Charlie Baker's slim margin of victory..anyone else a bit surprised?

[sg0508]

I think most of us here expected him to win and yes, it's MA...you know when you're the minority party you can't take anything for granted (i.e. Paul Davis in KS this year).  However, across the board outside of maybe MA and CO, Democrats seemed to be overpolled this cycle.  Coakley's loss was actually closer than many of the final polls predicted.  It could have been the "coming home" effect, but for a state that has consistently elected GOP governors since '90, I'm a bit surprised.  Even in the House, there was a shot for the GOP to win one or two of the seats this cycle and neither were even close. 

Anyone else a bit surprised by this? Did anything specific happen in the closing days or weeks that would have predicted this?

[Maxwell]

My guess is, unlike some of the Massachussets prognosticators here said, the MA Democratic Party did the GOTV for Coakley.

[Maistre]

My guess is, unlike some of the Massachussets prognosticators here said, the MA Democratic Party did the GOTV for Coakley.

But MA Democrats are so sexist!!!11!

[tpfkaw]

Not really, because the local media was flogging that ridiculous fisherman "controversy" for all it was worth in the last few days of the campaign. MA "swing" voters need only the smallest of excuses to vote for the Democrat.

My guess is, unlike some of the Massachussets prognosticators here said, the MA Democratic Party did the GOTV for Coakley.

Yes, everywhere but Worcester, where the Dem machine did in fact sit this one out.

[Lief 🗽]

My guess is, unlike some of the Massachussets prognosticators here said, the MA Democratic Party did the GOTV for Coakley.

But MA Democrats are so sexist!!!11!

Too little, too late.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Nah, I expected Baker to win but by less than the polls were suggesting. Democrats in MA have consistently overperformed polls by 2-6% in all major races since 2008. Baker won by 1.9% while RCP's polling average had him winning by 3.7%, so Coakley actually overperformed less than I expected her to, at slightly less than 2%.

[New_Conservative]

No, the Democratic GOTV machine materialized in Boston, which helped keep the race extremely close.