Could the Republicans make any gains in 2016?

[morgieb]

Opposite to the 2014 thread.

Of course 4 years is much harder to predict than 2, but the Democrats only have:

Hawaii
California
Washington
Oregon
Nevada
Colorado
New York
Connecticut
Vermont
Maryland

to defend.

So?

[RogueBeaver]

Nevada if Reid retires.

[Miles]

Nevada if Reid retires.

Yep, Sandoval should be a shoo-in if Reid retires.

Maybe Colorado too, though they'd need a high-caliber candidate.

[Mr.Phips]

Nevada if Reid retires.

Yep, Sandoval should be a shoo-in if Reid retires.

Maybe Colorado too, though they'd need a high-caliber candidate.

If Bennett couldnt be beaten in perfect storm year like 2010, he will not be beaten.  The state continues to get more Democratic. 

[Miles]

Nevada if Reid retires.

Yep, Sandoval should be a shoo-in if Reid retires.

Maybe Colorado too, though they'd need a high-caliber candidate.

If Bennett couldnt be beaten in perfect storm year like 2010, he will not be beaten.  The state continues to get more Democratic.  

Well, Buck was a horrible candidate. A decent Republican would have taken him out, despite Bennet's superior campaign effort. Going forward though, I feel pretty good about Bennet.

[Mr.Phips]

Nevada if Reid retires.

Yep, Sandoval should be a shoo-in if Reid retires.

Maybe Colorado too, though they'd need a high-caliber candidate.

If Bennett couldnt be beaten in perfect storm year like 2010, he will not be beaten.  The state continues to get more Democratic.  

Well, Buck was a horrible candidate. A decent Republican would have taken him out, despite Bennet's superior campaign effort. Going forward though, I feel pretty good about Bennet.

A lot of horrible Republican candidates won in 2010.  Look at Allen West, Renee Ellmers, Ron Johnson, Chip Cravaak, etc. 

[後援会]

Ron Johnson was a decent candidate. A relatively non-offensive businessman who unites every wing of the GOP. That's actually pretty hard to accomplish. After all, Mitt Romney couldn't do it.

Anyways, bad candidates who won despite being bad doesn't prove that Bennett would have still won if the Republican candidate was much better.

The only problem for Colorado Republicans is if they actually have that candidate.

[Miles]

Ron Johnson was a decent candidate. A relatively non-offensive businessman who unites every wing of the GOP. That's actually pretty hard to accomplish. After all, Mitt Romney couldn't do it.

Anyways, bad candidates who won despite being bad doesn't prove that Bennett would have still won if the Republican candidate was much better.

The only problem for Colorado Republicans is if they actually have that candidate.

This.

[Talleyrand]

Nevada is in danger if Brian Sandoval runs, whether Reid retires or not.

Washington is a likely hold, but I could see Rob McKenna or Jaime Herrera Beutler making it competitive.

[Talleyrand]

We haven't had a net gain in this Senate class since 1986. By 2016, it will have been thirty years.  I think there's about an 80% chance we'll gain more than we lose.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Looking at things now, I'd say all seats are safe with the exception of Colorado and Nevada.  However, the demographic changes could easily make those two states out of reach for the Republicans, as well.