VA-PPP: Obama now has negative approvals, but remains ahead of the Republicans

[Tender Branson]

Because Republicans are all unpopular:

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%

...

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 40%

Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 39%

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Herman Cain................................................... 38%

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 37%

...

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable........................................................ 34%
Unfavorable .................................................... 49%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann?

Favorable........................................................ 30%
Unfavorable .................................................... 49%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Perry?

Favorable........................................................ 25%
Unfavorable .................................................... 35%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Herman Cain?

Favorable........................................................ 27%
Unfavorable .................................................... 35%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

Favorable........................................................ 28%
Unfavorable .................................................... 62%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_726925.pdf

Obama vs. Romney

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Expected result is expected.

Pennsylvania still seems odd, though.

[Tender Branson]

Among all Republicans, Herman Cain has the best net favorability among Whites ...

[memphis]

Mirrors the rest of the country. In a rut. Dissatisfied. But even more dissatisfied by the alternatives.

[Mehmentum]

Interesting change in landscape.  Who would have guessed that Obama is doing as well in Pennsylvania as he is in North Carolina?  Or that Virginia is more Democratic than either of them?
 

 

[Tender Branson]

Interesting change in landscape.  Who would have guessed that Obama is doing as well in Pennsylvania as he is in North Carolina?  Or that Virginia is more Democratic than either of them?

VA has been trending towards the Democrats for at least the last 3 Presidential elections.

And I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be more Democratic than the Nation next year, like the polling already suggests now. Obama leads Romney by 4 in VA, but only ties him nationally.

[TheGlobalizer]

A bit surprised at the totals, 90% have decided?  I'm shocked to see Obama around 50% against everyone, particularly in a state that's been electing Republicans (again) and where Macaca is in a statistical tie with Kaine.

[pbrower2a]

Conceding Michigan for a day or so, and replacing Pawlenty with Perry

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Perry

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Christie -- New Jersey
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Daniels -- Indiana (if the state is ever polled)  
Johnson -- New Mexico
McCotter -- Michigan (but I will show him in Ohio for this purpose)
Huntsman -- Utah (but I show him in Idaho)
Roemer -- Louisiana

[Tender Branson]

Conceding Michigan for a day or so

I think there's a fairly good chance that Romney leads Obama by a point or two in the PPP Michigan poll that's coming out today. I think it could be anywhere between trailing by 3 and leading by 5, given the trend from the previous VA poll to the one released yesterday.

BTW: You still need to color IA and FL blue, because there was a Mason-Dixon poll and a Susquehanna poll that had Romney ahead. WI needs to be a 50% shade and I would argue to remove the University poll from TN.

[Heimdal]

Is it possible that we are in the onset of a new realignement? A realignement where the old industrial states in the North shifts into the Republican column. I am thinking about states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio (and maybe Wisconsin). And some of the fast-growing states on the eastern seaboard (like Virginia and North Carolina) shifts into blue states?

It makes sense in a way since the mentioned northern states are becoming older and whiter, which is a demographic that favours the GOP. While North Carolina and Virginia have growing polulations of young college ecucated people, more African-Americans (maybe more Hispanics as well), which is driving the shift to the left.

[The Ex-Factor]

I think that's the general consensus, yes. At least in the Election trends forum. The open question is how the states with strong Hispanic populations out West will vote, and whether Republicans will be forced to alter their nativist positions.

[pbrower2a]

Is it possible that we are in the onset of a new realignement? A realignement where the old industrial states in the North shifts into the Republican column. I am thinking about states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio (and maybe Wisconsin). And some of the fast-growing states on the eastern seaboard (like Virginia and North Carolina) shifts into blue states?

It makes sense in a way since the mentioned northern states are becoming older and whiter, which is a demographic that favours the GOP. While North Carolina and Virginia have growing polulations of young college educated people, more African-Americans (maybe more Hispanics as well), which is driving the shift to the left.

The last PPP poll (just after the PPP poll for Virginia) showed President Obama with a firm lead in Michigan. The last Quinnipiac poll showed Ohio likely to go for President Obama.

Large African-American populations may be of great help to President Obama this time in Michigan, Virginia, and North Carolina. It looks highly likely that the next Democratic nominee for President (in 2016) will be white, so I can imagine those three states might have a less-enthusiastic Democratic base in 2016.   

Here is one factor in the drift of Virginia to the Democrats:

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It's safe to assume that the fans of the Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, and Yankees were brought up in rather liberal-leaning areas. Baseball loyalties are arguably more rigid even than political and religious affiliation and are probably good surrogates for political affiliation.  The Orioles fans have been local favorites in northern Virginia (a very liberal area) for a very long time -- since the second Washington Senators became the Texas Rangers.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_7291118.pdf

Because of Northeasterners relocating to Virginia, Virginia is effectively 'seceding' from the South.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'd think anyone who answered Orioles or Cubs has the patience to give Obama four more years.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Red Sox Nation Imperium penetration into Virginia: 11% complete.

[krazen1211]

GOP up 45-42...should be great to win the State Senate and gerrymander the Congressional map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Va can go either way but if McDonnell is VP selected then Romney wins.

[DrScholl]

PPP found otherwise about McDonnell

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/virginia-miscellaneous.html

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[TheGlobalizer]

I'd think anyone who answered Orioles or Cubs has the patience to give Obama four more years.

No, Orioles fans probably vote out every bum.  They (we?) still reminisce of the good ol' days of Jim Palmer, Brooks, Frank, so we'll keep throwing darts until we get a winner.