How will the GOP win nationally in the next 20 years, or will they?

[Mr. Illini]

I've been playing around with the calculator in a more generic manner recently after the realization that I don't think I have made a Republican victory map in a long time. It made me realize just how difficult the map is right now for Republicans.

I've drawn up a firewall map for the Democrats looking at the next two or three elections using 70% shading.

This map puts the Democrats at 227 electoral votes. Now I highlight the states which are winnable for the Democrats in the next two or three elections (in other words, outside of the GOP's respective firewall).

Now I am going to take the two states currently in green which are Likely D in any case which isn't a GOP landslide in 40% red.

This puts the Democrats at 257 electoral votes with 139 in the GOP firewall and 142 votes at large.

I now put the states in green which are only winnable for the Dems in a massive crushing in gray to take them out of the equation.

This takes us down to 90 at large votes which are to be considered winnable for either side.

Of these, the Democrats can win the election by winning only one of these additional states if they capture Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida, or if they can capture Iowa an Colorado as a pair.

For the Republicans to win, they need to win FOUR of the SIX most populous of these states (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina) plus one of the remaining states (Colorado or Iowa).

It is electorally impossible for them to win if they do not win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia. The only states of these that they can even afford to lose are Colorado and Iowa, and they can't lose both. They can only lose one of these two to still be able to win alongside their other four required victories.

Meanwhile the Democrats need only one of those four states or the Iowa-Colorado pair.

It is looking increasingly like with this firewall that the Dems are building, the GOP will be counting on one of two things for a victory: a massive Democratic failure (basically being turned to as "not the Democrats" should they trash their image) or a GOP rebrand with a new style GOP candidate that will turn the tables in a number of these states.

Otherwise, it is looking like even with the weakest of Democratic performances, they will need to capture only on swing state to pull off the victory while the GOP is required to win near all of them to pull out the narrowest of victories.

Let me know what you think of this analysis. I'm sure some will be in dissent, but it is tough to argue with most of it in my honest opinion. The GOP is not in good electoral shape.

[JRP1994]

I generally agree with this, though I do have a couple of points of dissension.

1) My main disagreement is placing New Hampshire in the firewall. I think it should most certainly be colored green. MAYBE light red, but green would be more appropriate. It's one of the most elastic states in the nation, and has not been won by a double-digit margin since 1988 (and that was for a Republican), and the 2004 election shows that even New England Democrats cannot take it for granted.

2) I would place Minnesota and Nevada in the "light red" shading, rather than the firewall. MAYBE Michigan too. They're not solidly blue, but are either trending that way (NV) or not yet tossups (MI and MN). But I disagree with this less-so than the New Hampshire ranking.

[Mister Mets]

An emphasis on local conditions doesn't matter that much. Whatever party wins the national vote by three points will also get the electoral college.

So the main thing would be to focus on a winning national message. A big factor there would be the national political environment, which tends to go from one party to another. Democrats and Republicans, left to their own devices, screw up in big ways. That's something that the party out of power will always be able to take advantage of.

A counterpoint to the idea that Democrats have a lasting demographic advantage is that many ethnic groups of the past have essentially become part of the majority. As assorted groups do better, they'll care less about identity politics. It happened before with the Irish and the Italians. And we can see it now with more Hispanics considering themselves white.

Cultural flashpoints will be settled. I'd imagine that gay marriage will be uncontroversial in a few years, but the next national disagreement might favor Republicans.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

You're unbearable.  You never provide content.

[GaussLaw]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

You're unbearable.  You never provide content.

He's partially correct.  If the Dems keep nominating candidates like Obama, VA, NC, and CO will trend D relative to the national average.

However, Non Swing Voter is almost certainly wrong about Colorado if Clinton runs(which most of the Dems-win-forever-bots are thinking is a given).  Just about every poll shows that Hillary is weaker in CO than Obama.

By the same token, Appalachia's hard trend right will likely be reversed in 2016 if Clinton runs.  Clinton may or may not carry AR, MO, TN, KY, and/or WV, but she'll definitely bring the margins closer in.

[buritobr]

Has anyone predicted in 1990 that California, Illinois, New Jersey, Vermont, Michigan, Connecticut and Maine would vote for the Democrats in the following six presidential elections?

Has anyone predicted in 1998 that West Virginia would be won by a losing Republican only ten years later? And that West Virginia would be much more Republican than Virginia in 2012?

[Never]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

You're unbearable.  You never provide content.

Rockefeller, I'm right with you about Non Swing Voter. 

Now, OP, I have some quibbles with your firewall, but it looks like you put a great deal of effort into this thread, and honestly, I'm reluctant to criticize a good piece of work. It's something I'd expect from a political newsmagazine. You're probably right to place Wisconsin as Likely D, but I think that Pennsylvania is another story. I could see this state as one that barely goes Republican even if the party loses nationally. Colorado and Florida seem like other states that could still lean to the right of America in presidential elections, but I'm not as confident about this as I am about Pennsylvania.

I think you have nailed it about the GOP counting on the Democrat's failing in order to win elections. That might actually work, but I would hope that Republican's actually try to improve instead of just relying on their opponents failing. Nevertheless, incumbent failure  (or at least some sort of shortcoming) helped Reagan beat Carter, Bill Clinton beat Bush 41, and Obama beat McCain, even though Bush 43 wasn't on the ballot. It is possible that we could see a Republican successfully run against Obama's tenure in office in 2016, but even if it doesn't work then, it could be effective against Obama's hypothetical Democratic successor to the presidency (Hillary Clinton?).

Has anyone predicted in 1990 that California, Illinois, New Jersey, Vermont, Michigan, Connecticut and Maine would vote for the Democrats in the following six presidential elections?

Has anyone predicted in 1998 that West Virginia would be won by a losing Republican only ten years later? And that West Virginia would be much more Republican than Virginia in 2012?

Very good point... 

[Mr. Illini]

Now, OP, I have some quibbles with your firewall, but it looks like you put a great deal of effort into this thread, and honestly, I'm reluctant to criticize a good piece of work. It's something I'd expect from a political newsmagazine.

I appreciate it and I welcome the criticism. I had fun going through the maps step by step and debating my coloring on certain states is just as fun.

You're probably right to place Wisconsin as Likely D, but I think that Pennsylvania is another story. I could see this state as one that barely goes Republican even if the party loses nationally.

You know, we always hear this, but I have never really seen any evidence of it. We were told in each of the last two elections that it would be closer than it was, that it would be a swing state when it really wasn't. My explanation would be that it is less elastic than people think it is with the Democratic strongholds of Philly and Pittsburgh and with the right-trending counties in Western PA being offset by the big Democrat gains in the Philly suburbs. Regardless, it is a point of contention, and an important one with those 20 votes out of PA.

Colorado and Florida seem like other states that could still lean to the right of America in presidential elections, but I'm not as confident about this as I am about Pennsylvania.

They could, and the key is still could, and even beyond that that they need to capture several other states regardless to win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

You're unbearable.  You never provide content.

NC and VA obviously are. Not certain about CO.

[sg0508]

The GOP needs to finally breakthrough in the midwest, which they seemed on their way to doing starting in 2000 and never got the job done. 

[Potus]

We get too bogged down in talks of demographics and trends. People don't vote like that. Latinos don't say "I'm brown, I vote Democrat" that isn't how this works. It's not about the color of your skin, that's just a nice organizational tool for us to analyze the electorate and understand people a little bit better.

Republicans will win when we do two things that are really the same thing. First, show up. This has gotten the most buzz recently. We just need to knock on African American doors as much as we do white doors and we'll see big improvements on that alone. Look at Thad Cochran who does well among African American voters int he Deep South as a republican. Showing up is step one. It's the easy stuff.

The hard part, but most rewarding part, is engaging on the issues. The tax cuts message doesn't get across the way it needs to. We have to develop a strong, clear governing vision of this country. What are we gonna do for the single mom with a kid in a failing school? Today's answer is "cut taxes on job creators and go to church." What our answer needs to be, "We're gonna give your child access to the same world class education the rich family gets. We're gonna fight to make your school the best they can be by having high expectations and rewarding student growth. We're going to work to try to make your life easier because government makes it harder." Talk about what we've got going for us.

Jeb Bush has a great talk on the need for vision. When we communicate that vision, we'll win. Mitt got 47% of the vote on a 100% anti-Obama message without projecting much of anything. I guarantee you 5% of the people would be thrown into a pure tossup or lean r status if we talked about our Amerca.

[NHI]

We get too bogged down in talks of demographics and trends. People don't vote like that. Latinos don't say "I'm brown, I vote Democrat" that isn't how this works. It's not about the color of your skin, that's just a nice organizational tool for us to analyze the electorate and understand people a little bit better.

Republicans will win when we do two things that are really the same thing. First, show up. This has gotten the most buzz recently. We just need to knock on African American doors as much as we do white doors and we'll see big improvements on that alone. Look at Thad Cochran who does well among African American voters int he Deep South as a republican. Showing up is step one. It's the easy stuff.

The hard part, but most rewarding part, is engaging on the issues. The tax cuts message doesn't get across the way it needs to. We have to develop a strong, clear governing vision of this country. What are we gonna do for the single mom with a kid in a failing school? Today's answer is "cut taxes on job creators and go to church." What our answer needs to be, "We're gonna give your child access to the same world class education the rich family gets. We're gonna fight to make your school the best they can be by having high expectations and rewarding student growth. We're going to work to try to make your life easier because government makes it harder." Talk about what we've got going for us.

Jeb Bush has a great talk on the need for vision. When we communicate that vision, we'll win. Mitt got 47% of the vote on a 100% anti-Obama message without projecting much of anything. I guarantee you 5% of the people would be thrown into a pure tossup or lean r status if we talked about our Amerca.

[The Mikado]

In the next reapportionment, Texas, Florida, Georgia...will continue to grow.  Not by too terribly much, but the numbers do get incrementally better for the GOP assuming they can hold Florida (which any winning GOP map requires).

[Hamster]

In 20 years, people who are in their twenties now will be coming into power. Politicians in their thirties and forties now will be "in power," so to speak. They will replace the generation of leaders whose early political careers were spent around the Reagan administration. Politics change. The new leaders won't draw their inspiration from Reagan's Moral Majority, but from Bush's Compassionate Conservatism. I imagine they will be pragmatic enough to craft a new Republican Vision amenable to a younger generation of conservatives who want to smoke pot and don't care who marries who, but demand the government balance its books and keep taxes low. That's not to say the Republican Party will stop being the party of white people; far from it. But with that "moderated" message, combined with the coming de-hyphenization of (white) hispanic-Americans, those changes might be enough to forge a new winning coalition for a few more decades.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

You're unbearable.  You never provide content.

You're removed from reality, yet another contentless post from you laced with a personal attack.  You provide absolutely nothing in response so please don't respond to my posts in the future.  Thanks!

[Bojack Horseman]

Basically their only hope is gerrymandering, changing the rules and having another year like 2010 where everyone went batsh!t insane over Facebook rumors about the Presodent and just check R all the way down the ballot.

[Never]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

You're unbearable.  You never provide content.

You're removed from reality, yet another contentless post from you laced with a personal attack.  You provide absolutely nothing in response so please don't respond to my posts in the future.  Thanks!

You are a prime example of hackishness; Rockefeller was making a fair point. You said Republicans were doomed and only explained that by listing three states and saying they "are trending Democrat". A reasonable observer may very well argue that your post was lacking in content, especially considering the extent to which other posters in this thread explained their views.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

You're unbearable.  You never provide content.

You're removed from reality, yet another contentless post from you laced with a personal attack.  You provide absolutely nothing in response so please don't respond to my posts in the future.  Thanks!

You are a prime example of hackishness; Rockefeller was making a fair point. You said Republicans were doomed and only explained that by listing three states and saying they "are trending Democrat". A reasonable observer may very well argue that your post was lacking in content, especially considering the extent to which other posters in this thread explained their views.

There is no rule that one has to explain every view, especially one as obvious as the fact that Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending democrat, which few people other than relentless pathetic hacks such as you would dispute.  Some of us don't have time to explain every sentence they write in every post on an online forum. 

[Never]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

You're unbearable.  You never provide content.

You're removed from reality, yet another contentless post from you laced with a personal attack.  You provide absolutely nothing in response so please don't respond to my posts in the future.  Thanks!

You are a prime example of hackishness; Rockefeller was making a fair point. You said Republicans were doomed and only explained that by listing three states and saying they "are trending Democrat". A reasonable observer may very well argue that your post was lacking in content, especially considering the extent to which other posters in this thread explained their views.

There is no rule that one has to explain every view, especially one as obvious as the fact that Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending democrat, which few people other than relentless pathetic hacks such as you would dispute.  Some of us don't have time to explain every sentence they write in every post on an online forum.  

It is childish to act like three states moving Democratic makes the next twenty years of presidential elections a done deal. Other Democrats on this thread did a much better job than you explaining their views; in fact, explained their beliefs to such an extent that I was able to accept some of their arguments as valid and useful for predicting how presidential elections will look in the future.

No, not everyone has time to completely explain themself all the time (I'm a very busy guy in the real world, and I understand that), but this does not make it acceptable to post a one-line argument and act like that is all there is to the topic. Personally, I wonder how are you contributing to discourse on this thread by stating what you refer to as an obvious fact.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

You're unbearable.  You never provide content.

You're removed from reality, yet another contentless post from you laced with a personal attack.  You provide absolutely nothing in response so please don't respond to my posts in the future.  Thanks!

You are a prime example of hackishness; Rockefeller was making a fair point. You said Republicans were doomed and only explained that by listing three states and saying they "are trending Democrat". A reasonable observer may very well argue that your post was lacking in content, especially considering the extent to which other posters in this thread explained their views.

There is no rule that one has to explain every view, especially one as obvious as the fact that Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending democrat, which few people other than relentless pathetic hacks such as you would dispute.  Some of us don't have time to explain every sentence they write in every post on an online forum.  

It is childish to act like three states moving Democratic makes the next twenty years of presidential elections a done deal. Other Democrats on this thread did a much better job than you explaining their views; in fact, explained their beliefs to such an extent that I was able to accept some of their arguments as valid and useful for predicting how presidential elections will look in the future.

No, not everyone has time to completely explain themself all the time (I'm a very busy guy in the real world, and I understand that), but this does not make it acceptable to post a one-line argument and act like that is all there is to the topic. Personally, I wonder how are you contributing to discourse on this thread by stating what you refer to as an obvious fact.

Pure GOP hackishness right here...

[Never]

Republicans are screwed because Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending Democrat.

You're unbearable.  You never provide content.

You're removed from reality, yet another contentless post from you laced with a personal attack.  You provide absolutely nothing in response so please don't respond to my posts in the future.  Thanks!

You are a prime example of hackishness; Rockefeller was making a fair point. You said Republicans were doomed and only explained that by listing three states and saying they "are trending Democrat". A reasonable observer may very well argue that your post was lacking in content, especially considering the extent to which other posters in this thread explained their views.

There is no rule that one has to explain every view, especially one as obvious as the fact that Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado are trending democrat, which few people other than relentless pathetic hacks such as you would dispute.  Some of us don't have time to explain every sentence they write in every post on an online forum.  

It is childish to act like three states moving Democratic makes the next twenty years of presidential elections a done deal. Other Democrats on this thread did a much better job than you explaining their views; in fact, explained their beliefs to such an extent that I was able to accept some of their arguments as valid and useful for predicting how presidential elections will look in the future.

No, not everyone has time to completely explain themself all the time (I'm a very busy guy in the real world, and I understand that), but this does not make it acceptable to post a one-line argument and act like that is all there is to the topic. Personally, I wonder how are you contributing to discourse on this thread by stating what you refer to as an obvious fact.

Pure GOP hackishness right here...

Pressing the "ignore" button for you right now, and I'd advise you to do the same for me. You clearly intend to lock horns with me whenever I post something.