PPP: Palin now tied with Romney for #1

[Tender Branson]

Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you most like to see as the Republican candidate for President next year?

Mitt Romney.................................................... 16%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 16%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 13%
Herman Cain................................................... 12%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 9%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 9%
Ron Paul......................................................... 9%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 4%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 12%

If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you most like to see as the nominee?

Mitt Romney.................................................... 20%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 13%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 13%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 13%
Herman Cain................................................... 12%
Ron Paul......................................................... 11%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 4%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0602.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Cain, Pawlenty & Huntsman would pick up no support from Palin, but Paul does ?

Strange.

[Wiz in Wis]

Cain, Pawlenty & Huntsman would pick up no support from Palin, but Paul does ?

Strange.

Don't overthink it, those are small shifts in small samples.

[Mr. Morden]

Unusually strong showing for Pawlenty.

Btw, not to get to pbrower-like in quoting Nate Silver, but Silver notes that it's extremely rare (but not unheard of) for candidates with name recognition as low as Cain's to be polling in the double digits in presidential primaries:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/27/the-not-so-simple-case-for-taking-herman-cain-seriously/

The other cases where this has happened include Dukakis in 1987, McCain in 1999, and Edwards in 2003.

[Bull Moose Base]

Cain, Pawlenty & Huntsman would pick up no support from Palin, but Paul does ?

Strange.

Not really.  Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Bachmann beneficiaries without Palin.  It's recognition and reveals the mindset of people answering her in these polls.  Maybe it's a big reason why they answered her too.  Iowa poll had same thing and I think it bodes poorly for her.

[Liberté]

Cain, Pawlenty & Huntsman would pick up no support from Palin, but Paul does ?

Strange.

Not really.  Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Bachmann beneficiaries without Palin.  It's recognition and reveals the mindset of people answering her in these polls.  Maybe it's a big reason why they answered her too.  Iowa poll had same thing and I think it bodes poorly for her.

Extremely astute. Palin's support is wide but shallow. If she enters the race and it becomes blistering, she's going to bleed support. That's not to say a Tea Party candidate can't win. But it isn't going to be her.

[ilikeverin]

Tim Pawlenty, what are you doing in the double digits?!?

[Keystone Phil]

Great news for Pawlenty.

[Liberté]

Great news for Pawlenty.

Not necessarily. As Joementum said, Gingrich, Paul and Bachmann benefit from Palin's absence from the race; Pawlenty doesn't. It's obviously absurd to try to extrapolate too much from a single poll and especially this far out, but that would suggest to me that at least in this sample Pawlenty's problem is the opposite of Palin's - his support is a mile deep and an inch wide. He's got to broaden his church, so to speak.

[Keystone Phil]

Great news for Pawlenty.

Not necessarily. As Joementum said, Gingrich, Paul and Bachmann benefit from Palin's absence from the race; Pawlenty doesn't. It's obviously absurd to try to extrapolate too much from a single poll and especially this far out, but that would suggest to me that at least in this sample Pawlenty's problem is the opposite of Palin's - his support is a mile deep and an inch wide. He's got to broaden his church, so to speak.

He's still not well known which is why 13% is decent. The others benefit because they happen to be well known figures. Yes, we shouldn't put too much stock in one poll and it is early but to do this well this earliy is a good start.

[Bull Moose Base]

Great news for Pawlenty.

Not necessarily. As Joementum said, Gingrich, Paul and Bachmann benefit from Palin's absence from the race; Pawlenty doesn't. It's obviously absurd to try to extrapolate too much from a single poll and especially this far out, but that would suggest to me that at least in this sample Pawlenty's problem is the opposite of Palin's - his support is a mile deep and an inch wide. He's got to broaden his church, so to speak.

But what I mean is if Palin doesn't run- and who knows anymore- I don't think those will stay the beneficiaries.  Or to that extent anyway.  Pawlenty or Cain will become more known in Iowa and South Carolina and, each appealing in some way to the kind of person who (I'm guessing) answers Palin in a poll, will pick up second-choice support that now goes to Gingrich, Romney or Paul should she not run.  Or pick off some of her support by outperforming her on campaign trail.

Unusually strong showing for Pawlenty.

Btw, not to get to pbrower-like in quoting Nate Silver, but Silver notes that it's extremely rare (but not unheard of) for candidates with name recognition as low as Cain's to be polling in the double digits in presidential primaries:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/27/the-not-so-simple-case-for-taking-herman-cain-seriously/

The other cases where this has happened include Dukakis in 1987, McCain in 1999, and Edwards in 2003.

No doubt that record bodes well for Cain but I'd speculate you can't quite project his high support among those who know him to those who will know him.  On one hand, I think his outsider status and business experience will have wide appeal.  On the other, based on his appeal to Tea Party types (maybe a cousin of Ron Paul enthusiasm), I'd argue he's the kind of candidate who appeals more to people who are more animated by politics.  That's good for him in that those people are good at turning out.  On the other it may mean that a sizable portion of people who would like Cain already know who he is.  My hunch is the more casual voter who isn't yet paying attention and hasn't yet heard of him is probably more likely drawn to a conventional Pawlenty type (relative to the type of Republican who makes a point of watching the first, 5-person debate in May the year before election year).  In short, I think it's likely Cain's early poll success won't grow at the pace it's now on.  (Though media momentum drives a lot of this.)  Not saying he can't win the playoffs to end up the non-Romney but I wouldn't file him with Dukakis, McCain 00 or Edwards 04 just yet.

[Badger]

All this poll definitively shows is Romney and potentially Palin lead the field, and Huntsman is far behind at the bottom. With all other candidates bunched together within a few points and an MoE of +/- 4.1%, its useless to try determining who is ahead or behind within the second tier pack.

The only other thing this poll confirms is Cain is now a legitimate 2nd tier candidate. Good numbers for Pawlenty, but as this is a notably better than he's had in recent memory, personally I'd like to see another national poll or two before believing he's actually keeping up with the pack.

[NHI]

Romney will win the nomination. It'll be a little tough, but he'll make it through. If Palin runs Romney will trounce her easily.

[Eraserhead]

I want this to be essentially deadlocked between multiple people at the convention!

Sadly, Romney will probably buy his way to victory long before that can happen.

[King]

While the polling nationwide is looking good for T-Paw, the IA and NH polls are not backing it up at the moment.  That can derail a candidacy.  Ask Rudy Giuliani and Wesley Clark

[Liberté]

I want this to be essentially deadlocked between multiple people at the convention!

No you don't. That makes the Republican convention exciting. That creates high ratings and convention bumps. What you want is for the primary to be so scathing that, while a clear winner emerges, s/he is so damaged that the base is completely divided.