OH-SUSA: Obama's heroic lead triumphantly enduring against Romney onslaught

[pepper11]

This poll is a joke.

They are saying 609 of 625 registered voters are likely to vote. That's 97.5% voter turnout. I am guessing just a few more than 16 people in 625 just might not vote.  But yes, if turnout is 97.5 %, Obama will win.

[Speed of Sound]

The good news for Romney is that he is actually winning among likely voters 46/44. The bad news is that Obama is leading with actual voters 58/39...and 26% say they have already voted.

Last week Obama lead with actual voters 57/38 and they were tied with likely voters. At that time 18% had voted.

Also SUSA is one of the few (if only?) IVR pollsters that also have a way of polling with mobiles. Obama has consistently done better with the polls that can access more than just landline voters in OH. Over 50% of Ohio adults use a mobile as their primary phone.

Yeah, that is good news if your a Democrat.

Early voting looks like it may save Obama in the end.

Looks like that the early voters are not shifting towards Romney in any way...

Don't let JJ know you said that!

[Lief 🗽]

This poll is a joke.

They are saying 609 of 625 registered voters are likely to vote. That's 97.5% voter turnout. I am guessing just a few more than 16 people in 625 just might not vote.  But yes, if turnout is 97.5 %, Obama will win.

That's not really how it works...

[pepper11]

This poll is a joke.

They are saying 609 of 625 registered voters are likely to vote. That's 97.5% voter turnout. I am guessing just a few more than 16 people in 625 just might not vote.  But yes, if turnout is 97.5 %, Obama will win.

That's not really how it works...

"SurveyUSA interviewed 725 state of Ohio adults 10/20/12 through 10/22/12. Of the adults, 625 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 609 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already voted or to be certain to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline."

[Likely Voter]

All the OH polls have shown Obama getting a big lead in early voting. Strangely yesterday's OH poll had 20% as early voters with Obama leading them 54 to 39. So the margin was actually smaller than SUSA, but CBS also had Obama leading by 5. That would have to mean that Obama also lead among those who have yet to vote.

[Lief 🗽]

This poll is a joke.

They are saying 609 of 625 registered voters are likely to vote. That's 97.5% voter turnout. I am guessing just a few more than 16 people in 625 just might not vote.  But yes, if turnout is 97.5 %, Obama will win.

That's not really how it works...

"SurveyUSA interviewed 725 state of Ohio adults 10/20/12 through 10/22/12. Of the adults, 625 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 609 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already voted or to be certain to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline."

Yeah, but that doesn't mean that SUSA is saying 97.5% of registered voters will vote. A person who actually picks up the phone and agrees to take the survey is more predisposed to vote. A lot of the non-voting registered voters are filtered out because they don't agree to take the survey in the first place.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

All the OH polls have shown Obama getting a big lead in early voting. Strangely yesterday's OH poll had 20% as early voters with Obama leading them 54 to 39. So the margin was actually smaller than SUSA, but CBS also had Obama leading by 5. That would have to mean that Obama also lead among those who have yet to vote.

Obama's ground game is also something that should not be discounted.  It was phenomenal in 2008.  It part of the reason I'm predicting a 3.5% national PV win for him and 303/332 EVs (depends on where Florida goes... I can't say, it's going to be within a pt)

[Likely Voter]

If you want a weird number how can 2% of actual voters still be listed as undecided? 

I guess they forgot who they voted for.

[Lief 🗽]

If you want a weird number how can 2% of actual voters still be listed as undecided? 

I guess they forgot who they voted for.

If you tell someone how you voted, it won't come true!

[5280]

Ohio is the state to decide the election.

Think I've said that several times already, and it's true.

[traininthedistance]

Beautiful.

Confirms that Intrade is currently on crack.

When people put their money on the nice the take off their partison goggles. If they see a poll in the most pivital state with the incumbant at 47% and less than two weeks to go, they will probably not take this as great news for his chances.

Or, some Republicans have decided to blow a wad of cash on manipulating Intrade in the hopes it will influence a "Romney surging!" narrative.  Intrade is still a fairly small market, and is not immune to such shenanigans.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/23/how-to-manipulate-prediction-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes/

[Adam Griffin]

This poll is a joke.

They are saying 609 of 625 registered voters are likely to vote. That's 97.5% voter turnout. I am guessing just a few more than 16 people in 625 just might not vote.  But yes, if turnout is 97.5 %, Obama will win.

That's not really how it works...

"SurveyUSA interviewed 725 state of Ohio adults 10/20/12 through 10/22/12. Of the adults, 625 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 609 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already voted or to be certain to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline."

Yeah, but that doesn't mean that SUSA is saying 97.5% of registered voters will vote. A person who actually picks up the phone and agrees to take the survey is more predisposed to vote. A lot of the non-voting registered voters are filtered out because they don't agree to take the survey in the first place.

Does anyone else find it incredibly sad that this had to be explained to someone?

SUSA is perhaps the best pollster to be monitoring for accurate results, although mileage may vary. It's a bit of a disappointment to see them not polling that much this year. Despite the high number of undecided, I'm inclined toward believing it because SUSA says so. In the final month of 2008, SUSA released three polls showing Obama +2, Obama +4 and Obama +5 (Actual Result: Obama +4.6).

It's Ohio; the battleground of battlegrounds is where I would imagine there was and are the most undecideds per capita. What is telling, though, is that the 47% in this poll is Obama's floor - he is only now beginning to reclaim some of the soft white support he lost at the beginning of the month. On the other hand, Romney's number in this poll should be the result of him consolidating - at least to a small degree - on those fleeing supporters of Obama. Romney just isn't sealing the deal among undecideds like he needs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Beautiful.

Confirms that Intrade is currently on crack.

When people put their money on the nice the take off their partison goggles. If they see a poll in the most pivital state with the incumbant at 47% and less than two weeks to go, they will probably not take this as great news for his chances.

I'd rather be at 47% than 44%.

I was about to say... but I'm glad you took up the mantle of trying to reason with one of the Three Musketeers

The other two are...krazen and J. J. I'm guessing?

[Dumbo]

What will people like Dick Morris and Charles Krauthammer say
if Obama wins Ohio and the election?

[Mister Twister]

What will people like Dick Morris and Charles Krauthammer say
if Obama wins Ohio and the election?

Dick Morris is going to get fired from Fox News if Obama wins the election. Bill O'Reilly himself said so

[Eraserhead]

What will people like Dick Morris and Charles Krauthammer say
if Obama wins Ohio and the election?

Dick Morris is going to get fired from Fox News if Obama wins the election. Bill O'Reilly himself said so

lol, seriously? Or are you trolling again?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Beautiful.

Confirms that Intrade is currently on crack.

When people put their money on the nice the take off their partison goggles. If they see a poll in the most pivital state with the incumbant at 47% and less than two weeks to go, they will probably not take this as great news for his chances.

I'd rather be at 47% than 44%.

I was about to say... but I'm glad you took up the mantle of trying to reason with one of the Three Musketeers

The other two are...krazen and J. J. I'm guessing?

No not J.J., he's his own animal.  Cliffy, of course. 

[Oakvale]

Ohio is the state to decide the election.

Think I've said that several times already, and it's true.

Really groundbreaking idea you've got there.

[Seriously?]

Beautiful.

Confirms that Intrade is currently on crack.

When people put their money on the nice the take off their partison goggles. If they see a poll in the most pivital state with the incumbant at 47% and less than two weeks to go, they will probably not take this as great news for his chances.

Wait? I thought undecideds go to the incumbent by a 2-to-1 margin down the stretch, right? They're undecided because the incumbent is doing such a great job selling his case, right? /sarcasm

[Lief 🗽]

Undecideds always split overwhelmingly towards the challenger. Just ask President John Kerry.

[Mr.Phips]

Undecideds always split overwhelmingly towards the challenger. Just ask President John Kerry.

Bush was greatly helped at the last minute by Bin Liden appearing on TV.  That probably tipped Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico in his favor. 

[Torie]

These headlines are running laps around the Hearst newspapers of old.

[Lief 🗽]

These headlines are running laps around the Hearst newspapers of old.

Thank you!

[Simfan34]

Expressing my feelings towards Ohio would result in my being infracted, so...

[dirks]

D+7...junk