Mapping the states based on the 2020 census using the July 1, 2017 pop estimates

[jimrtex]

These are the three districts in Oakland, Macomb, and Livingston.



I wanted to create a district in each of Oakland and Macomb, with the final district comprised of the remnants of those two counties plus Livingston. It makes sense to place the whold district in the more densely populated southern part of the counties.

Since the district was going to stretch from Livingston into Macomb, I used the two northern tiers of Oakland townships, which also kept me clear of Pontiac. The two western tiers of Oakland adjacent to Livingston were added. Finally, Waterford Township was added for population balance, and it is at the intersection of the two tiers.

The district was continued across the northern two tiers of Macomb townships, and was then adjusted for population balance. The two whole districts are quite compact, which justifies the somewhat elongated shape of the other district, which remains entirely in the Detroit MSA and has a COI of less densely developed suburbs blending in to exurbs.

MI-8 Northern Detroit Metro (Waterford Charter Township, Novi, Chesterfield Charter Township, Commerce Charter Township, Hamburg Township) +1.70% deviation, +8.1% change 2010-2020, R+11.91; A 92, H 2, B 2, As 2, O1.

MI-9 Southeast Oakland (Troy, Farmington Hills, Rochester Hills, Southfield, West Bloomfield Charter Township) +1.41 deviation, +3.5% change, D+10.25, A 70, B 19, As 7, H 3, O 2.

MI-10 Macomb (Warren, Sterling Heights, Clinton Charter Township, Macomb Township, Shelby Charter Township) +1.97% deviation, +5.0% change, R+2.35, A 86, B 8, As 3, H2, O1.

[jimrtex]

These are the three districts in Wayne, Washtenaw, and Monroe counties.



Detroit, pluse the Grosse Pointe's, Hamtramck, and Highland Park are just short of a district. The quota is reached by adding River Rouge.

Areas along the southern end were added to the Washtenaw-Monroe district. I tried to keep the areas with significant black population (Inkster, Romulus, Ecorse, Redford,, and Van Buren together.

MI-11 Ann Arbor-Monroe-South Wayne (Ann Arbor, Canton Charter Township, Ypsilanti, Pittsfield Charter Township, Bedford Township) -3.10% deviation, +4.1% change 2010-2020, D+7.82; A 81, B 8, As 6, H 3, O 2.

MI-12 Wayne County (Dearborn, Livonia, Westland, Taylor, Dearborn Heights) -1.86% deviation, -4.0% change, D+9.15; A 80, B 12, H 4, As 2, O 2.

MI-13 Detroit (Detroit) -1.89% deviation, -7.5% change, D+40.53; B 75, A 16, H 5, O 2, As 2.

[jimrtex]

This map equalizes district population more, at the expense of three additional county splits:

Newaygo 12,169 moved from MI-2 to MI-3.
Lenawee 15,198 moved from MI-6 to MI-11
Oakland 39,082 moved from MI-9 to MI-13
Total 66,449 (8.6% of a quota).



Western Michigan



Because Kent is realtive close to the quota (0.876) there aren't too many option to forming a district. The area shifted into MI-2 is the northern portion of the county, most of which is in the Huron-Manistee National Forest, shared with other counties to the north and west. The township in the southern half of the county besides giving closer population balance, surrounds the county seat of White Cloud. The portion in MI-3 has about 3/4 of the population despite having slightly less than half the area. It also includes the largest towns in the county, Fremont and Newaygo.

Livingston, Oakland, Macomb counties



The three northern Detroit counties districts were slightly overpopulated, and required a shift to the south. This could have been made from any of the counties. Most of the township-sized cities were too big, and would have had to been split, but the three small communities of Ferndale, Hazel Park, and Royal Oak Charter Township have the necessary 40,000 population. A negative is that moving this area into the Detroit district (MI-13) requires a split of Detroit.

Moving 39,000 people out of MI-9, requires a rebalancing MI-8, MI-9, and MI-10. The selections of which Oakland and Macomb subdivisions are placed in MI-8 is largely controlled by reasons of population balance.

Wayne, Washtenaw, Monroe, and Lenawee (part)



A small bit of Lenawee needed to be shifted into MI-8 (Washtenaw, Monroe, part of Wayne). Tecumseh and surrounding areas have the right population, are at the junction with Monroe and Washtenaw, and have a direct route into Ann Arbor via US 12.

Adding people from Oakland to MI-13, and from Lenawee to MI-11 requires rebalancing of MI-11, MI-12, and MI-13. The split of Wayne County is more of an East-West split, and overall gives more of an Ann Arbor flavor to MI-11.

As shown, MI-13 is overpopulated, and MI-12 is underpopulated. To correct this, will require a split of Detroit. I identified an area in the finger of southwest Detroit between Dearborn and River Rouge. The precincts have a number "25" which appears to be something akin to a ward number (precincts in other cities have a prefix associated with the city or township).) In any case, these precincts have about the correct population, and eliminate the Detroit finger.

[jimrtex]

MI-1 Northern Michigan (Marquette, Traverse City, Sault Ste. Marie) +0.47% deviation, -1.5% change 2010-2020, R+10.09; A 94, AI 2, B 1, O 1, H 1, As 1.

35 counties in northern Michigan (of 83 total). The largest are Grand Traverse with 12.2% and Marquette with 8.6%. No other county has more than 5% of the district.

MI-2 Michigan Shoreline (Muskegon, Holland) -0.20% deviation, +5.5% change, R+10.27; A 87, H 6, B 5, As 1, O 1, AI 1.

The population is concentrated in the south around Grand Rapids, Holland, and Muskegon. Ottawa 38%, Muskegon 23%, Allegan 15%, Van Buren 10%, 5 northern counties 14%.

MI-3 Western Michigan-Grand Rapids (Grand Rapids, Wyoming, Kentwood) -0.21% deviation, +9.2% change, R+5.63; A 82, B 8, H 7, As 2, O 1.

87% of the district is in Kent.

MI-4 Central Michigan (Saginaw, Midland, Bay City) -0.60% deviation, -2.7% change, R+5.65; A 89, B 6, H 3, O 1, As 1, AI 1.

Almost half the population is in the three dominant counties of Saginaw, 25%, Bay, 13%, and Midland, 10%.

MI-5 Southwestern Michigan-Kalamazoo (Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Portage) +0.18% deviation, +1.2% change, R+4.04; A 85, B 9, H 3, As 1, O 1.

72% of the population is in the 3 dominant counties of Kalamazoo 35%, Berrien 20%, and Calhoun 17%.

MI-6 South Central-Lansing (Lansing, East Lansing, Jackson) +0.05% deviation, +1.9% change, D+0.01; A 84, B 7, H 4, As 3, O 1.

63% of the district is in the Lansing metro counties of Ingham 38%, Eaton 14%, and Clinton 10%.

MI-7 Michigan Thumb-Flint (Flint, Port Huron) R+2.30% deviation, -4.9% change, R+2.30; A 85, B11, H 2, O 1, As 1.

52% of the district is in Genesee, and 20% in St. Clair. Because of their location, it is inevitable that the more rural Thumb counties will be stuck with some more populous counties.

MI-8 Northern Detroit Metro (Shelby Charter Township, Rochester Hills, Novi, Orion Charter Township, Hamburg Township) -0.01% deviation, +9.0% change 2010-2020, R+7.81; A 91, As 3, B 2, H 2, O1.

60% is in Oakland, 25% in Livingston, and 15% in Macomb.

MI-9 Southeast Oakland (Troy, Farmington Hills, Southfield, Waterford Charter Township, West Bloomfield Charter Township) -0.12% deviation, +2.6% change, D+8.99, A 71, B 18, As 6, H 4, O 1.

The district is wholly in Oakland, and comprises 61% of the county.

MI-10 Macomb (Warren, Sterling Heights, Clinton Charter Township, Macomb Township, St. Clair Shores) -0.15% deviation, +4.2% change, R+1.73, A 86, B 8, As 3, H 2, O1.

The district is wholly in Macomb, and comprises 87% of the county.