Predict the Next Democratic Wave

[MATTROSE94]

If a Republican wins in 2016, then 2018 (though Democrats won't make big gains in the senate). If a Democrat wins, then 2020 or 2022.

The Republicans might still have a net gain of Senate seats in 2018 even if they control the Presidency. The only Republican Senator who is vulnerable that year is Dean Heller, while on the Democratic side Claire McCaskill, Jon Tester, Joe Donnelly  and Heidi Heitkamp are definately underdogs in their respective races and the right Republican candidates could take them down easily. In addition, Joe Manchin's senate seat would easily go Republican in 2018 if he retires that year. Assuming that the Republicans lose Nevada, but pick up Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota and Montana, they would end up with a net gain of 4 seats in the 2018 Senate elections.

Honestly, the only reason Byrd and Rockefeller lasted as long past 2000 as they did was seniority. Manchin isn't going to win re-election (or anything else). Also, I happen to think we're favored with Tester running (and Heller is probably safe).

Joe Manchin was re-elected with 60% of the vote in 2012 and won most counties in West Virginia, so I feel that he would be favored for re-election in 2018. If Manchin retires that year (not out of the realm of possibility), his seat would then be a safe Republican pick-up however.

On the other hand, Jon Tester was barely re-elected in 2012 and it could be argued that higher Democratic turnout and the fact that the Libertarian candidate Dan Cox took votes away from Denny Rehberg is what allowed him to win. In a more neutral year with lower Democratic turnout, I don't think Tester would be as lucky as he was in 2012. Dean Heller is in a bit of a similar situation, as he was barely elected against a corrupt and flawed opponent (Shelley Berkley). Due to those reasons, I feel that a stronger Democratic candidate such as Rory Reid or Dina Titus could possibly defeat Heller in 2018.

I do think that the Democrats could see significant gains in the 2018 Gubernatorial races and in the House of Representatives as well if a Republican is elected in 2016 however.