Odds of this happening
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Author Topic: Odds of this happening  (Read 366 times)
King
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« on: May 14, 2015, 12:48:09 PM »

IA - Walker
NH - Bush
SC - Rubio
NV - Paul
OK - Huckabee
GA - Carson
TX - Cruz

First 7 primaries, 7 different winners
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2015, 12:55:08 PM »

It's a fun thought, but Huck would have to be an extremely close 2nd in IA and SC. Carson would flop before that point. Cruz could stay in, but he'd have little chance even in his homestate. I could see a Santorum-like performance (or as he was polling in PA before dropping out) given that he wouldn't have any momentum.

I actually think Graham winning SC and giving GA to Rubio might make a little more sense (which is still virtually none) because Carson has little chance especially with maybe a 3rd place finish in Iowa.

Also fun would be Christie winning NH and Bush being the southern moderate.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2015, 12:57:27 PM »

I think the first four playing out like that is not totally out of the realm of possibility, but the three results after that are close to impossible, IMO. Anyone who does not win one of the first four states isn't going to win anything else.
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King
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« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2015, 01:02:30 PM »

I think the first four playing out like that is not totally out of the realm of possibility, but the three results after that are close to impossible, IMO. Anyone who does not win one of the first four states isn't going to win anything else.

Clinton in 1992 did manage to lose the first four states (IA to Harkin, NH to Tsongas, SD to Kerrey, ME to Brown) and win. It's not impossible in a divided field.
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