O'Malley vs. Bush

[Mr. Illini]

Maps?

288 - 250

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Bush would win by a blow out. Any moderate would easily beat Malley.

Bush 336 to 202

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Bush would win by a blow out. Any moderate would easily beat Malley.

I love how nowdays Jeb is being called a "moderate".

[Flake]

Bush would win by a blow out. Any moderate would easily beat Malley.

I love how nowdays Jeb is being called a "moderate".

He's not a moderate, but he's popular in Florida, palatable to Northern Republicans and Southern Republicans, and he wouldn't seem like a corporatist, at least not as much as Romney.

	Jeb Bush	Martin O'Malley	Others
Electoral Vote	295	243	0
Popular Vote	51%	48%	1%

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Jeb Bush is way overrated as a candidate. It's been almost a decade since Jeb was governor of Florida (and Florida has been one of most rapidly changing state demographically), he would not excite the Republican base to turn out, but he is not really a "moderate" either....and his name is Bush, a name now synonymous with failure.

And Martin O'Malley is underrated as if he would be a total disaster of a candidate when all he is is vanilla generic D whose floor I think would be Kerry 2004 + Iowa/NM. Not the most exciting candidate in the world, but, even if his reasons for doing so are blatantly transparent, he has been pushing a relatively progressive agenda in Maryland. It wouldn't be catastrophic like nominating, say, Andrew Cuomo, in which case the Democratic base stays home.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Jeb Bush is way overrated as a candidate. It's been almost a decade since Jeb was governor of Florida (and Florida has been one of most rapidly changing state demographically), he would not excite the Republican base to turn out, but he is not really a "moderate" either....and his name is Bush, a name now synonymous with failure.

And Martin O'Malley is underrated as if he would be a total disaster of a candidate when all he is is vanilla generic D whose floor I think would be Kerry 2004 + Iowa/NM. Not the most exciting candidate in the world, but, even if his reasons for doing so are blatantly transparent, he has been pushing a relatively progressive agenda in Maryland. It wouldn't be catastrophic like nominating, say, Andrew Cuomo, in which case the Democratic base stays home.

I don't understand why Cuomo is so disliked.

Because Andrew Cuomo governs as a conservative Republican, but has a (D) after his name, therefore nobody really likes him besides Wall Street, Big Business, and the wealthy who probably voted Republican anyway. He wanted fracking in New York but this was proving excessively unpopular so his 'position' on fracking was that he wouldn't take a position on fracking saying "let the scientists decide". Of course by "scientists", he meant the "political scientists" who told him the obvious

Cuomo won a pathetic re-election 54-40 with 5% going to the Green Party candidate as an incumbent Democratic governor in super-Democratic New York. (I voted for the Green Party candidate, Howie Hawkins).

He only won 62% of the vote amongst his own party in the Democratic primary for his re-election despite being the incumbent governor with a massive warchest of money that he threw into that campaign against an unknown progressive college professor with no money named Zephyr Teachout. (I also voted for Zephyr Teachout in the Democratic primary)

He cut a backroom deal with the Working Families Party leadership to get their ballot line that pissed off the WFP rank-and-file and ultimately cost the WFP their coveted fourth column on the New York ballot after the Dems, Reps, and Cons- to be replaced by the Green Party. (Cuomo also concocted a fake political party called the "Women's Equality Party", a despicable cynical ploy that he hoped would take votes away from the WFP and he hoped would even cost them automatic ballot access.... and in the process exploiting female voters, assuming they are idiots who think voting against him would be voting against "Women's Equality"). Turnout was also very very low.

Andrew Cuomo really doesn't have any base besides Wall Street. Yeah he got marriage equality passed, but it was inevitable that liberal New York would pass marriage equality on its own at some point regardless of who was governor. Meanwhile his "SAFE Act" to increase gun control destroyed his "bipartisan" popularity upstate but since New York already had some of the strictest gun control legislation that piece of inconsequential fluff legislation didn't win him over any progressives.

Andrew Cuomo as nominee would be disastrous, far worse than Martin O'Malley. Martin O'Malley is Generic D, just a white male fairly liberal Democrat who governs a liberal state, and even though it's obvious that he is doing it with presidential ambitions in mind, has been spearheading a progressive agenda in Maryland to try to excite the Dem base behind him. It would be very difficult for Cuomo to win the Democratic primaries even with all the big money behind him. A general election of Cuomo against Jeb Bush would be a nightmare scenario; America loses either way. O'Malley's biggest problem is that he remains a boring white guy but the Dem base would still turn out for him to defeat the threat of yet another Bush.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Jeb Bush is way overrated as a candidate. It's been almost a decade since Jeb was governor of Florida (and Florida has been one of most rapidly changing state demographically), he would not excite the Republican base to turn out, but he is not really a "moderate" either....and his name is Bush, a name now synonymous with failure.

Usually, the "favorite son" factor is being overrated. However, it can still make a difference, especially with close elections. I'm convinced had Kerry picked Bob Graham in 2004 (who was wildly popular despite not seeking reelection) and played this card, he would've carried Florida and become President.

It's true in 2016 Jeb will be out of office for a decade and he missed other opportunities in meanwhile. However, despite Florida changing, he remains reasonably popular there (unlike in other states, he's more associated with his own career than being GWB's brother). Since Florida tends to be close, with Bush on the ticket, I'd give it to Republicans.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Bush would win by a blow out. Any moderate would easily beat Malley.

I love how nowdays Jeb is being called a "moderate".

Jeb is not a moderate. Being to the left of Ted Cruz and opposing a government shutdown and debt default is basic sanity, not moderation.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So basically he' an average business "Democrat" that would change nothing. Well, I guess Clinton isn't going to have any real opposition.

You're talking like Cuomo is the only other Democrat likely to run against Hillary and that's wishful thinking. Hillary is a strong favorite, I'm not going to deny this, but there's a room for a credible anti-Hillary candidate. First, media are hungry for a real competition and will give such a candidate much exposure. Second, there are many Democrats who aren't sold on Hillary.

Bush would win by a blow out. Any moderate would easily beat Malley.

I love how nowdays Jeb is being called a "moderate".

Jeb is not a moderate. Being to the left of Ted Cruz and opposing a government shutdown and debt default is basic sanity, not moderation.

Very true. He's just somewhat less "crazy" than Ted Cruz, and being little more sane than Ted Cruz is not a big accomplishment. By this standard, 1990s Republicans were a moderate bunch, lol.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Jeb Bush is way overrated as a candidate. It's been almost a decade since Jeb was governor of Florida (and Florida has been one of most rapidly changing state demographically), he would not excite the Republican base to turn out, but he is not really a "moderate" either....and his name is Bush, a name now synonymous with failure.

And Martin O'Malley is underrated as if he would be a total disaster of a candidate when all he is is vanilla generic D whose floor I think would be Kerry 2004 + Iowa/NM. Not the most exciting candidate in the world, but, even if his reasons for doing so are blatantly transparent, he has been pushing a relatively progressive agenda in Maryland. It wouldn't be catastrophic like nominating, say, Andrew Cuomo, in which case the Democratic base stays home.

I don't understand why Cuomo is so disliked.

Because Andrew Cuomo governs as a conservative Republican, but has a (D) after his name, therefore nobody really likes him besides Wall Street, Big Business, and the wealthy who probably voted Republican anyway. He wanted fracking in New York but this was proving excessively unpopular so his 'position' on fracking was that he wouldn't take a position on fracking saying "let the scientists decide". Of course by "scientists", he meant the "political scientists" who told him the obvious

Cuomo won a pathetic re-election 54-40 with 5% going to the Green Party candidate as an incumbent Democratic governor in super-Democratic New York. (I voted for the Green Party candidate, Howie Hawkins).

He only won 62% of the vote amongst his own party in the Democratic primary for his re-election despite being the incumbent governor with a massive warchest of money that he threw into that campaign against an unknown progressive college professor with no money named Zephyr Teachout. (I also voted for Zephyr Teachout in the Democratic primary)

He cut a backroom deal with the Working Families Party leadership to get their ballot line that pissed off the WFP rank-and-file and ultimately cost the WFP their coveted fourth column on the New York ballot after the Dems, Reps, and Cons- to be replaced by the Green Party. (Cuomo also concocted a fake political party called the "Women's Equality Party", a despicable cynical ploy that he hoped would take votes away from the WFP and he hoped would even cost them automatic ballot access.... and in the process exploiting female voters, assuming they are idiots who think voting against him would be voting against "Women's Equality"). Turnout was also very very low.

Andrew Cuomo really doesn't have any base besides Wall Street. Yeah he got marriage equality passed, but it was inevitable that liberal New York would pass marriage equality on its own at some point regardless of who was governor. Meanwhile his "SAFE Act" to increase gun control destroyed his "bipartisan" popularity upstate but since New York already had some of the strictest gun control legislation that piece of inconsequential fluff legislation didn't win him over any progressives.

Andrew Cuomo as nominee would be disastrous, far worse than Martin O'Malley. Martin O'Malley is Generic D, just a white male fairly liberal Democrat who governs a liberal state, and even though it's obvious that he is doing it with presidential ambitions in mind, has been spearheading a progressive agenda in Maryland to try to excite the Dem base behind him. It would be very difficult for Cuomo to win the Democratic primaries even with all the big money behind him. A general election of Cuomo against Jeb Bush would be a nightmare scenario; America loses either way. O'Malley's biggest problem is that he remains a boring white guy but the Dem base would still turn out for him to defeat the threat of yet another Bush.

So basically he' an average business "Democrat" that would change nothing. Well, I guess Clinton isn't going to have any real opposition.

Not really, he's a Democrat who has actively worked against progressive Democratic allies like the WFP and actively worked to maintain Republican control of the State Senate. Andrew Cuomo is not a "business Democrat", he's a blatantly right-wing Democrat who governs New York as if we were some conservative state rather than the most liberal Democratic big state in the nation. (IIRC Obama's vote percentage and margin of victory in New York State in 2012 were the highest in the nation behind sparsely populated Vermont and Hawaii, the latter of which is partially home state effect.)

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Jeb Bush is way overrated as a candidate. It's been almost a decade since Jeb was governor of Florida (and Florida has been one of most rapidly changing state demographically), he would not excite the Republican base to turn out, but he is not really a "moderate" either....and his name is Bush, a name now synonymous with failure.

Usually, the "favorite son" factor is being overrated. However, it can still make a difference, especially with close elections. I'm convinced had Kerry picked Bob Graham in 2004 (who was wildly popular despite not seeking reelection) and played this card, he would've carried Florida and become President.

It's true in 2016 Jeb will be out of office for a decade and he missed other opportunities in meanwhile. However, despite Florida changing, he remains reasonably popular there (unlike in other states, he's more associated with his own career than being GWB's brother). Since Florida tends to be close, with Bush on the ticket, I'd give it to Republicans.

Florida is unique in that its population has boomed and demographics changed dramatically in the nearly a decade since Jeb Bush was governor. A lot of solid D Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida, plus younger Cubans and other Hispanics have come of age, they don't remember who Jeb Bush is and couldn't care less that he was governor a decade ago. Remember the Hispanic vote skews heavily young compared to white voters.

Plus Florida is such a big and diverse state, there's no real typical Floridian. An old white conservative Republican from the Florida panhandle is unlikely to appeal to peninsular Florida, especially heavily populated South Florida. Meanwhile a liberal Hispanic Democrat from Miami is unlikely to appeal to white conservatives in North Florida and the panhandle.

There isn't really a typical Floridian culture that would give a candidate from Florida a statewide boost, compared to say Texas where George W. Bush clearly personified Texas values that made him popular everywhere outside of Austin (and he even narrowly carried Travis County in 2000), despite the fact that he wasn't a native Texan.

Or the way Jimmy Carter dominated Georgia (along with much of the South in 76) even though it had been R-trending, since there was a clear Southern evangelical culture that Southern voters identified with in Carter.

I don't see Jeb Bush getting much of a 'home state' boost in Florida. The people who remember him and identify with him were probably voting Republican any way.

[IceSpear]

O'Malley is likely too bland and uninspiring to win, but he'd probably keep it relatively close against the extremely overrated Jeb. He gets the Kerry states + NM/NV.

Bush - 281
O'Malley - 257