If Huckabee runs...

[Mister Mets]

Mike Huckabee's hinting at a potential 2016 presidential run. He may just be trying to get free publicity, but he would certainly start out with name recognition and an appeal to a significant part of the Republican base.

If he runs, how does that change the landscape of the Republican primary? Does he have an actual opening? What are the downsides for him and the party?

[eric82oslo]

Mike Huckabee's hinting at a potential 2016 presidential run. He may just be trying to get free publicity, but he would certainly start out with name recognition and an appeal to a significant part of the Republican base.

If he runs, how does that change the landscape of the Republican primary? Does he have an actual opening? What are the downsides for him and the party?

Huckabee didn't run in 2012 because he didn't want to be the one offsetting the first black president and because he knew it would be almost impossible anyways, knowing the tremendous popularity Obama has enjoyed all along. Probably the only US president (in modern times) which has been seen as a rock star, at least since John F. Kennedy.

Now, Huckabee is a serious and likable guy, unlike most other deeply religious politicians like Santorum and his like. He did really well in 2008, winning Iowa and coming much closer to upend McCain than Santorum ever came beating Romney, despite Romney's very obvious flip-flopping flaws. I'm sure Huckabee once more could do really well in 2016 - many were missing him from the 2012 campaign - he has a positive, uplifting message and spirit. He is liked even by independents and many Democrats, despite not being the most liberal/moderate of the Republican crop. I doubt very much that he could beat Hillary, but I think he could do just as well against her as Christie, if not even better.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Mike Huckabee's hinting at a potential 2016 presidential run. He may just be trying to get free publicity, but he would certainly start out with name recognition and an appeal to a significant part of the Republican base.

If he runs, how does that change the landscape of the Republican primary? Does he have an actual opening? What are the downsides for him and the party?

Huckabee didn't run in 2012 because he didn't want to be the one offsetting the first black president

Really?  Where did you hear that?

[hurricanehink]

Similar situation as Jeb. He'll have been out of office for 10 years if he wins in 2016. I think he might start with some decent favorabilities, but once people look at other up-and-comers (Walker, Christie, Martinez, Ryan, Rubio, etc), I think he will fade. Granted, he does seem more down to earth than many of the others (I still remember him appearing on Jon Stewart), so if he's seen as a viable anti-Christie (or whoever is the inevitable fruntrunner in two years), he could be propped up by the media.

[eric82oslo]

Mike Huckabee's hinting at a potential 2016 presidential run. He may just be trying to get free publicity, but he would certainly start out with name recognition and an appeal to a significant part of the Republican base.

If he runs, how does that change the landscape of the Republican primary? Does he have an actual opening? What are the downsides for him and the party?

Huckabee didn't run in 2012 because he didn't want to be the one offsetting the first black president

Really?  Where did you hear that?

Well, for a guy like Huckabee, I'm sure it was a major reason not to run. He's something as special as a Republican with a heart.

He's also very moderate on economic & socially-economic issues, which will be a very important card for him to play in order to win over independents & independently-minded Democrats.

It could prove quite interesting and fun to have two (former) Arkansas citizens play it out against each other in the general.

[Maxwell]

Mike Huckabee's hinting at a potential 2016 presidential run. He may just be trying to get free publicity, but he would certainly start out with name recognition and an appeal to a significant part of the Republican base.

If he runs, how does that change the landscape of the Republican primary? Does he have an actual opening? What are the downsides for him and the party?

Huckabee didn't run in 2012 because he didn't want to be the one offsetting the first black president

Really?  Where did you hear that?

Well, for a guy like Huckabee, I'm sure it was a major reason not to run. He's something as special as a Republican with a heart.

He's also very moderate on economic & socially-economic issues, which will be a very important card for him to play in order to win over independents & independently-minded Democrats.

It could prove quite interesting and fun to have two (former) Arkansas citizens play it out against each other in the general.

So you're basically talking out of your ass? Thanks.

[Mister Mets]

My guess is that he would do well with evangelical, southern and rural voters. He'd probably take away most of Santorum's support, and might even keep Rick out of a presidential race (what's the point of running if it doesn't get attention?) They're both socially conservative fiscally moderate with plans that can protect rural communities. But Huckabee has a more winning personality, and doesn't have the baggage of an 18 point reelection loss.

Huckabee can also damage Cruz by splitting social conservative support, and providing a contrast on economic policy. Any high name recognition candidate who can do well in Iowa hurts Walker.

It's probably great news for Christie if there's another high-profile candidate who is more socially conservative, although it may result in an unwelcome contrast in their personalities.

The effect on Rand Paul would be interesting. They're both southerners, but they probably don't like one another due to differing beliefs. It's possible that Paul can benefit from a contrast to Huckabee among people who wouldn't otherwise back him strongly.

[henster]

Anyone think Huckabee has a deal with Christie and he's running just to siphon Evangelical support from Cruz and Paul?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Anyone think Huckabee has a deal with Christie and he's running just to siphon Evangelical support from Cruz and Paul?

I wonder if something like that happened in the last election for Romney...

[Mister Mets]

Huckabee has nice leads in polls of Iowa and South Carolina primary voters.
http://therun2016.com/huckaboom-polls-show-leads-iowa-south-carolina/

A new benefit for Christie is that Huckabee might help him get second place in Iowa and South Carolina, which should be a positive news story for that campaign. On the flip side, if the top three in Iowa is Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Huckabee, it could make Christie look like a hasbeen right before the New Hampshire primary.

Chris Cilizzia notes his weaknesses: a weak fundraising base, stronger competition among social conservatives and the higher scrutiny that comes with name recognition.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/12/13/mike-huckabee-might-run-for-president-in-2016-its-hard-to-imagine-he-can-win/

[henster]

Anyone think Huckabee has a deal with Christie and he's running just to siphon Evangelical support from Cruz and Paul?

I wonder if something like that happened in the last election for Romney...

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Romney had some deals on the side to keep the TP vote fractured. Notice how nearly every single candidate imploded just as soon as they got close to Romney I think he feared Santorum the most and had others run to fracture the field.

[IceSpear]

Anyone think Huckabee has a deal with Christie and he's running just to siphon Evangelical support from Cruz and Paul?

I wonder if something like that happened in the last election for Romney...

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Romney had some deals on the side to keep the TP vote fractured. Notice how nearly every single candidate imploded just as soon as they got close to Romney I think he feared Santorum the most and had others run to fracture the field.

Santorum was in the 1% tier until he became the very last resort for the not Romney voters.

[Mr. Morden]

Let's not forget just how done Huckabee sounded with electoral politics back in 2010/2011/2012, making dismissive comments about what he had to go through to run for president in '08, like this comment on the debates:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/20/AR2011022003760.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

All of the ghosts of the 2008 race would come back if Huckabee ran again, like his past advocacy of an AIDS quarantine, now in a Twitter/Youtube dominated media environment.  And then of course, in contrast to 2008, we are now post-Clemmons, post-Akin, both of which would cause him a lot of grief.

So no, I don't think Huckabee will run in 2016 (or ever again).  He'll very likely tease another run, though, in an effort to sell books.

[eric82oslo]

Let's not forget just how done Huckabee sounded with electoral politics back in 2010/2011/2012, making dismissive comments about what he had to go through to run for president in '08, like this comment on the debates:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/20/AR2011022003760.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

All of the ghosts of the 2008 race would come back if Huckabee ran again, like his past advocacy of an AIDS quarantine, now in a Twitter/Youtube dominated media environment.  And then of course, in contrast to 2008, we are now post-Clemmons, post-Akin, both of which would cause him a lot of grief.

But he has the smile and the charisma that even goes most Democratic politicians a high note. Please tell me which other Republican politician who is uplifting, smiling and agreeable like that? And then I mean other than the obvious Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice and Jon Huntsman obviously.

[henster]

If Huckabee somehow wins the nomination it would be a relatively easy race for Clinton, she would crush him. I see him only doing well in the Deep South and Appalachia, evangelicals just aren't powerful as they once were.

[BaconBacon96]

If Huckabee runs, then there will be no room for Santorum. He's the more charismatic and liked of the social conservatives.

[Mister Mets]

If Huckabee somehow wins the nomination it would be a relatively easy race for Clinton, she would crush him. I see him only doing well in the Deep South and Appalachia, evangelicals just aren't powerful as they once were.

Huckabee would be the most likely of the top-tier candidates to have an Akin/ Mourdoch style gaffe.

He's a social conservative who may not have realized how easily something that's said to one group can suddenly become a major news story.

He still has some strengths. He's much warmer than the typical politician, and that can go a long way.

[Mr. Morden]

If Huckabee somehow wins the nomination it would be a relatively easy race for Clinton, she would crush him. I see him only doing well in the Deep South and Appalachia, evangelicals just aren't powerful as they once were.

Huckabee would be the most likely of the top-tier candidates to have an Akin/ Mourdoch style gaffe.

Huckabee's own equivalent of an Akin gaffe was his own vociferous defense of Akin, coupled with his onetime appointment of Fay Boozman to be director of the Arkansas Health Department.  That'll come back into the public conversation if Huckabee runs again.

[Blair]

Huckabee doesn't seem that interested in politics, as the member says a couple of posts up his heart just isn't in it and if you add that to his low fundraising ability then you haven't got a great candidate.

I'm also not sure how many social conservatives would vote for him, sure he's popular but there is a lot of competition from people like Jindal who are just as right wing as him on social issues

[IceSpear]

If Huckabee somehow wins the nomination it would be a relatively easy race for Clinton, she would crush him. I see him only doing well in the Deep South and Appalachia, evangelicals just aren't powerful as they once were.

Huckabee would be the most likely of the top-tier candidates to have an Akin/ Mourdoch style gaffe.

Huckabee's own equivalent of an Akin gaffe was his own vociferous defense of Akin, coupled with his onetime appointment of Fay Boozman to be director of the Arkansas Health Department.  That'll come back into the public conversation if Huckabee runs again.

Yup. All Hillary needs to do to win in a landslide is play this ad all across the country:

http://youtu.be/oqTepM3We_U

[Mister Mets]

If Huckabee somehow wins the nomination it would be a relatively easy race for Clinton, she would crush him. I see him only doing well in the Deep South and Appalachia, evangelicals just aren't powerful as they once were.

Huckabee would be the most likely of the top-tier candidates to have an Akin/ Mourdoch style gaffe.

Huckabee's own equivalent of an Akin gaffe was his own vociferous defense of Akin, coupled with his onetime appointment of Fay Boozman to be director of the Arkansas Health Department.  That'll come back into the public conversation if Huckabee runs again.

Yup. All Hillary needs to do to win in a landslide is play this ad all across the country:

http://youtu.be/oqTepM3We_U

I would imagine that voters who remember the name Todd Akin in September 2016 will have already made up their minds, so it's not going to be quite that easy.

Although screw-ups are certainly possible if Huckabee doesn't realize why something is offensive, or if he's unable to understand others' frames of reference.

I'm sure he'll be asked about his support for Akin, as well as Fay Boozman's comments, although he should be able to come up with semi-acceptable answers (It helps that Boozman apologized for his comments, and died nine years ago.)

[IceSpear]

If Huckabee somehow wins the nomination it would be a relatively easy race for Clinton, she would crush him. I see him only doing well in the Deep South and Appalachia, evangelicals just aren't powerful as they once were.

Huckabee would be the most likely of the top-tier candidates to have an Akin/ Mourdoch style gaffe.

Huckabee's own equivalent of an Akin gaffe was his own vociferous defense of Akin, coupled with his onetime appointment of Fay Boozman to be director of the Arkansas Health Department.  That'll come back into the public conversation if Huckabee runs again.

Yup. All Hillary needs to do to win in a landslide is play this ad all across the country:

http://youtu.be/oqTepM3We_U

I would imagine that voters who remember the name Todd Akin in September 2016 will have already made up their minds, so it's not going to be quite that easy.

Well of course people won't remember off hand about Akin. But Hillary will remind them. The only people who could potentially not remember him would be ultra low information voters or people who only started tuning into politics after 2012. He was easily the most high profile Senate candidate in 2012, even eclipsing Elizabeth Warren in terms of media coverage.

[Mr. Morden]

If Huckabee somehow wins the nomination it would be a relatively easy race for Clinton, she would crush him. I see him only doing well in the Deep South and Appalachia, evangelicals just aren't powerful as they once were.

Huckabee would be the most likely of the top-tier candidates to have an Akin/ Mourdoch style gaffe.

Huckabee's own equivalent of an Akin gaffe was his own vociferous defense of Akin, coupled with his onetime appointment of Fay Boozman to be director of the Arkansas Health Department.  That'll come back into the public conversation if Huckabee runs again.

Yup. All Hillary needs to do to win in a landslide is play this ad all across the country:

http://youtu.be/oqTepM3We_U

I would imagine that voters who remember the name Todd Akin in September 2016 will have already made up their minds, so it's not going to be quite that easy.

Well of course people won't remember off hand about Akin. But Hillary will remind them. The only people who could potentially not remember him would be ultra low information voters or people who only started tuning into politics after 2012. He was easily the most high profile Senate candidate in 2012, even eclipsing Elizabeth Warren in terms of media coverage.

It won't get to that point.  It'll be a media meme in the primaries, and not so easy for him to shake.  I don't think Huckabee would have won the nomination anyway, but Clemmons and Akin/Boozman are additional millstones on his neck, above and beyond the baggage he already had in 2008.

I just don't think he's going to run in the first place.  He's just floating the idea to get attention, and sell books….and because he wants people to respect him, so running in the invisible primary for a while and getting decent poll numbers (but not actually running for real, because then he might fall on his face) will help him get that.

[Suburbia]

He seems like he's recently gained weight also. Some grassroots Tea Partiers and some conservatives on Newsmax.com, and other conservative circles don't like him. They think that he's old news and they hate his views on Common Core. A Pence-Huckabee ticket would be formidable, but might be toxic to the country.