NM-Sen: Can Wilson win Hispanics?

[RogueBeaver]

The Lingle problem on a much smaller scale: too many straight-ticketers in a presidential year.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/can-heather-wilson-a-moderate-republican-win-over-new-mexicos-latino-voters/2012/07/16/gJQAxcippW_story.html

[Niemeyerite]

Can Wilson win? Yes.

Can Wilson win Hispanics? No.

[tmthforu94]

I think she can win enough needed to win. Heather would be an excellent addition to the US Senate. She has an uphill climb, but its possible.

[Miles]

PPP's report out today has Heinrich leading 56-33 with Hispanics, though Wilson is up 53-40 with whites. Wilson would probably need to win in a landslide to win the Hispanic vote.

[RogueBeaver]

Which isn't happening. Nor do I think she can win in a presidential year. Why the underwater approvals though?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think Obama takes New Mexico by at least 10 points and Heinrich takes the seat because Democrats usually vote Down-Ticket more than Republicans do. And I think he makes a presidential run in 2016.

[Talleyrand]

I think Obama takes New Mexico by at least 10 points and Heinrich takes the seat because Democrats usually vote Down-Ticket more than Republicans do. And I think he makes a presidential run in 2016.

Why would Heinrich make a presidential run in 2016? He'd be a first-term senator, who likely underperformed Obama in his race, plus he lacks the starpower and historical significance Obama had in 2008. I understand he's young, attractive, progressive, and potentially charismatic, but I don't see it happening, unless he gets a excellent high-profile convention speech this year, and even then, it's a long shot.

[Zioneer]

I think Obama takes New Mexico by at least 10 points and Heinrich takes the seat because Democrats usually vote Down-Ticket more than Republicans do. And I think he makes a presidential run in 2016.

Why would Heinrich make a presidential run in 2016? He'd be a first-term senator, who likely underperformed Obama in his race, plus he lacks the starpower and historical significance Obama had in 2008. I understand he's young, attractive, progressive, and potentially charismatic, but I don't see it happening, unless he gets a excellent high-profile convention speech this year, and even then, it's a long shot.

I think he'll wait until 2020; he's only 40 after all. 8 years from now will only make him 48, and he could even wait until 2024, when he'll be 52.

Or he could be a VP for various Democratic contenders through those years.

[timothyinMD]

I think she can win enough needed to win. Heather would be an excellent addition to the US Senate. She has an uphill climb, but its possible.

Heather would be a phenomenal senator.  I second that!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

New Mexico is lucky to have two really strong candidates in this race. (Massachusetts has two candidates whom different types of people who live in Massachusetts would consider strong, but they probably wouldn't be anywhere else.)