Referendum in Wales

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While there will be the predicable calls for it given the results, will the results from Monmouthshire do anything to increase the chance of a referendum on whether the county remains in Wales or returns to England?

[YL]

While there will be the predicable calls for it given the results, will the results from Monmouthshire do anything to increase the chance of a referendum on whether the county remains in Wales or returns to England?

The historic county of Monmouthshire, which is the area whose English/Welsh status was once "ambiguous", clearly voted Yes.  (Whereas I presume Radnorshire did not, given how close Powys as a whole was.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well Monmouthshire as a whole overwhelmingly backed the proposals*, so, no. Ignoring that, I don't see how only narrowly rejecting a proposal to deepen devolution (context: Monmouthshire UA was 68% against devolution in 1997) translates into support for leaving Wales. Unification with England is a fringe position with very little support; and what support there is comes mostly from people who have moved their from England.

Of course Monmouthshire could never return to England in any case as it has always been in Wales; the most you can say is that its legal status was confused and disputed owing to generations of incompetence from London-based bureaucratic idiots. The only place in Monmouthshire that doesn't feel Welsh is Monmouth town; even Chepstow and 'bloody old Tory Usk' are clearly Welsh.

*Monmouthshire is now divided between the following council areas: Monmouthshire, Newport, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent and about half of Caerphilly. Edit: and actually part of Cardiff.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whereas I presume Radnorshire did not, given how close Powys as a whole was.)

Radnor will have voted against and might have been the old historic county to do so. As it was certainly the upper Tawe that pushed Powys as a whole over the top, Brecon must have voted yes. The only question mark is over Montgomery; did the west of the county manage to outvote Welshpool, Churchstoke and so on?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While there will be the predicable calls for it given the results, will the results from Monmouthshire do anything to increase the chance of a referendum on whether the county remains in Wales or returns to England?

The historic county of Monmouthshire, which is the area whose English/Welsh status was once "ambiguous", clearly voted Yes.  (Whereas I presume Radnorshire did not, given how close Powys as a whole was.)

I'm not speaking of what the result from such a referendum would be, just whether it might increase the chance of it being held.  Indeed, given the expected results, might it not be a good idea to go ahead and hold the referendum just to shut the English Democrats up?

[Harry Hayfield]

While there will be the predicable calls for it given the results, will the results from Monmouthshire do anything to increase the chance of a referendum on whether the county remains in Wales or returns to England?

If you look in the International What If's, I have posted a scenario where the English Democrats win Newport East and force a referendum on that very issue.