crist get the $ to wage a hopeless national campaign for the presidency?

Heck, where would he get the $ just to round up enough signatures for 50 state ballots?

There are some people in the world who are just like Crist.  They are the type that smarm and sleaze their way into positions of power and prestige.  They also help others who are just like themselves if it benefits their interests.  Crist has many moneyed friends and he is more narcissistic than Bill Clinton and Barack Obama ever dreamed of being.  Crist believed that he deserved to be senator and he could also believe that he deserves to be president.  Additionally, there might be power brokers within the democratic party who want to primary Obama out for their own benefit.  Bill and Hillary Clinton could be sensing opportunity, an opportunity which has only now presented itself  - and it would be unwise and unseemly for her to challenge Obama, but if he could throw Crist into the mix, it may be possible for Hillary to run in 2016 against whatever republican is to win 2012. 

It sounds like a big conspiracy, yes, but Hillary has been hiding out with purpose.  She doesnt want to be associated with the faliures of the past two years and current administration...

Hate to break it to you but Crist has a problem, and that problem is that he has past similarities to Barney Frank, David Dreier, Lindsay Graham, etc.  Therefore there is no way that he can win the Iowa or SC primaries.  If you thought adopting a black child was dirty politics, you don't want to see what they will throw against Crist.

[feeblepizza]

Someone asked What About Charlie Crist?

Thats actually a real good question:  Hes one of two people who could throw a wrench in Obamas 2012 math.  Either he or Mike Bloomberg could be the John Anderson or Ross Perot of 2012 and siphon off plenty of Obama votes allowing Sarah Palin, if she ran and won the nomination to win.  And Charlie Crist is so into himself that I could see him doing it...

Where would Crist get the $ to wage a hopeless national campaign for the presidency?

Heck, where would he get the $ just to round up enough signatures for 50 state ballots?

There are some people in the world who are just like Crist.  They are the type that smarm and sleaze their way into positions of power and prestige.  They also help others who are just like themselves if it benefits their interests.  Crist has many moneyed friends and he is more narcissistic than Bill Clinton and Barack Obama ever dreamed of being.  Crist believed that he deserved to be senator and he could also believe that he deserves to be president.  Additionally, there might be power brokers within the democratic party who want to primary Obama out for their own benefit.  Bill and Hillary Clinton could be sensing opportunity, an opportunity which has only now presented itself  - and it would be unwise and unseemly for her to challenge Obama, but if he could throw Crist into the mix, it may be possible for Hillary to run in 2016 against whatever republican is to win 2012. 

It sounds like a big conspiracy, yes, but Hillary has been hiding out with purpose.  She doesnt want to be associated with the faliures of the past two years and current administration...

Hate to break it to you but Crist has a problem, and that problem is that he has past similarities to Barney Frank, David Dreier, Lindsay Graham, etc.  Therefore there is no way that he can win the Iowa or SC primaries.  If you thought adopting a black child was dirty politics, you don't want to see what they will throw against Crist.

Exactly. Which is why Crist would run as an independent during the general election, if he were to run.

[Whacker77]

Running as an Independent has already worked so well for Crist, right?

[Whacker77]

I think there are only two Republicans who could beat a very beatable Obama.  One is Jeb Bush and I listed why that is earlier in this discussion.  His candidacy really boils down to winning Ohio and he's president.  A bit simplistic, but likely the case.  Many Republicans think it's too soon for Jeb, but waiting for a better time to run doesn't guarantee anything.  Who knows how things will look in 6 or 10 years.

The other name I think can challenge Obama is Jon Huntsman.  Obama thought he put him off the playing field by making him ambassador, but it could be a powerful message if an Obama appointee resign his office to challenge him.  Not having the taint of government over the last two years might be important as well.  He's certainly a conservative, but I can already hear the Tom Tancredo wing of the party barking.

I really think Jeb and Huntsman are the only two Republicans with a credible case to make.  Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Net, and Palin are retreads, polarizing, or just flat out boring.

[feeblepizza]

I think there are only two Republicans who could beat a very beatable Obama.  One is Jeb Bush and I listed why that is earlier in this discussion.  His candidacy really boils down to winning Ohio and he's president.  A bit simplistic, but likely the case.  Many Republicans think it's too soon for Jeb, but waiting for a better time to run doesn't guarantee anything.  Who knows how things will look in 6 or 10 years.

The other name I think can challenge Obama is Jon Huntsman.  Obama thought he put him off the playing field by making him ambassador, but it could be a powerful message if an Obama appointee resign his office to challenge him.  Not having the taint of government over the last two years might be important as well.  He's certainly a conservative, but I can already hear the Tom Tancredo wing of the party barking.

I really think Jeb and Huntsman are the only two Republicans with a credible case to make.  Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Net, and Palin are retreads, polarizing, or just flat out boring.

Jeb and Huntsman will not run this year. The others will embarrass themselves.

[Whacker77]

Jeb and Huntsman will not run this year. The others will embarrass themselves.

Then Obama is re-elected.

[feeblepizza]

Jeb and Huntsman will not run this year. The others will embarrass themselves.

Then Obama is re-elected.

Correct.

[Inmate Trump]

I'm seriously considering voting for Obama in '12.

I'm not quite there yet.  But I'm more and more open to the idea every day.


NEVER thought I'd even consider it.  

[Whacker77]

The crop of Republicans is so weak this time.  That is the reason why I think Jeb is a possibility.  The bigwigs will go to him and beg him to run in order to save the party from a terrible defeat.

[milhouse24]

Exactly. Which is why Crist would run as an independent during the general election, if he were to run.

Well, that would be pointless for him as an independent, he might split the Florida vote, but no other state would care about him.  The Christian Conservatives wouldn't want to vote for him, even though he has an awesome last name.  However a Romney-Christ ticket might be the best idea ever!  "Vote for Crist, Jesus would!"

[dnvrguy02]

well it;s soon to say.

[Harry Hayfield]

After tallying 236 House Races, I have the swing to the GOP running at 7.5% in the Mid Terms, and would like member's thoughts on this map (showing a national 7.5% swing to the Republicans in 2012)

[Ben Romney]

its a good place to start

if the economy not improves Obama will lose

I think NC IN VA FL NE1 are safe for the GOP
OH leans GOP
PA NH WI IA NV are toss-ups
COleans blue
+8EV more of the new EV map in 2012

[sentinel]

its a good place to start

if the economy not improves Obama will lose

I think NC IN VA FL NE1 are safe for the GOP
OH leans GOP
PA NH WI IA NV are toss-ups
COleans blue
+8EV more of the new EV map in 2012

I disagree. I think IN and NE-1 are the only ones you listed that we can consider strong GOP.
PA, NH, WI, IA, NV, NC, FL, VA are all definitely going to be in play if the economy doesn't improve, however; if the economy does improve all of those will easily go for Obama.

[Ben Romney]

how can you think he would win NC FL or VA???

no way

[California8429]

how can you think he would win NC FL or VA???

no way

FL will be swing. NC can be strong. VA leans (not impossible but highly unlikely).

[pbrower2a]

After tallying 236 House Races, I have the swing to the GOP running at 7.5% in the Mid Terms, and would like member's thoughts on this map (showing a national 7.5% swing to the Republicans in 2012)

It depends on how well the GOP is perceived in 2012. If the GOP majority in the House misbehaves by obstructionism and witch hunts that go nowhere, then President Obama wins much as he did in 2008 (probably exchanging Indiana for Missouri) and the Democrats win back the House of Representatives even if unemployment remains as high as it is now.   If it makes some reasonable compromises with President Obama, then the President wins re-election by a bare majority with the House Republicans losing some seats net (as usually happens when weak Representatives who underperform -- they get voted out). You know the type -- someone in New York State who really should be representing a district in the Texas Panhandle).   

Unless the Republicans are able to enforce major voter suppression, the President probably gets re-elected.  The shift of votes from a comparatively young population to a comparatively old population  is unlikely to hold. Presidential elections are far bigger events than midterm elections, and with the President campaigning to save his political career if necessary -- he has most of the tools.

...Of course if the witch hunts find real witches the President is cooked. 

[pbrower2a]

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How in the world is Montana listed as only leans Republican?  I think this is Chuck Todd trying to hold onto the hope and change of 2008.  I think it's pretty fair to say Montana will be deep red.[/quote]

First, I did not do that analysis, and I would have some different estimates on which states are "tossups" and which ones "lean".  Because of the way they voted in the midterms I would move Michigan or Pennsylvania into the tossup category while moving Colorado and Nevada with certainty and probably New Mexico into the "Lean Democratic" category. I couldn't move both Michigan and Pennsylvania into the tossup category without moving some other state (Florida?) into the Lean Democratic category. One needs a model for a 50-50 split here.

Unless voting patterns based on race change drastically, no way does President Obama have any chance of winning Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, or Mississippi. I think that he now has a better chance of winning Kentucky, Tennessee, or West Virginia than any of those states.

Strange things can happen, and this analysis cannot predict them. Suppose that the "illegal alien" demagoguery turns into a major scandal in Arizona. Then Arizona goes most likely to "Leans Republican" if not Tossup.

The model does not account for the sort of opponent that President Obama has. Someone who just can't relate to the Rust Belt loses Ohio (as well as Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire), and the election. If the GOP has a d@mnyankee nominee who can't relate well to the South, then whatever gains  in the North comes at the cost of States not so firmly Northern.

It also fails to suggest what happens if President Obama runs a very different campaign from that of 2008. Should he run an overtly populist campaign as most Democrats have done before him, then he might win, but paradoxically with a map more typical of one of Bill Clinton's two wins.

If the 2012 election shows an electorate similar to that of 2012 in ideology, then President Obama loses in a near-landslide, winning only what is in red or maroon, essentially the opposite of how he did in 2008, and to make things symmetrical in an odd way, he loses a Congressional district in Maine instead of winning one in Nebraska.

First Read's map fails for a 55-45 split either way. 55-45 and severer splits aren't so interesting even if they are realized.