Predict The Primary Polls After This Debate
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Author Topic: Predict The Primary Polls After This Debate  (Read 477 times)
Wonkish1
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« on: September 23, 2011, 02:05:21 PM »

I think it would be interesting to see folks predictions for the polls coming out this next week after this debate.

Here’s Mine

Romney 28
Perry 21
Cain 13
Gingrich 11
Paul 9
Bachmann 4
Santorum 1
Huntsman 1

Lets hear your thoughts!
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The Vorlon
Vorlon
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2011, 02:09:08 PM »

I think it would be interesting to see folks predictions for the polls coming out this next week after this debate.

Here’s Mine

Romney 28
Perry 21
Cain 13
Gingrich 11
Paul 9
Bachmann 4
Santorum 1
Huntsman 1

Lets hear your thoughts!

First Tier

Perry 30 ish
Romney 25 ish

Second Tier

Cain 10 ish
Gingrich 10 ish
Paul 10 ish

Irrelevant Tier

Bachmann
Santorum
Huntsman
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Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2011, 02:10:01 PM »

Little to no change other than maybe slight bumps for Huntsman and Johnson.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2011, 02:17:37 PM »

Perry - 25-30% (slight decline due to debates but mostly due to waning of initial burst of enthusiasm)
Romney - 25-30% (bump, but not ahead of Perry yet)
Paul - 5-10% (can't possibly go higher than 15% nationally)
Cain - 5-10% (don't expect his support to increase)
Gingrich - 5-10% (up in a few polls, but I doubt it'll amount to much)
Bachmann - 5-10% (meh)
Santorum - <5% (obvious he's not going anywhere)
Johnson - <5% (don't expect much, but pollsters might start to mention him)
Huntsman - <5% (when will they stop inviting him to debates?)

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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2011, 02:20:18 PM »

The RCP avg is currently:
Perrry: 28.4   
Romney: 20.6   
Paul: 8.9   
Bachmann: 7.7   
Gingrich: 6.6   
Cain: 5.6   
Santorum: 2.0   
Huntsman: 1.4

In two weeks I expect it to be:
Perrry: 27   
Romney: 23   
Paul: 9   
Bachmann: 6   
Gingrich: 6   
Cain: 6   
Santorum: 3   
Huntsman: 2
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2011, 02:30:06 PM »

I don't know, but after last night's debate, my grandfather finally saw the light and said he was now in Romney's camp. This was after he went from Bachmann to Perry. He said Romney looks like the only one who can be taken seriously.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2011, 03:14:34 PM »

Not much change, if any.
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