Florida

[PresidentTRUMP]

Republicans HAVE to win Florida without it they have no chance what-so-ever to win the election.

Hillary polls well in FLorida.

Thats why I see two candidates that are realistic, could win FLorida which would give them a CHANCE to win the election.....bush and rubio

Walker, christie, and paul i don't see any of them beating hillary in Florida, and if thats the case they have NO CHANCE to win the general.

[Xing]

It's too soon to say that candidates other than Bush and Rubio couldn't win Florida. Also, what good would winning Florida do Republicans if they still lost Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia?

Also, FYI, you do realize that Hillary has been ahead of Rubio in every Florida poll taken, right?

[Devils30]

Hillary can beat Jeb in Florida as well, the state's changing demographics mean a close race but she will have to campaign hard for it. I would focus on IA, NH, FL during the primary phase anyway because they are key states in the fall but skip SC.

[The Free North]

So instead of Hillary hacks, we have Rubio hacks now?

[IceSpear]

Kind of off topic, but Florida could very well tell us whether we're going to have an early election night. States like VA count pretty slow, plus it's possible for a Republican to win without it. FL counts very fast, and if Hillary wins the state by a significant margin (3+ points) it would be fairly apparent in the early results. And that would be the ball game.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kind of off topic, but Florida could very well tell us whether we're going to have an early election night. States like VA count pretty slow, plus it's possible for a Republican to win without it. FL counts very fast, and if Hillary wins the state by a significant margin (3+ points) it would be fairly apparent in the early results. And that would be the ball game.

Florida counted very fast in 2014, a low turnout midterm. I highly doubt we'll see 67% of the vote in at 8:00 again. It'll probably go back to something around the 2012 trajectory. (42% in at 8:00, 72% in at 9:00, 81% in at 10:00, 90% in at 11:00) Also, if Florida keeps the counting bias it had in 2014 (Crist was leading 55-40 at 22% in and still lost), it won't be called quickly at all.

[Devils30]

Would like to see PPP do a Florida poll soon.

[pbrower2a]

Kind of off topic, but Florida could very well tell us whether we're going to have an early election night. States like VA count pretty slow, plus it's possible for a Republican to win without it. FL counts very fast, and if Hillary wins the state by a significant margin (3+ points) it would be fairly apparent in the early results. And that would be the ball game.

In 2000 the news media called Florida (and effectively the election) early. Of course we all know how that turned out.

Florida has not been a runaway election for any Democratic nominee for President in a true binary election since 1944 (maximum spread since then about 5% for Carter in 1976), but it has been a runaway win for Republican (60% for "41" in 1988, 65% for Reagan in 1984, and 72% for Nixon in 1972. It barely went for LBJ in 1964. Florida underplays the strengths of Democratic nominees in their wins but overplays the weaknesses of Democratic nominees and strengths of Republican nominees in Republican wins of the state in Presidential elections.

If Hillary is winning Florida by a 5% margin in 2016, then she is likely getting 55% of the popular vote and 400 electoral votes.

[Xing]

Florida also counted quite quickly in 2012, we just didn't know that Obama won until two days after the election because it was so close. Since Florida tends to be slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole, if Florida is almost even, the Republican candidate is probably in trouble, especially if Florida is their home state.

[pbrower2a]

Would like to see PPP do a Florida poll soon.

We are going to see lots of Florida polls because of (1) 29 electoral votes up for grabs in a microcosm of America, (2) a former Governor running for President, (3) an unpopular incumbent Senator whose re-election could be the difference between the Democrats and Republicans holding the Senate, and (4) a Governor with a proclivity to do fishy things -- and I don't mean cheering the Marlins or Rays.  

[Devils30]

Florida's 2016 voters will be about 63-64% white, down from 67% in 2012 and 69% last midterm. If the Dems keep most of their gains with Hispanics this is a major problem for the GOP.

[chrisras]

Jeb Bush will win Florida easily.  He was a popular two term governor here.  He's also a rockstar with the Hispanic community.  It won't be close

[Senator Cris]

Would like to see PPP do a Florida poll soon.

We are going to see lots of Florida polls because of (10 29 electoral votes up for grabs in a microcosm of America, (2) a former Governor running for President, (3) an unpopular incumbent Senator whose re-election could be the difference between the Democrats and Republicans holding the Senate, and (4) a Governor with a proclivity to do fishy things -- and I don't mean cheering the Marlins or Rays. 

40/41 approval (PPP). Not so unpopular...

[Flake]

Nobody in Florida really likes Rubio (the pubs would much rather vote for Bush than Rubio)

[bobloblaw]

Republicans HAVE to win Florida without it they have no chance what-so-ever to win the election.

Hillary polls well in FLorida.

Thats why I see two candidates that are realistic, could win FLorida which would give them a CHANCE to win the election.....bush and rubio

Walker, christie, and paul i don't see any of them beating hillary in Florida, and if thats the case they have NO CHANCE to win the general.

Florida will move with the national popular vote. FL has a PVI of R+1 roughly. If the GOP candidate is ahead nationally, they will carry FL.

There are very few times when a state departs greatly from its PVI.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Jeb Bush will win Florida easily.  He was a popular two term governor here.  He's also a rockstar with the Hispanic community.  It won't be close

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_bush_vs_clinton-3554.html