In the GE, where would Trump overperform/underperform compared to 2012?

[Orser67]

In the general election, where would Trump do better/worse compared to Romney in 2012? I'm talking about both demographic groups and states.

[Sir Mohamed]

He would be crashed in a landslide.

[RR1997]

I think he would over perform in Appalacia territory and the Rust Belt

He would underperform in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and California

I also see Trump underperforming in the whole entire west in general

[RR1997]

I was about to start this exact thread until I saw this.

Probably would overperform in the Midwest and New York.

Underperform in Utah and parts of the South. Possibly in the Northwest as well.

Why da fuq would he overperform in New York? It's (obviously) a very cosmopolitan state with a large immigrant population. "The Favorite Son Effect" isn't a thing anymore. Not only did Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan lose their home states badly, they underperformed in their home states compared to the GOP performance in 2008. At least Romney and Ryan were elected by the people of their home states, unlike Trump. Trump will obviously underperform in New York, and it's silly to think otherwise.

I agree that Trump will underperform in Utah and the Northwest. I actually think that Trump will underperform in the whole entire western portion of this country

Also why would Trump underperform in the south? Please elaborate.

[Xing]

Trump would probably overperform in Appalachia, simply because that region is trending Republican very quickly. He'd underperform in the West and parts of the East Coast.

[EliteLX]

In contrast with 2012, he would under-perform with just about every possible demographic and geographical area of the United States. His only possible area of improvement is give or take ~1-2% with the white male vote and slightly improved numbers in the rust belt (working class whites), but still getting shut out drastically in all of the RB states besides Indiana.

A hopeless election it'd be.

[tallguy23]

If Romney couldn't turn out the base, Trump won't.

His die-hard supporters will turn out but many voters will stay home out of embarrassment.

[heatmaster]

Trump underperform in the south, he would be a perfect fit in hillbilly country, most of those folks are low information and anti everything voters, you know the folks who only read the national enquirer and hang out in Walgreens and go to Micky D's for an evening out, yep Trump will be at home in Dixie,  he should do well in Idaho,  most of those folks are so low information, they think Ireland is a town in there state. Yep he's gonna...do real well😊

[Likely Voter]

Overperform with non-college white men. Underperform with every single other group.

[dudeabides]

I can't emphasize this point enough, he'd lose in a landslide. Gary Johnson would get 5% of the vote and Clinton would be above 55% easily. On a good day, he'd 12 states. He is the least electable Republican candidate. Americans want a reformer, they don't want a blowhard.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I can't emphasize this point enough, he'd lose in a landslide. Gary Johnson would get 5% of the vote and Clinton would be above 55% easily. On a good day, he'd 12 states. He is the least electable Republican candidate. Americans want a reformer, they don't want a blowhard.

A Republican being held under 40% nationally in today's polarizing, grossly partisan environment? Sorry, not happening.

[Kingpoleon]

343: Fmr. Sec. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Gov. Steve Bullock(D-MT) - 51.6%
195: Businessman Donald Trump(R-NY)/Rep. Trey Gowdy(R-SC) - 46.2%
Other: 2.1%