Reality Check: It's Been Warm

[BigSkyBob]

I've read a series of extrapolations about how the economy is allegedly booming. It isn't. 2011 came in at 1.7% GDP growth. That's a real number, and, it isn't good.

The poor weather of winter typically slows economic activity [such as construction.] Because of that fact, economic numbers are seasonally adjusted. This winter's weather has been usually warm rendering the "seasonal adjustment" misleading.

When springtime runs around on the calender, the economic numbers will be misleadingly adjusted downwards. 

[Marokai Backbeat]

If I ever had doubt that Republicans and right-wingers in general actively hate any good economic news, seeing the struggled naysaying over the job numbers today has finally convinced me.

[Politico]

What we hate is seeing out-of-touch Washington politicians spin data in an attempt to polish mediocrity. We can do a lot better than this.

[Miles]

Yes, 'come to think of it, it seems like its been pretty warm lately down here in Louisiana. Any other weather insights for me?

[Napoleon]

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions could have prevented this, Bobby.

[krazen1211]

Paul Krugman:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/09/opinion/one-good-month.html?pagewanted=2&src=pm


At last, a favorable surprise on jobs: estimated payroll employment rose 243,000 in January, above almost everyone's expectations. You can't blame the administration for trying to play up the good news, and for being dismayed when the sound of popping Champagne corks was drowned out by the crackle of gunfire. But has the economy, after so many false starts, finally started to deliver?

After three years of lousy job performance, we should be seeing very big employment gains -- and even after last month's report, we're not. It would take about four years of reports as good as the one for January 2012 before jobs would be as easy to find as they were in January 2001.

For three years, they've had nothing but red ink to show for their efforts. Now they've had one good but not great month.

Still, on the face of it there's nothing to recommend Mr. Obama's approach

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If you look at Presidents from 1929-2008, every Democratic President had a higher annual increase in jobs than every Republican President.

That is, each one of the 6 Democrats (Roosevelt, Truman, JFK, LBJ, Carter, Clinton) beat each one of the 7 Republicans (Hoover, Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush, Bush II) in the resulting 42 comparisons.

Obama has been a lame Democrat, but I'm sure McCain or Romney would be worse.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

If you look at Presidents from 1929-2008, every Democratic President had a higher annual increase in jobs than every Republican President.

That is, each one of the 6 Democrats (Roosevelt, Truman, JFK, LBJ, Carter, Clinton) beat each one of the 7 Republicans (Hoover, Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush, Bush II) in the resulting 42 comparisons.

Obama has been a lame Democrat, but I'm sure McCain or Romney would be worse.

Source?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So Bob, do you believe in man-made global warming?

[minionofmidas]

Actually, it's goddam effing cold. Much of january was quite warm though.

[BigSkyBob]

Paul Krugman:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/09/opinion/one-good-month.html?pagewanted=2&src=pm


At last, a favorable surprise on jobs: estimated payroll employment rose 243,000 in January, above almost everyone's expectations. You can't blame the administration for trying to play up the good news, and for being dismayed when the sound of popping Champagne corks was drowned out by the crackle of gunfire. But has the economy, after so many false starts, finally started to deliver?

After three years of lousy job performance, we should be seeing very big employment gains -- and even after last month's report, we're not. It would take about four years of reports as good as the one for January 2012 before jobs would be as easy to find as they were in January 2001.

For three years, they've had nothing but red ink to show for their efforts. Now they've had one good but not great month.

Still, on the face of it there's nothing to recommend Mr. Obama's approach

Seasonally adjusted, payrolls were up 243,000. In absolute numbers, payrolls were down over two million jobs. Zero hedge had a series of posts about how the jobs number is a giant guestimate passed off as authoritarian.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If you look at Presidents from 1929-2008, every Democratic President had a higher annual increase in jobs than every Republican President.

That is, each one of the 6 Democrats (Roosevelt, Truman, JFK, LBJ, Carter, Clinton) beat each one of the 7 Republicans (Hoover, Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush, Bush II) in the resulting 42 comparisons.

Obama has been a lame Democrat, but I'm sure McCain or Romney would be worse.

Source?

Here are the numbers. I corrected Bush for his complete 8 years.

Roosevelt 5.3
Johnson 3.8
Carter 3.1
Truman 2.5
Clinton 2.4
Kennedy 2.3
Nixon 2.2
Reagan 2.1
Coolidge 1.1
Ford 1.1
Eisenhower 0.9
G. Bush 0.6
G.W. Bush 0.1
Hoover -9.0

http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/t/113920.aspx

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Has anybody observed more construction projects than normally occur in winter?