Clouds on the Horizon: One View of the Future

[Vosem]

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

Good evening, and welcome to MSNBC’s live coverage of Election Night 2012. I’m your host, Chris Matthews. Our panel will be joining us shortly.

Before we begin, let’s review the tumultuous, unpredictable four years of history that have led to this election of spectacular proportions.

Barack Obama was elected President in 2008 in a landslide against his opponent, Senator John McCain of Arizona. The early years of 2009 saw initial success for the administration, with the passage of the stimulus and convincing Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania to switch to his Democratic Party, garnering a so-called ‘filibuster-proof majority’.

Unfortunately, starting with the summer of 2009, Obama’s approval began to decline, as the first health-care fiasco began in full steam, with all forty Republicans attempting to stop his bill from passing. Nevertheless, Obama finally broke the filibuster and passed a bill in December of 2009.

The election of Scott Brown to the Senate from Massachusetts in January of 2010 seemed to spell the end for health-care reform; however, a loophole allowed the House to pass the exact version of the healthcare law just a few months later.

However, this led to extreme unpopularity for the Democratic Party throughout 2010, and finally to Obama’s landslide defeat in the election, losing over sixty House seats (losing the House), but retaining the Senate, 53-47.

2011 saw a resurgence of fortunes in some ways for Barack Obama. The unemployment rate finally began a decline; it was 7.6% at the end of the year. However, the Supreme Court’s 5-4 ruling that the ‘individual mandate’ part of the law was unconstitutional was a major black eye for the administration.

2011 also saw the beginning of the Republican primary nomination. Starting at first ahead of the pack was tea-party favorite and virtual celebrity, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, John McCain’s vice-presidential nominee in 2008. However, she was assassinated on November 12, 2001, by one Wendy McKinnell, a self-professed tea-party member who believed that Palin had betrayed the movement.

The 2012 primaries soon began in earnest, with Senator John Thune of South Dakota winning Iowa and coming a surprisingly close second to Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. Thune appeared set to win the nomination when Newt Gingrich upset him in South Carolina. From then on, Thune and Gingrich fought for the more conservative, tea-party GOP, whereas Romney quickly locked up the moderates and became the frontrunner, essentially winning on Super Tuesday.

Obama began the race with a close, but comfortable lead over Romney; the chaotic GOP primary had allowed Obama to remain above the fray to some extent. Can we have a polling map from May? Ah, yes…

This is an approximate map, of course. Obama leads Romney 332-206.

However, then came the so-called ‘Two Weeks of Terror’, when a stock market collapse in late June led to an extremely quick and very severe round of job losses. Although the unemployment rate had begun increasing a little in the early years of 2012 (it was a bit more than 8% before the Two Weeks), unemployment skyrocketed, and at the end was measured at 10.1%, a gain of nearly two percentage points. Romney took a significant lead…

Romney’s leading by about the same amount; 337-206.

Then, of course, came the round of newspaper discussion about Romney’s running mate, with four choices being seriously considered – Governor Martinez of New Mexico; Governor Kasich of Ohio; Governor Christie of New Jersey; and Senator Rubio of Florida. Ultimately, of course, Romney picked Martinez, whereas Obama kept Joe Biden.

However, a steady recovery of the unemployment rate, and the stock market, began in September, and it proceeded apace with the recovery of Obama’s polling numbers. Let’s have a map with tossups this time, of the current situation…ah, yes…

The race as of now. This map is one of several variants; Romney has 181 votes, Obama 172 votes, whereas 185 are up for grabs. Some swingish states that clearly lean one way or another (the Pacific Northwest; Arizona; the Dakotas) have been marked for the candidate they are leaning toward; others (Massachusetts; Missouri) have been listed as swinging. Let’s take a look at our timetable.

At 7:00, the polls in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont close. 

At 7:30, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia’s polls close.
 
At 8:00, Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Texas. 
At 8:30, polls in Arkansas, close.

At 9:00, polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming close. 

At 10:00, Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, and Utah close. 

At 11:00, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington ring in. 

And at midnight, Alaska polls close.

We’re in for a long night. After this break, we’ll be back with our panel. Stay tuned.

[Vosem]

Before we begin, I would like to credit Yates with inspiring this timeline's format. I know there are a lot of 2012 timelines; this, however, will, with hope, be inspirationally original and will keep you on the edge of your seat.

[Niemeyerite]

Continu

[Vosem]

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

Matthews: Welcome back to MSNBC's live coverage of Election Night 2012. We're here with our panel, who we're going to introduce. Joining us are political analyst James Carville, his wife Mary Matalin, and junior Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri. What you see above is a map of which Senate races are in play. If every tossup, green, state holds, the Senate will be tied 50-50, so tossups are critical.

James, I'll go to you first. What are the big states in play here tonight?

Carville: Well, Chris, this election is a bit of a regression back to the predictable, red-state, blue-state days of 2000 and 2004, though I see your map switches that color code. [Matthews laughs] What happens tonight rests mostly on the three big tossup states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, with a whole host of lesser tossups; like Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin. There's a swing state every hour.

Matthews: Mary, what information do you think we can get from the exit polls?

Matalin: Well, I think it's obvious that the majority of Americans care about the economy more than any other issue. I forget what the poll said exactly, but it was well over half, and that's good for Romney.

Matthews: James, I see you shaking your head.

Carville: My wife's wrong again. Most people who said the economy was the important issue picked Romney – that's true – but it wasn't a big majority, and on almost every other issue – except health-care – it is Obama who dominates.

Matthews: Senator Blunt, how effective do you think the Republican and Democratic turnout machines will be in this election.

Blunt: The Republican one has always been very effective, and it will continue to do so this year. Democratic turnout will be depressed after the Two Weeks.

Matthews: Alright, we're going to begin calling the first states in a few minutes. I want a final prediction from all of you. James, you first.

Carville: I think the economy is helping Romney, but enough people have flipped – enough people have been impressed with the way Obama handled the Two Weeks – that I'll say Obama will squeak in in a tremendous upset. Democrats keep the Senate, again by just a little.

Matthews: Mary, your prediction.

Matalin: I disagree with my husband's prediction. Too many Americans made up their minds during the Two Weeks. I say Romney wins with more than three hundred electoral votes. Republicans take the Senate – keep in mind, 6 tossup states are currently Democratic and just 2 are Republican. Republicans have more room for error.

Matthews: Senator Blunt.

Blunt: I agree with her prediction – I think Romney will win solidly, and Senator McConnell will become Majority Leader.

Matthews: Thank you to our panel, and stay tuned – we begin calling our first states in about thirty minutes. Don't go away.

[feeblepizza]

Great! Please continue .

[Vosem]

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

It's 7:00 and we can begin our first round of projections for the night. Keep in mind, whoever gets 270 electoral votes first wins. We'll keep track of the electoral vote count. Also, if a state is too close to call, we won't be able to call it right away.

Let's get right to it.

At this time, we are able to call the state of Kentucky for Governor Romney.

PRESIDENT
Indiana

[X] Mitt Romney

We can now call the state of South Carolina for Governor Romney.

PRESIDENT
South Carolina

[X] Mitt Romney

Also for Governor Romney at this time is Georgia.

PRESIDENT
Georgia

[X] Mitt Romney

The first state we can call for President Obama is Vermont.

PRESIDENT
Vermont

[X] Barack Obama

The states of Indiana, New Hampshire, and Virginia are too close to call at this time.

Let's see what this does to our electoral map.

At this time, Governor Romney has 33 electoral votes, and President Obama has 3. For Obama supporters, don't be too alarmed, and Romney supporters, don't be too pleased. These states were expected to go their respective ways.

Now, let's take a look at the Senate results.

We can call the Indiana Senate election for Senator Richard Lugar.

SENATE
Indiana

[X] Richard Lugar

We can call Vermont for Senator Bernie Sanders.

SENATE
Vermont

[X] Bernie Sanders

In Virginia, Senator Allen, who was defeated six years ago, and former Representative Tom Perriello are in a race far too close to call. This election will be one of those that decide the Senate.

Keep in mind that, since only one-third of the Senate is up for election this year, 37 Republicans and 30 Democrats are guaranteed reelection. Adding the Indiana and Vermont results to that, Republicans currently have a lead of 38-31. Don't be too shocked, Democrats; most races tonight lean Democratic, to counter the inherent Republican advantage. This ground will be made up quickly.

Let's take a look at governors, shall we...?

We can now project that Representative Pence has been elected governor of Indiana.

GOVERNOR
Indiana

[X] Mike Pence

We can call the New Hampshire election for Governor John Lynch.

GOVERNOR
New Hampshire

[X] John Lynch

At this time, the Vermont gubernatorial election between Governor Peter Shumlin and Vermont Auditor Tom Salmon is too close to call. We'll keep you covered.