Third competitive candidates

[Stan]

In 2016 will be one - or more - third competitive candidates? And if not, Who can place in third position after the Dem and the GOP candidates?

[MIKESOWELL]

It sounds like you're referring to a legitimate third party candidacy. If he doesn't receive the GOP nomination, I think Donald Trump can get between 10 to 15 percent of the popular vote, maybe even approach Perot '92 numbers in the right political environment.

[I support Sanders]

The largest third parties (in terms of members and votes cast) are the Libertarian Party, Green Party, and Constitution Party. I predict that Gary Johnson will be the Libertarian nominee again, and will receive the greatest number of votes, possibly reaching 3% if someone as polarizing as Trump, Carson, or Cruz is the nominee. On the other hand, I think Donald Trump may select Gary Johnson as a running mate in order to receive a Libertarian endorsement or at least take votes away from the Libertarians. Johnson, after all, was a libertarian Republican and presidential candidate in 2011-2012, and a former two-term Governor of a blue state.

Beyond that, I don't see the Green Party or Constitution Party breaking 1% regardless of who the Democratic nominee is. That said, if Bernie Sanders is the nominee and selects an equally-progressive running mate, I can see the Green Party and/or Justice Party, Socialist Party, Socialist Workers' Party, Communist Party, PSL, PFP, etc. endorsing that ticket, just as the left-wing third parties endorsed McGovern/Shriver in 1972. Uniting all of the left-wing parties will solidify a Democratic victory.

[Kingpoleon]

I'm hoping the Justice Party gains more ground. It's not perfect, but it's better than the Democrats and Libertarians.

[Mehmentum]

That said, if Bernie Sanders is the nominee and selects an equally-progressive running mate, I can see the Green Party and/or Justice Party, Socialist Party, Socialist Workers' Party, Communist Party, PSL, PFP, etc. endorsing that ticket, just as the left-wing third parties endorsed McGovern/Shriver in 1972. Uniting all of the left-wing parties will solidify a Democratic victory.

All of those parties put together got less than .01% of the vote.  They are beyond irrelevant by even third party standards.  If anything, their endorsement would hurt, by giving the Republican easy fodder 'Sanders: Endorsed by the Communist Party'

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbf theofficial communist party always endorses the Democrats. But yeah, if you think Trotskyites are going to endorse Sanders you are lucky, as you clearly don't know much about Trotskyites.

And let's get real: third parties will almost certainly have very little relevance to the national campaign.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Tbf theofficial communist party always endorses the Democrats. But yeah, if you think Trotskyites are going to endorse Sanders you are lucky, as you clearly don't know much about Trotskyites.

And let's get real: third parties will almost certainly have very little relevance to the national campaign.

Johnson could hit Nader '00 levels if the race sees a Trump/Carson ticket or something like that. If Bush or Rubio is the nominee, expect Johnson to get like 0.85% of the vote-a 0.14% fall from 2012.

I fully expect Larry Lessig to mount an independent campaign and I fully expect him to fall behind the Libertarians (Johnson), Greens (Stein), Constitution (probably Rev. Copeland), and Roseanne Barr, despite the fact that the Lessig campaign will absolutely stack the internet with cheap ads promising an open internet and free college.

[VPH]

In terms of third parties, at most, at absolute most, the Libertarian Party will get 1.5%. Sorry to crush the Atlas dream of a strong LP. The other parties (Green, Justice, Constitution) are simply irrelevant.

For independents, the only somewhat successful scenario I see is that Trump runs as an independent and pushes 7-10%. If Webb runs as an indie, I can see him getting 1% max.

[Mehmentum]

The main problem for the non-Libertarian third parties is that they're basically a more hardcore version of the Democrats and Republicans, and voters don't want to waste their vote (fearing a Nader 2000 situation).

The Libertarians at least sit in a unique position on the ideological spectrum.  Perot did in the 90s as well. 

[Stan]

And what do You think about McAfee's candidature? How much votes can He reach?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

And what do You think about McAfee's candidature? How much votes can He reach?

less  than 0.1% IMHO

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

And what do You think about McAfee's candidature? How much votes can He reach?

less  than 0.1% IMHO
[/quote
He's one of those tools who think that announcing a campaign over Twitter gets them on the ballot.