2016 Primary and Caucus Scheduling Thread.

[retromike22]

God I hope they get rid of caucuses by 2016!

Here's what it looks like so far, I take it Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will be before all this.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.html


February
Tuesday, February 2:
Colorado caucuses(1)
Minnesota caucuses(2)
Missouri
Utah(3)

Tuesday, February 23:
Arizona
Michigan

March
Tuesday, March 1:
Colorado caucuses(1)
Massachusetts
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia

Tuesday, March 8:
Alabama(4)
Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi

Tuesday, March 15:
Illinois

Saturday, March 19:
Louisiana

April
Tuesday, April 5:
Maryland
Washington, DC
Wisconsin(5)

Tuesday, April 26:
Connecticut(6)
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island(7)

May
Tuesday, May 3:
Indiana
North Carolina

Tuesday, May 10:
Nebraska
West Virginia

Tuesday, May 17:
Kentucky
Oregon

Tuesday, May 24:
Arkansas

June

Tuesday, June 7:
California (8 )
Montana
New Jersey(9)
New Mexico
South Dakota

Primary states with no specified date:
Florida
Georgia
Kansas(12)
New Hampshire
New York
Ohio(13)
South Carolina

Without dwelling on something that is WELL before its time, FHQ should note that those February states are only problematic in 2016 if the two parties' delegates selection rules mirror the rules from the 2012 cycle. They may or may not. The real problem children, if you will, are the primary states without specified dates for 2016. As of January 2012 they are the free agents for the 2016 primary calendar and the ones that may bear the most intense watching between now and mid-2015. That said, first things first: The first step is a set of rules from the DNC and RNC. We have a ways to go before the parties settle on/finalized something on that front (2014).

--
1 The state parties have the option of choosing either the first Tuesday in March date called for in the statute or moving up to the first Tuesday in February.
2 The state parties must agree on a date on which to hold caucuses by March 1 in the year prior to a presidential election. If no agreement is reached, the caucuses are set for the first Tuesday in February.
3 The Western States Presidential Primary in Utah is scheduled for the first Tuesday in February, but the contest will only be held on that date if the state legislature decides to allocate funds for the primary.
4 The online version of the newly changed statute regarding the presidential primary election date in Alabama has not been updated at the time of writing. The legislation changing the primary date (HB 425) was to have taken effect upon signing according to the enrolled version of the bill.
5 See definition of "Spring primary" for clause dealing with the timing of the presidential primary.
6 The online version of the newly changed statute regarding the presidential primary election date in Connecticut has not been updated at the time of writing. The legislation changing the primary date (HB 6532) was to have taken effect as of July 1, 2011 according to the enrolled version of the bill.
7 The online version of the newly changed statute regarding the presidential primary election date in Rhode Island has not been updated at the time of writing. The legislation changing the primary date (H 5653, S 399) was to have taken effect upon signing according to the enrolled version of the bill.
8 The online version of the newly changed statute regarding the presidential primary election date in California has not been updated at the time of writing. The legislation changing the primary date (AB 80) will take effect on January 1, 2012 according to the a list of bills enacted in 2011.
9 Legislation passed (A 3777) during the 2011 session removed references to the separate presidential primary from the law. The primary referenced in the statute references all primaries in New Jersey.
12 Kansas has not held a presidential primary since 1992. Funds have not been appropriated by the legislature for the primary since that time. That said, there are laws in place providing for a presidential preference primary. Assuming funding, the Kansas secretary of state has the option of choosing a date -- on or before November 1 in the year preceding the presidential election -- that either coincides with at least 5 other states' delegate selection events or is on the first Tuesday in April or before.
13 Depending on the outcome of the ballot initiative in November, Ohio will have either a first Tuesday after the first Monday in March or first Tuesday after the first Monday in May primary date. If the law created by HB 194 is upheld, the primary will move to May. If not, the primary law should revert to the previous March date called for. None of this precludes the Ohio legislature from revisiting all of this prior to the 2016 election.

[Mr. Morden]

Because the RNC has now voted to impose tougher sanctions on states (other than IA/NH/NV/SC) voting before the last week of February, and because the DNC already has even tougher sanctions than that (see FL/MI 2008), my guess is that those early Feb. dates will get moved later.

Here's my predicted early primary calendar:

Mon, Jan. 18th: IA caucus
Tue, Jan. 26th: NH primary
Sat, Feb. 6th: NV caucus
Sat, Feb. 13th: SC primary
Tue, Feb. 23rd: AZ, MI primaries (and maybe FL primary?)
Tue, Mar. 1st: Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday, and everything after, would play out similarly to what FHQ lists.

[Gass3268]

I wish they would let IA, NH, NV and SC go first and then go regional group (12-13 states) that would rotate every four 4 years. Meaning Northeast would go first, then the South, then the Midwest and then the West. In 4 years that process would rotate. It would look something like this:



This is fair as it would probably allow all of the states to have primaries while allowing the traditional states to go early

[Mr. Morden]

I wish they would let IA, NH, NV and SC go first and then go regional group (12-13 states) that would rotate every four 4 years. Meaning Northeast would go first, then the South, then the Midwest and then the West. In 4 years that process would rotate.

That'll never happen though, as long as the states run their own primaries, and the scheduling is set by state law.  Changing to a system like the one you're suggesting would require every state with a primary to change their state law, and many of them would not comply.  The national parties would have to "go to war" with all of the states that don't like the new system, and they have no real appetite for that.

[Gass3268]

I wish they would let IA, NH, NV and SC go first and then go regional group (12-13 states) that would rotate every four 4 years. Meaning Northeast would go first, then the South, then the Midwest and then the West. In 4 years that process would rotate.

That'll never happen though, as long as the states run their own primaries, and the scheduling is set by state law.  Changing to a system like the one you're suggesting would require every state with a primary to change their state law, and many of them would not comply.  The national parties would have to "go to war" with all of the states that don't like the new system, and they have no real appetite for that.

What if both parties did what the Democrats did to Florida and Michigan in 2008? If you go before your schedule date, we won't accept any of your delegates. If both parties did it together wouldn't most states comply?

[Mr. Morden]

What if both parties did what the Democrats did to Florida and Michigan in 2008? If you go before your schedule date, we won't accept any of your delegates. If both parties did it together wouldn't most states comply?

Sure, most states would comply.  But all it takes is a few rogue states to create a big headache for the national parties, as we saw in 2008.  The national parties simply don't care about this issue strongly enough to try for a repeat of the FL/MI fiasco from 2008.  They've now tightened up the sanctions enough to hopefully move the starting point of primary season from Jan. 3 to the middle of January.  Since there aren't that many states that have to move in order to accommodate this, it's not that big a deal.  But the national parties don't care enough about the order of states to try to rock the boat more than that.

[badgate]

A federal takeover of the primary system? Hell no.

[Joe Biden 2020]

A federal takeover of the primary system? Hell no.

I agree.