Gov. LePage "very strongly" considering US Senate run in 2018
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  Gov. LePage "very strongly" considering US Senate run in 2018
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Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries
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« Reply #25 on: August 30, 2015, 10:07:20 PM »

LePage can only win in elections with three candidates, and I doubt this will be a three-way election.

The Democratic party will just skip out on that Maine Senate seat? I don't think so.

If there's a Democratic-leaning and Democratic-caucusing independent already there, and a threat of Paul LePage taking the seat, yes.

If they're smart enough, yes. However, history has shown that whenever there is a powerful independent in a Maine race, its almost always a 3-4 person race. Just look at all the gubernatorial races from 1990 onward. Unlike Sanders, I don't think King is exclusively left wing, so the Democrats could still run someone.

King had been rumored to be considering caucusing with the GOP, but he stayed with the Democrats, and will likely endorse the Democratic nominee for President in 2016.  Independent or not, he's pretty much locked into the Democratic caucus at this point.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #26 on: August 30, 2015, 11:09:12 PM »

Has anyone ever explained runoffs to Maine?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #27 on: August 30, 2015, 11:21:13 PM »

Isn't he more likely to be considering a run from the law?


I find this weird situation with politicans on this site. We get these threads about how they are litterally one step away from the slammer or impeachment or whatever. Several months go by and then he is talked about as a candidate for something, with barely any mention of the scandal occuring in the thread. Tongue
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« Reply #28 on: August 31, 2015, 10:55:50 AM »

Btw, there is a referendum in Maine for 2016 (that is almost certain to reach the ballot) about introducing IRV for all elections.
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windjammer
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« Reply #29 on: August 31, 2015, 10:58:42 AM »

Btw, there is a referendum in Maine for 2016 (that is almost certain to reach the ballot) about introducing IRV for all elections.
Almost certain to reach the ballot? Link?
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Figueira
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« Reply #30 on: August 31, 2015, 11:14:17 AM »

Has anyone ever explained runoffs to Maine?

Runoffs are a bad idea. IRV is slightly better but still flawed. However, they might work well with Maine politics.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #31 on: August 31, 2015, 10:56:19 PM »

Has anyone ever explained runoffs to Maine?

Runoffs are a bad idea. IRV is slightly better but still flawed. However, they might work well with Maine politics.

All voting systems are flawed. But in our American system runoffs would be much better than the first-past-the-post system, especially in Maine where there is a long history of strong third party candidates with the potential to act as spoilers. I agree that IRV would be even better, but American politicians seem to think that IRV would make voters' heads explode, so I was being realistic.
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« Reply #32 on: August 31, 2015, 11:44:14 PM »

My concern is that SCOTUS in its infinite wisdom might decide that IRV violates OMOV somehow.
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Senator Spiral
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« Reply #33 on: September 01, 2015, 12:01:50 AM »

As I've said before: Don't underestimate him, especially if there's a GOP wave that year.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #34 on: September 01, 2015, 02:43:13 AM »

As I've said before: Don't underestimate him, especially if there's a GOP wave that year.

Agree partially. Stronger then typical Maine Republican candidate - sure. Has crossover appeal to some categories of voters (especially - working class socially conservative populists) - sure. On par with King? Not really.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #35 on: September 03, 2015, 08:07:11 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2015, 08:44:44 PM by Kevinstat »

Btw, there is a referendum in Maine for 2016 (that is almost certain to reach the ballot) about introducing IRV for all elections.
Almost certain to reach the ballot? Link?
http://www.rcvmaine.com/

There were people collecting petitions when I voted in the school budget validation election/special election for city council and school committee in June, and supporters went to my county's Democratic committee meeting and collected some signatures there, so they seem to be pretty well-organized and so I expect it will make it to the ballot.  But, ...

My concern is that SCOTUS in its infinite wisdom might decide that IRV violates OMOV somehow.
A bigger issue in Maine is what the Maine Constitution says about elections for various offices.  Quoting parts of the Maine Constitution below, with boldface from the page I'm coping from but italics mine for emphasis.

"
CONSTITUTION OF THE STATE OF MAINE
2013 ARRANGEMENT


...

Article IV.
Part First.
House of Representatives.

...
Section 5.  Election of Representatives; lists of votes delivered forthwith; lists of votes examined by Governor; summons of persons who appear to be elected; lists shall be laid before the House.  The meetings within this State for the choice of Representatives shall be warned in due course of law by qualified officials of the several towns and cities 7 days at least before the election, and the election officials of the various towns and cities shall preside impartially at such meetings, receive the votes of all the qualified electors, sort, count and declare them in open meeting; and a list of the persons voted for shall be formed, with the number of votes for each person against that person's name.  Cities and towns belonging to any Representative District shall hold their meetings at the same time in the respective cities and towns; and such meetings shall be notified, held and regulated, the votes received, sorted, counted and declared in the same manner.  Fair copies of the lists of votes shall be attested by the municipal officers and the clerks of the cities and towns and the city and town clerks respectively shall cause the same to be delivered into the office of the Secretary of State forthwith.  The Governor shall examine the returned copies of such lists and 7 days before the first Wednesday of December biennially, shall issue a summons to such persons as shall appear to have been elected by a plurality of all votes returned, to attend and take their seats.  All such lists shall be laid before the House of Representatives on the first Wednesday of December biennially, and they shall finally determine who are elected.

...

Article IV.
Part Second.
Senate.

...
Section 3.  Election of Senators; lists of votes delivered forthwith.  The meetings within this State for the election of Senators shall be notified, held and regulated and the votes received, sorted, counted, declared and recorded, in the same manner as those for Representatives.  Fair copies of the lists of votes shall be attested by the clerks of the cities and towns or other duly authorized officials and sealed up in open meetings and such officials shall cause said lists to be delivered into the office of the Secretary of State forthwith.

Section 4.  Lists of votes examined by Governor; summons to persons who appear to be elected.  The Governor shall, as soon as may be, examine the copies of such lists, and at least 7 days before the said first Wednesday of December, issue a summons to such persons, as shall appear to be elected by a plurality of the votes in each senatorial district, to attend that day and take their seats.

Section 5.  Determination of Senators elected; procedure for filling vacancies.  The Senate shall, on said first Wednesday of December, biennially determine who is elected by a plurality of votes to be Senator in each district.  All vacancies in the Senate arising from death, resignation, removal from the State or like causes, and also vacancies, if any, which may occur because of the failure of any district to elect by a plurality of votes the Senator to which said district shall be entitled shall be filled by an immediate election in the unrepresented district.  The Governor shall issue a proclamation therefor and therein fix the time of such election.

...

Article V.
Part First.
Executive Power.


Section 1.  Governor.  The supreme executive power of this State shall be vested in a Governor.
...
Section 3.  Election; votes to be returned to Secretary of State; Secretary of State to lay lists before the Senate and House of Representatives; provision in case of tie.  The meetings for election of Governor shall be notified, held and regulated and votes shall be received, sorted, counted and declared and recorded, in the same manner as those for Senators and Representatives.  Copies of lists of votes shall be sealed and returned to the secretary's office in the same manner and at the same time as those for Senators.  The Secretary of State for the time being shall, on the first Wednesday after the first Tuesday of January then next, lay the lists returned to the secretary's office before the Senate and House of Representatives to be by them examined, together with the ballots cast if they so elect, and they shall determine the number of votes duly cast for the office of Governor, and in case of a choice by plurality of all of the votes returned they shall declare and publish the same.  If there shall be a tie between the 2 persons having the largest number of votes for Governor, the House of Representatives and the Senate meeting in joint session, and each member of said bodies having a single vote, shall elect one of said 2 persons having so received an equal number of votes and the person so elected by the Senate and House of Representatives shall be declared the Governor.

...

Article VI.
Judicial Power.

...
Section 6.  Judges and registers of probate, election and tenure; vacancies.  Judges and registers of probate shall be elected by the people of their respective counties, by a plurality of the votes given in, at the biennial election on the Tuesday following the first Monday of November, and shall hold their offices for 4 years, commencing on the first day of January next after their election.  Vacancies occurring in said offices by death, resignation or otherwise, shall be filled by election in manner aforesaid at the November election, next after their occurrence; and in the meantime, the Governor may fill said vacancies by appointment, and the persons so appointed shall hold their offices until the first day of January next after the election aforesaid.

...

Article IX.
General Provisions.

...
Section 10.  Tenure of sheriffs.  Sheriffs shall be elected by the people of their respective counties, by a plurality of the votes given in on the Tuesday following the first Monday of November, and shall hold their offices for 4 years from the first day of January next after their election, unless sooner removed as hereinafter provided. ...

...

Article X.
Additional Provisions.

...
Section 4.  Amendments to Constitution.  The Legislature, whenever 2/3 of both Houses shall deem it necessary, may propose amendments to this Constitution; and when any amendments shall be so agreed upon, a resolution shall be passed and sent to the selectmen of the several towns, and the assessors of the several plantations, empowering and directing them to notify the inhabitants of their respective towns and plantations, in the manner prescribed by law, at the next biennial meetings in the month of November, or to meet in the manner prescribed by law for calling and holding biennial meetings of said inhabitants for the election of Senators and Representatives, on the Tuesday following the first Monday of November following the passage of said resolve, to give in their votes on the question, whether such amendment shall be made; and if it shall appear that a majority of the inhabitants voting on the question are in favor of such amendment, it shall become a part of this Constitution.
...
"

(I think Maine) courts have ruled that even if a proposed citizen initiative were clearly unconstitutional, it would have to be voted on unless the Legislature were to enact it.  So nothing above would prevent this going to a vote in 2016 if the necessary signatures are gathered.  But I have a hard time seeing how people get past the general constitutional language.  At the county committee meeting where supporters of this measure were speaking, in response to a my question one of the people (a State Representative from Portland) said that a majority is a plurality, and it is true that a candidate with a majority of votes obviously has a plurality.  And it is also true that the constitution doesn't explicitly say that the person elected to these various offices is the person with a plurality of first place votes, but at the time this language was written (probably the 1880s for Governor but perhaps sooner for other offices, as Maine at one point had a majority requirement for Governor, otherwise the House would pick two candidates and the Senate would pick one of those, but that provision was gotten rid of I'm pretty sure in the 1880's so the plurality language would probably date from that point)... well, the method now known as Instant Runoff Voting or, more recently (and used in this Maine campaign) "Ranked Choice Voting" had been "invented" but the Legislators who were (I think reinstating) the plurality rule for Governor probably saw the first place vote as the only kind of vote there was and weren't thinking about votes transferring from one candidate to another to maximize the ballot's utility to the voter.

I could say more about my thoughts on IRV, but I've written enough for now and IRV wasn't the main topic of this thread anyway.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #36 on: September 07, 2015, 11:20:08 AM »

He's nothing more than the Republicans' equivalent of Alan Grayson, and just like Grayson, he'll get crushed in a Senate race.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #37 on: September 07, 2015, 01:11:20 PM »

He's nothing more than the Republicans' equivalent of Alan Grayson, and just like Grayson, he'll get crushed in a Senate race.

Just like Atlas was collectively convinced that LePage would lose last year. The real problem this time is that he is facing Angus King.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #38 on: September 07, 2015, 01:24:23 PM »

He's nothing more than the Republicans' equivalent of Alan Grayson, and just like Grayson, he'll get crushed in a Senate race.

Just like Atlas was collectively convinced that LePage would lose last year. The real problem this time is that he is facing Angus King.

He only won because of the goofy three way race last year.
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« Reply #39 on: September 07, 2015, 03:24:18 PM »

Obligatory reminder that Federal Politics Are Differnt From State Politics.


Tanks Kevinstat.
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mds32
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« Reply #40 on: September 07, 2015, 06:40:05 PM »

He's nothing more than the Republicans' equivalent of Alan Grayson, and just like Grayson, he'll get crushed in a Senate race.

Just like Atlas was collectively convinced that LePage would lose last year. The real problem this time is that he is facing Angus King.

He only won because of the goofy three way race last year.

I truly think he would have still won that if it was only Michaud in the end. Michaud's campaign truly was a joke if he couldn't defeat THE most vulnerable Governor in the 2014 cycle. Literally remember when we all used to say Corbett was safer than LePage at one point? LePage was going to win it with/without Cutler in the race.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #41 on: September 07, 2015, 06:44:23 PM »

He's nothing more than the Republicans' equivalent of Alan Grayson, and just like Grayson, he'll get crushed in a Senate race.

Just like Atlas was collectively convinced that LePage would lose last year. The real problem this time is that he is facing Angus King.

He only won because of the goofy three way race last year.

I truly think he would have still won that if it was only Michaud in the end. Michaud's campaign truly was a joke if he couldn't defeat THE most vulnerable Governor in the 2014 cycle. Literally remember when we all used to say Corbett was safer than LePage at one point? LePage was going to win it with/without Cutler in the race.

Pretty sure no one said that.  Anyway, LePage will be lucky if he doesn't get himself impeached/indicted.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #42 on: September 07, 2015, 06:49:35 PM »

He's nothing more than the Republicans' equivalent of Alan Grayson, and just like Grayson, he'll get crushed in a Senate race.

Just like Atlas was collectively convinced that LePage would lose last year. The real problem this time is that he is facing Angus King.

He only won because of the goofy three way race last year.

That is definitively not true. He only needed about a quarter of Cutler's voters to get a majority of the vote. Considering the fact that I don't think all of Cutler's voters would've even showed up, much less voted for Michaud, it's pretty easy to say that LePage won because Michaud ran an ineffectual campaign and because LePage ran strong with blue collar voters.

Michaud lost his home district by something close to 16 points. That should tell you something about the kind of campaign he ran.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #43 on: September 07, 2015, 07:11:45 PM »

Wouldn't Pouliot, Summers, Schneider, or Poliquin be a lot better?

Pouliot gets to use the age argument, Summers can finance his campaign easily, Schneider as an attorney can easily distance himself from LePage by being "tough on law", and Poliquin has great name recognition, as he's undergone statewide elections two or three times.

In short: Please no.
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Vosem
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« Reply #44 on: September 07, 2015, 08:20:29 PM »

LePage is a stronger candidate than many here realize, but my real problem is that he would then become a Senate freshman at 70. King was elected in 2012 at 68 (and Strickland will be 75 if he wins in 2016), so Maine likes electing their old ex-Governors to the Senate, but that really doesn't leave any time for LePage to build up the seniority and experience to be an effective Senator and the record of old ex-Governors in Senate elections recently has not been spectacular.

Richard Bennett or Charlie Summers (or, indeed, Poliquin) would be preferable. 
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