Some terrible last minute Senate 'predictions'

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You could say that this is a little late in the day, but I don't care what you think, whoever you are. After all, I'm doing this purely for my own amusement. I've been busy recent so have not followed matters as closely as usual. This means I will be mostly wrong and sometimes hilariously so.

Maine: Senator for Life Collins will be re-elected.

New Hampshire: Mid Terms often produce races like this; an incumbent seems solid (if not exactly safe) for almost the entire campaign and then suddenly, horrifyingly, the polls start to close as election day approaches. Worth noting, though, that Brown has only led in a bunch of Uni polls and as we all know, Uni polls are trash. Shaheen will win unless this is a truly terrible night for the Democrats (which is certainly possible).

Massachusetts: Markey won't win the sort of ludicrous blowout often seen in MA, but he'll win and win very easily.

Rhode Island: Senator for Life Reed will win by an absurd Third Worldesque margin.

New Jersey: Booker will win by a solid but not spectacular margin because this is New Jersey and that's how things work there.

Delaware: an easy win for Senator Racistname.

Virginia: Warner is too personally popular to lose, but there's half a chance that this may well a little tighter than expected.

West Virginia: Capito's understandable caution led her to play the long game and to refuse to gamble despite repeated pestering. Caution is about to pay off for her, at least for the next six years. The margin is uncertain (and so interesting) but it won't be close.

Kentucky: in any other year McConnell would be facing an embarrassing personal rejection. Alas, alas...

Tennessee: easy hold for Alexander.

North Carolina: Hagen is ahead, but in that awkward fingernail destroying way that isn't very encouraging. Senators in this position sometimes lose when things are going wrong for their party in a more general sense. I have this marked as a possible cup-of-cold-sick defeat, if (if) this is the kind of election in which much cold sick is consumed. Otherwise she'll be fine.

South Carolina: the simply fabulous incumbent is in no danger (except perhaps from the endeavours of investigative journalists).

Georgia: who said surnames meant nothing in the new South? All that matters at this stage is if Perdue can dodge the runoff. I will let humour rule me and say that he fails by an extremely narrow margin, cuing the carnivalesque absurdity of a runoff election.

Alabama: why even bother holding an election?

Mississippi: the canny old goat rapist is going to win. Worth paying attention to the general pattern of results though.

Louisiana: this is going to go to the runoff, so the first round only matters by way of setting the scene...

Arkansas: Pryor is doomed. Waste of space won't be missed.

PART TWO LATER (if I can be bothered)

[Vosem]

Always enjoy reading your predictions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PART THE SECOND

Michigan: a rare example of a potentially tricky race that has more decisively towards the Democrats this year. Peters ought to win pretty decisively.

Illinois: Durbin will be re-elected by a somewhat lower margin than those that he has become accustomed.

Iowa: all signs point to a close finish, all signs point to a Republican gain. With the polls so tight you can't rule out an upset, but it does not look good...

Minnesota: if someone had claimed six years ago that Al Franken would emerge as a beacon of solidity and safety in hostile electoral weather, the general consensus would be that that person had forgotten to take their lithium. And yet here we are. Fraken may well even win by more than Durbin...

South Dakota: for a brief hilarious moment it seemed as though Larry Pressler might have been in with a shout at pulling off one of the strangest comebacks in recent American political history. Alas, gravity intervened and it looks as though he'll come third. Rounds to win.

Nebraska: it's Nebraska.

Kansas: I haven't got a fycking clue and neither have you.

Oklahoma: Senator for Life Inhofe () wins again.

Texas: expect the usual Republican romp. Was there much in the way of delusional D ramping this year?

New Mexico: the safe Udall.

Colorado: the seemingly done for Udall (and oh dear did this race spin out of control very, very quickly). Or is he? Democrats have underpolled in Colorado quite frequently in the recent past, and maybe that's happening again. But you can't guarantee that...

Wyoming: why do they bother with elections in Wyoming?

Montana: the Democrats have held this seat since the end of the First World War. So it is true then: nothing lasts forever.

Idaho: guess

Oregon: Merkley is perfectly safe, which makes a nice change.

Alaska: polls are over the place, but one useful rule to remember about politics in Alaska is this; if in doubt, the Republican will win.

Hawaiʻi: hilarious lopsided win for Schatz.

[Person Man]

PART THE SECOND

Michigan: a rare example of a potentially tricky race that has more decisively towards the Democrats this year. Peters ought to win pretty decisively.

Illinois: Durbin will be re-elected by a somewhat lower margin than those that he has become accustomed.

Iowa: all signs point to a close finish, all signs point to a Republican gain. With the polls so tight you can't rule out an upset, but it does not look good...

Minnesota: if someone had claimed six years ago that Al Franken would emerge as a beacon of solidity and safety in hostile electoral weather, the general consensus would be that that person had forgotten to take their lithium. And yet here we are. Fraken may well even win by more than Durbin...

South Dakota: for a brief hilarious moment it seemed as though Larry Pressler might have been in with a shout at pulling off one of the strangest comebacks in recent American political history. Alas, gravity intervened and it looks as though he'll come third. Rounds to win.

Nebraska: it's Nebraska.

Kansas: I haven't got a fycking clue and neither have you.

Oklahoma: Senator for Life Inhofe () wins again.

Texas: expect the usual Republican romp. Was there much in the way of delusional D ramping this year?

New Mexico: the safe Udall.

Colorado: the seemingly done for Udall (and oh dear did this race spin out of control very, very quickly). Or is he? Democrats have underpolled in Colorado quite frequently in the recent past, and maybe that's happening again. But you can't guarantee that...

Wyoming: why do they bother with elections in Wyoming?

Montana: the Democrats have held this seat since the end of the First World War. So it is true then: nothing lasts forever.

Idaho: guess

Oregon: Merkley is perfectly safe, which makes a nice change.

Alaska: polls are over the place, but one useful rule to remember about politics in Alaska is this; if in doubt, the Republican will win.

Hawaiʻi: hilarious lopsided win for Schatz.

That question gets asked and the answer is generally "we like elections. Maybe one day people will vote differently."

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

PART THE SECOND

Michigan: a rare example of a potentially tricky race that has more decisively towards the Democrats this year. Peters ought to win pretty decisively.

Illinois: Durbin will be re-elected by a somewhat lower margin than those that he has become accustomed.

Iowa: all signs point to a close finish, all signs point to a Republican gain. With the polls so tight you can't rule out an upset, but it does not look good...

Minnesota: if someone had claimed six years ago that Al Franken would emerge as a beacon of solidity and safety in hostile electoral weather, the general consensus would be that that person had forgotten to take their lithium. And yet here we are. Fraken may well even win by more than Durbin...

South Dakota: for a brief hilarious moment it seemed as though Larry Pressler might have been in with a shout at pulling off one of the strangest comebacks in recent American political history. Alas, gravity intervened and it looks as though he'll come third. Rounds to win.

Nebraska: it's Nebraska.

Kansas: I haven't got a fycking clue and neither have you.

Oklahoma: Senator for Life Inhofe () wins again.

Texas: expect the usual Republican romp. Was there much in the way of delusional D ramping this year?

New Mexico: the safe Udall.

Colorado: the seemingly done for Udall (and oh dear did this race spin out of control very, very quickly). Or is he? Democrats have underpolled in Colorado quite frequently in the recent past, and maybe that's happening again. But you can't guarantee that...

Wyoming: why do they bother with elections in Wyoming?

Montana: the Democrats have held this seat since the end of the First World War. So it is true then: nothing lasts forever.

Idaho: guess

Oregon: Merkley is perfectly safe, which makes a nice change.

Alaska: polls are over the place, but one useful rule to remember about politics in Alaska is this; if in doubt, the Republican will win.

Hawaiʻi: hilarious lopsided win for Schatz.

That question gets asked and the answer is generally "we like elections. Maybe one day people will vote differently."

Dave Freudenthal?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, how'd I do?

Maine: Senator for Life Collins will be re-elected.

Yep

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Basically correct; you have to wonder what would have happened had the NH GOP run a local.

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Yep

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Haha, yes. Despite the carnage elsewhere.

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lolyes

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Yep

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When I wrote this I was expecting an 'embarrassing' five point hold or so. As everyone and their dog now knows, Warner actually did worse than that. A reasonable prediction tho'.

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Huge Capito win, really weird voting patterns.

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McConnell won by like 15pts. Presumably he would not have lost in any other year either.

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Yep

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And this result did indeed have a cold sick effect on many forum Democrats. Happy with this as a piece of analysis.

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Yep (and watch this space).

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Wrong. I should not let my sense of humour impose itself above my head.

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lol

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The canny old goat rapist slashed Democrat margins considerably in the Delta and with that wins Politician of the Year or something.

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The scene is set. Mare-ee Land-roo is not in a good electoral place.

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Pryor was beaten so resoundingly that he only polled slightly better than Blanche Lincoln. Haha.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Michigan: a rare example of a potentially tricky race that has more decisively towards the Democrats this year. Peters ought to win pretty decisively.

One of only very few genuinely good results for the Democrats last night.

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Yep

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Not even tight in the end.

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And it appears that he did indeed do so. LOL.

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Pressler polled 17% and finished third, Rounds won by miles.

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yep

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A convincing won for Roberts.

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yep

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yep

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yep

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Indeed you can't. As I thought, he lost.

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Serious question kids.

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Big Republican win ending quite the Democratic run here. But Curtis polled (just) a higher percentage than Pryor down in Arkansas. LOL.

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yep

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yep

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It certainly looks that way doesn't it.

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yep

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

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Serious question kids.

If Equatorial Guinea does, why wouldn't Wyoming?