New Arizona Poll - Bush opens lead

[GOPhound]

It looks like we are starting to get flooded with state polls now.  Here's another.  The new Survey USA poll of Arizona has it:  Bush 51%, Kerry 42%, Other/Undecided 7%.  

This is a big change from about a month ago when I think Kerry was 2pts ahead.

I agree that at this point it's too early for polls to really mean anything.  However I think all of the polls from this week clearly show that Kerry's momentum has faded and Bush has finally found his footing.

Gut feeling at this point is that it's real close with Bush having the slight edge if the election were held today.  Ask me what I think in 2 weeks and I'll probably say something different.

 

[angus]

 I can sleep now, because I was very worried about Bush losing arizona.  Yeah, right.  I was utterly dumbfounded when I noticed so many maps on this forum showing Kerry winning Arizona, till I realized that most people putting those maps up there had not even finished high school yet.  I don't think the BC04 campaign needs to spend a dime in Arizona.  It's not quite Utah or Wyoming, but I don't think that it's North Korea either.  Arizona is safe.  He ought to be pouring money into Ohio.

[The Vorlon]

I can sleep now, because I was very worried about Bush losing arizona.  Yeah, right.  I was utterly dumbfounded when I noticed so many maps on this forum showing Kerry winning Arizona, till I realized that most people putting those maps up there had not even finished high school yet.  I don't think the BC04 campaign needs to spend a dime in Arizona.  It's not quite Utah or Wyoming, but I don't think that it's North Korea either.  Arizona is safe.  He ought to be pouring money into Ohio.

Do you have a link to the Arizona Poll..?

[angus]

I can give your Democrat Primary polls, but you probably already have those and have compared them to the actual results.  I have no current Arizona polls, but I'll have my eye out for a more serious one.  There is only one poll that matters.

[GOPhound]

Here is a link to the poll:  http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html


Not much info there on how the poll is constructed.  What I do know is that it is another sign that Bush has found his footing and Kerry's "Big Mo" has stalled, at least for the moment.

 

[Gustaf]

Arizona is within Kerry's reach, it's a typical lean state. Arizona is for the Dems what, say, Michigan or Maine is for the Reps. Arizona is on the same level as Arkansas (generically, that is). I think it'll go Bush, but I think Republicans are fooling themselves thinking it's safe.

[muon2]

Here is a link to the poll:  http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html


Not much info there on how the poll is constructed.  What I do know is that it is another sign that Bush has found his footing and Kerry's "Big Mo" has stalled, at least for the moment.

 

SurveyUSA was very close to the final IL Senate primary results in a poll released on Sunday before the vote. If the AZ poll was equivalent, then its probably a decent sentiment of preferences as they stand today.

[agcatter]

Bush won't lose Arizona anymore than Kerry is going to lose say, Vermont.

[Gustaf]

Bush won't lose Arizona anymore than Kerry is going to lose say, Vermont.

I think Arizona is much more likely to vote for Kerry than Vermont is to vote for Bush. Arizona is more on par with Michigan or Maine. Vermont is more like Colorado or Georgia.

[GOPhound]

Bush is going to win Arizona.  Unless Kerry wins big nationally, Bush wins Arizona.  I'd equate Arizona to Delaware for Kerry.  Kerry is going to win it by high single digits probably.

What may make it a little closer are some of the nice things John McCain has been saying about Kerry.  I can see Kerry running ads in Arizona with John McCain's words and how how Bush savaged McCain in the South Carolina primary.  Though in the end McCain will be a good little boy and end up campaigning with Bush.

 

 

[NHPolitico]

Bush is going to win Arizona.  Unless Kerry wins big nationally, Bush wins Arizona.  I'd equate Arizona to Delaware for Kerry.  Kerry is going to win it by high single digits probably.

What may make it a little closer are some of the nice things John McCain has been saying about Kerry.  I can see Kerry running ads in Arizona with John McCain's words and how how Bush savaged McCain in the South Carolina primary.  Though in the end McCain will be a good little boy and end up campaigning with Bush.

 

I don't think Kerry would use McCain's words against Bush in an ad. McCain does support Bush for re-election and I'm sure McCain would tell him that he'd find that inappropriate and that McCain would be less likely to defend him in the future.

[Gustaf]

Bush is going to win Arizona.  Unless Kerry wins big nationally, Bush wins Arizona.  I'd equate Arizona to Delaware for Kerry.  Kerry is going to win it by high single digits probably.

What may make it a little closer are some of the nice things John McCain has been saying about Kerry.  I can see Kerry running ads in Arizona with John McCain's words and how how Bush savaged McCain in the South Carolina primary.  Though in the end McCain will be a good little boy and end up campaigning with Bush.

 

 

Bush won Arizona by a margin of 6.28%. Kerry won Delaware by twice as much, 13.06%. I don't see what would make them alike this time. The state where Gore's margin was closest to Bush's margin in Arizona was Washington, where Gore won by a margin of 5.58%.

[CTguy]

Biden is up for re-election in Delaware...  Kerry will win that state by at least 20 points.  Whereas Arizona will be extremely close since the registered hispanic population has increased substantially since 2000.  I also think it's funny that everyone says New Mexico will likely switch to Bush...  what evidence is there of that?  If anything, New Mexico will be even more democratic since the hispanic population has increased and Bush is generally unpopular for an incumbent.

[zachman]

I'd say Arizona will vote for Bush over Kerry by 3%. The democrats have traditionally been behind there, and that will motivate Republicans to vote.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Biden is up for re-election in Delaware...  Kerry will win that state by at least 20 points.  Whereas Arizona will be extremely close since the registered hispanic population has increased substantially since 2000.  I also think it's funny that everyone says New Mexico will likely switch to Bush...  what evidence is there of that?  If anything, New Mexico will be even more democratic since the hispanic population has increased and Bush is generally unpopular for an incumbent.

I agree about NM. There's really nothing that has happened in the state that would make it more likely to be won by Bush than Kerry. The fact that Richardson won in a landslide is evidence to me that Kerry has a better shot than Gore did.

[JNB]

  About the Hispanic population being a slam dunk for the Democrats, there is one change in 2004 that people forget. Despite Kerry being a Cathoilic, the church itself in the US is less than ethusiastic about him, and since the late 90s, the most liberal Bishops have been replaced by conservative Bishops. Cardinal George of Chicago, an archdiocese that now has a large Hispanic population is becoming an increaseingly outspoken conservative, the new Bishop of Pheonix AZ is a Conservative. While this wont make Hispanics become a GOP group(in fact the most Traditional Catholics have become Bush biggest critics on the right), it also means that there is an additional twist that people have to account for.

[12th Doctor]

  About the Hispanic population being a slam dunk for the Democrats, there is one change in 2004 that people forget. Despite Kerry being a Cathoilic, the church itself in the US is less than ethusiastic about him, and since the late 90s, the most liberal Bishops have been replaced by conservative Bishops. Cardinal George of Chicago, an archdiocese that now has a large Hispanic population is becoming an increaseingly outspoken conservative, the new Bishop of Pheonix AZ is a Conservative. While this wont make Hispanics become a GOP group(in fact the most Traditional Catholics have become Bush biggest critics on the right), it also means that there is an additional twist that people have to account for.

As a Catholic, I can vouch that in some ways, this is true.

[Gustaf]

A lot of good points here. I agree with JNB that Hispanics aren't black, if you know what I mean. But they should still favour the Dems some. I would be interested in hearing about New Mexico since I'd also have thought that it should be fairly likely to go Dem again?

[JNB]

 New Mexico is not like other states that have a large Hispanic population. For one, New Mexico allways has had a large Hispanic population, and as far as I know, before the post WWII population boom, it was a majority Hispanic state, and the old political machine in New Mexico, ran by  Conservative Democrats usually worked out a system where one senator was an anglo and the other was a Hispanic.

  As for the Hispanics themselves in New Mexico, while there has been a large influx from Mexico, traditionally the Hispanics in New Mexico can be traced all the way back to the first Spanish settlements in the 1600s, and there is a element of "old world" Conservatism, a style of Conservatism that is radically different from what is called conservative today.

[GOPhound]

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Bush won Arizona by a margin of 6.28%. Kerry won Delaware by twice as much, 13.06%. I don't see what would make them alike this time. The state where Gore's margin was closest to Bush's margin in Arizona was Washington, where Gore won by a margin of 5.58%.

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Ok, I didn't realize that Gore won Delaware by 13%.  I don't know why but I always think of Delaware as more GOP leaning than most northeast states.  Maybe because I hung out there a lot in college and it seemed pretty socially conservative to me.

Either way I just can't see Kerry winning there, the same way I can't see Bush winning Washington.  These states may be trending the other way, but at least for this election I think they'll go the same way as in 2000.

[Gustaf]

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Bush won Arizona by a margin of 6.28%. Kerry won Delaware by twice as much, 13.06%. I don't see what would make them alike this time. The state where Gore's margin was closest to Bush's margin in Arizona was Washington, where Gore won by a margin of 5.58%.

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Ok, I didn't realize that Gore won Delaware by 13%.  I don't know why but I always think of Delaware as more GOP leaning than most northeast states.  Maybe because I hung out there a lot in college and it seemed pretty socially conservative to me.

Either way I just can't see Kerry winning there, the same way I can't see Bush winning Washington.  These states may be trending the other way, but at least for this election I think they'll go the same way as in 2000.

I agree with that, I am beginning to think that few states will change hands this time and that Kerry will have to win Florida as well as 5 out of NH, NV, OR, WI, MN, IA, MO, AZ.