More evidence that FL is out of reach: Obama-Romney tied with early voters!

[Lief 🗽]

Title is obviously sarcastic.

http://saintpetersblog.com/2012/10/exclusive-poll-romney-obama-deadlocked-at-49-each-among-floridians-who-have-already-voted-nelson-up-5-over-mack/

Among those who have already voted:
Romney 49%
Obama 49%

Nelson 50%
Mack 45%

[Tender Branson]

That should be good news because 6% more Republicans have voted so far than Democrats.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Nelson is obviously going to win by more than 5%. So this shows that Obama will probably win FL.

Probably.

[Minnesota Mike]

Detailed results (PDF)

http://www.stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2012_General_Election_Florida_October_20.pdf

Independent Voters

Obama 49.6%
Romney 46.7%

[Yank2133]

Yeah, FL is still a toss up.

[Vosem]

Early voters have usually tilted very heavily Democratic (I know in Iowa McCain won on Election Day by 2.5%; the early votes were just so Obama they swamped that), so I would say this should be good news for Romney. However, there are some unusual circumstances in Florida that could cause Republicans to be more active early voters than in the rest of the country (they're more elderly in FL, for instance) and obviously Romney's not gonna win FL by 12-13 points. On balance it probably does mean FL is out of reach for Obama unless the election nationally really turns towards him; I don't know the details of who votes early in Florida so I won't comment on the Senate race, except that it's obviously good for Nelson that he's stocked up some lead (though I would've thought he's running more than 5 points ahead of Obama -- could be problematic, but he'll likely win anyway).

[pa2011]

It's unclear from this whether "early" includes both in-person and absentee.  Probably absentee because don't think early  in person voting has even started in Florida. If that is the case, this is good news for Obama, since absentee ballots in Florida  usually tilt Republican, heavily elderly voters. But I am skeptical of all these polls about early voting. Seems very easy for a pollster to get someone on the phone to say, "yea, I already voted."

[opebo]

Early voters have usually tilted very heavily Democratic (I know in Iowa McCain won on Election Day by 2.5%; the early votes were just so Obama they swamped that), so I would say this should be good news for Romney. However, there are some unusual circumstances in Florida that could cause Republicans to be more active early voters than in the rest of the country (they're more elderly in FL, for instance)

Isn't early voting domination by Democrats just in states where high percentages of whites are Democrats, such as Iowa?  I would have thought minority voters rarely vote early. In Florida presumabely a large majority of whites lean Republican.

[SPQR]

Early voters have usually tilted very heavily Democratic (I know in Iowa McCain won on Election Day by 2.5%; the early votes were just so Obama they swamped that), so I would say this should be good news for Romney. However, there are some unusual circumstances in Florida that could cause Republicans to be more active early voters than in the rest of the country (they're more elderly in FL, for instance)

Isn't early voting domination by Democrats just in states where high percentages of whites are Democrats, such as Iowa?  I would have thought minority voters rarely vote early.

Why is that?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Just because a state is close doesn't mean it's volatile enough to tip.

Just as Ohio is very likely to go to Obama even though him and Romney are polling close, Florida is very likely to go to the governor.

[J. J.]

Early voters have usually tilted very heavily Democratic (I know in Iowa McCain won on Election Day by 2.5%; the early votes were just so Obama they swamped that), so I would say this should be good news for Romney. However, there are some unusual circumstances in Florida that could cause Republicans to be more active early voters than in the rest of the country (they're more elderly in FL, for instance)

Isn't early voting domination by Democrats just in states where high percentages of whites are Democrats, such as Iowa?  I would have thought minority voters rarely vote early. In Florida presumabely a large majority of whites lean Republican.

Actually just over 25% of the electorate in early voting was black in NC in 2008 and so far in 2012.

[opebo]

Isn't early voting domination by Democrats just in states where high percentages of whites are Democrats, such as Iowa?  I would have thought minority voters rarely vote early.

Why is that?

Just seems a whitebread thing to do.

Anyway if you look at the link provided above, its about 69% non-Hispanic white, while Florida is only about 53% non-Hispanic white, so it looks as if I maybe at least somewhat correct in the Florida case.

[J. J.]

Title is obviously sarcastic.

It probably shouldn't be.

[Tender Branson]

Early voters have usually tilted very heavily Democratic.

Not in FL. Republicans have usually held large leads among FL absentee voters of up to 20%. Democrats have cut it to 6% this year. Even in 2008, Republicans had a double-digit lead among absentee voters. So, this is really good news.

[J. J.]

Early voters have usually tilted very heavily Democratic.

Not in FL. Republicans have usually held large leads among FL absentee voters of up to 20%. Democrats have cut it to 6% this year. Even in 2008, Republicans had a double-digit lead among absentee voters. So, this is really good news.

The eliminated some early in person voting, which accounts for that. 

[muon2]

Early voters have usually tilted very heavily Democratic (I know in Iowa McCain won on Election Day by 2.5%; the early votes were just so Obama they swamped that), so I would say this should be good news for Romney. However, there are some unusual circumstances in Florida that could cause Republicans to be more active early voters than in the rest of the country (they're more elderly in FL, for instance)

Isn't early voting domination by Democrats just in states where high percentages of whites are Democrats, such as Iowa?  I would have thought minority voters rarely vote early. In Florida presumabely a large majority of whites lean Republican.

In IL early voting was originally set up to help unions get their identified voters to the polls. They would arrange for a van to take people from a work site over lunch, for instance. That population is going to be more D, and I assume there are some of the same dynamics in IA as in IL.

Slowly the GOP is learning how to sell early voting. It still mostly involves people who would have been absentee. One of the best angles in the suburbs is letting voters know that both sides tend to stop robocalls one someone has voted.

[opebo]

In IL early voting was originally set up to help unions get their identified voters to the polls. They would arrange for a van to take people from a work site over lunch, for instance. That population is going to be more D, and I assume there are some of the same dynamics in IA as in IL.

Slowly the GOP is learning how to sell early voting. It still mostly involves people who would have been absentee. One of the best angles in the suburbs is letting voters know that both sides tend to stop robocalls one someone has voted.

I see, thanks for the information.  So, either way, it is probably a somewhat whiter phenomenon than the electorate as a whole.  I stand by my theory that its Dem-favoring is likely to be much less in high-minority states than in whiter states.

[pbrower2a]

Early voters have usually tilted very heavily Democratic (I know in Iowa McCain won on Election Day by 2.5%; the early votes were just so Obama they swamped that), so I would say this should be good news for Romney. However, there are some unusual circumstances in Florida that could cause Republicans to be more active early voters than in the rest of the country (they're more elderly in FL, for instance) and obviously Romney's not gonna win FL by 12-13 points. On balance it probably does mean FL is out of reach for Obama unless the election nationally really turns towards him; I don't know the details of who votes early in Florida so I won't comment on the Senate race, except that it's obviously good for Nelson that he's stocked up some lead (though I would've thought he's running more than 5 points ahead of Obama -- could be problematic, but he'll likely win anyway).

Early voters in Ohio may be very different from early voters in Florida. Many of the early voters (really absentee voters) in Florida are comparatively-elderly and largely-white snowbirds who leave New York or Michigan soon after the trees lose their leaves or after the chill gets nasty -- and when Florida becomes less hot and humid. Early voters in Ohio are disproportionately young and minority voters who don't want to wait for Election Day and find a three-hour wait to vote because they live in the "wrong" precinct. People do not 'winter' in Ohio as they do in Florida.