Not odd at all. I'll say it till I'm blue in the face but nobody will listen. This election will come down to 1 or 2 points worth of swing voters and turnout, which I expect to be high for both sides. Neither side can get more than 52 or so. Every poll has shown and I expect every poll will show very high floors and very low ceilings. Which one they have up or down, especially this far away, is completely irrelevant.
I agree. Neither candidate is likely to get past the low 50's or below the mid 40's.
Also, we're still a ways out from the real start of campaign season. Graham is still basically Generic D, although this poll asked the match-up question again after giving favorable bios of both candidates and Graham had a lead. An iffy way to do polls, but it's something.
My gut still says that in a neutral or better year, Graham wins this.