Posted: 09/26/2014
Fall has just begun and voters are already casting ballots in key states holding U.S. Senate races that will likely determine which party will be the Senate majority. So far, at least 18,000 people have already cast mail ballots as of Friday, September 26, 38 days out from Election Day on November 4.
Election officials in these states release early voting data that provide clues as to which party currently has an edge. (I track these statistics here.) The $60 million voter mobilization "Bannock Street Project" is a key component of the DSCC's strategy to expand the electorate just enough in the most closely contested states to lift the Democrats' candidates over the top. The fingerprints of these efforts can be seen in these data, as well.
The DSCC's investment appears to be paying off. There are signs Republicans are not going to cede early voting, but their efforts are being swamped by the Democrats' mobilization drives.
Two states are currently and publicly providing robust early voting data, Iowa and North Carolina. More states will release statistics as Election Day nears. Iowa and North Carolina report party registration of those requesting and returning mail ballots. North Carolina, which is very transparent, provides a wealth of individual level data that allows a deep dive into the data.
Although statistics on the returned ballots is interesting, at this stage in the game the much larger number of requested ballots is more relevant. Although some of these requested ballots will not be returned or will be rejected by election officials, the overwhelming majority will be counted. The requested ballot statistics thus provide a forecast of where the early vote is going in the coming weeks, and are what I will focus on.
In all of 2010 in Iowa, 349,219 mail ballots were counted. More than a month from the election, already 145,890 voters have requested ballots. An average of more than 8,000 new mail ballot requests were made each day this week (of the four days of new reports). At this pace -- which typically only increases as November nears -- either Iowa will set a record for the share of early voting in a midterm election or Election Day turnout will very high. I would not be surprised if both come to pass given the intense interest in the Braley (D) - Ernst (R) Senate matchup.
(story continues)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2014-early-voting-underwa_b_5891808.htmlWASHINGTON — The Democrats’ plan to hold on to their narrow Senate majority goes by the name “Bannock Street project.” It runs through 10 states, includes a $60 million investment and requires more than 4,000 paid staff members. And the effort will need all of that — and perhaps more — to achieve its goal, which is nothing short of changing the character of the electorate in a midterm cycle.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is preparing its largest and most data-driven ground game yet, relying on an aggressive combination of voter registration, get-out-the-vote and persuasion efforts.
They hope to make the 2014 midterm election more closely resemble a presidential election year, when more traditional Democratic constituencies — single women, minorities and young voters — turn out to vote in higher numbers, said Guy Cecil, the committee’s executive director.
While the goal is ambitious, Mr. Cecil has some experience. “Bannock Street” is drawn from the name of the Denver field headquarters for the campaign of Senator Michael Bennet, Democrat of Colorado, for whom Mr. Cecil was the chief of staff. Mr. Bennet won in 2010 in part by generating higher than forecast turnout.
“We’re making a fundamentally different choice” on campaign strategy, said Mr. Cecil, who laid out the Democratic Senate strategy in an interview at the committee’s headquarters. “Yes, we have to be on TV, and yes, we have to help close the gap between Democrats and Republicans on the air, but we’re not willing to sacrifice the turnout operation or the field operation to do that.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/07/us/politics/democrats-aim-to-make-2014-more-like-2012-and-2008.html
