Predict: Who will win in IL-10?

[Mr. Illini]

Predict: Who will win in IL-10?

2014 Results

Dold 51
Schneider 49

2012 Results

Schneider 51
Dold 49

2010 Results

Dold 51
Seals 49

[Heisenberg]

Given that Dold lost it by 2 points last Presidential election, and Obama will not be on the ballot this year, and Kirk will, I say he narrowly squeaks by with a razor-thin margin.
Dold: 50.25%
Schneider: 49.75%
Or something like that.

[Maxwell]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

[smoltchanov]

Schneider narrowly because of wave (though i consider Dold being much better congressman)

[Xing]

I'll make the bold prediction that Schneider wins 51-49.

[Mr. Illini]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

Dems are worried that a Dold victory this year would entrench him in the seat - winning in the Presidential year and then a likely reelection in 2018 would likely keep him in the seat as long as he wants.

[Vosem]

Dold is obviously the stronger candidate by far, but I think the Trumpnami will be intense enough and this seat is Democratic enough that Schneider wins anyway. Dold comes back in 2018 and wins. Assuming 2020 is a decent Republican year, he wins that and gets entrenched, though I doubt his victory margin ever gets out of the single digits.

[Mr.Phips]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

Dems are worried that a Dold victory this year would entrench him in the seat - winning in the Presidential year and then a likely reelection in 2018 would likely keep him in the seat as long as he wants.

I don't think any Republican will ever get entrenched in this district.

[Kingpoleon]

Schneider narrowly because of wave (though i consider Dold being much better congressman)

Probably this, though Kirk will probably boost the Republicans further down ticket.

[JMT]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

I agree with you that Schneider wins this year, because of presidential year turnout and the fact that Donald Trump is the GOP nominee. But I'm not so convinced Dold calls it quits, I think with Hillary as President, 2018 could be a Republican wave year and Dold could win his seat back yet again. Look at the Guinta / Shea-Porter constant rematches, they are both running against each other for now the fourth time. So it could happen in IL-10 too

[Kingpoleon]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

I agree with you that Schneider wins this year, because of presidential year turnout and the fact that Donald Trump is the GOP nominee. But I'm not so convinced Dold calls it quits, I think with Hillary as President, 2018 could be a Republican wave year and Dold could win his seat back yet again. Look at the Guinta / Shea-Porter constant rematches, they are both running against each other for now the fourth time. So it could happen in IL-10 too

Hopefully Schneider will run for Senate in 2020 if Durbin retires or pulls a Gillespie and runs for Governor.

[JMT]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

I agree with you that Schneider wins this year, because of presidential year turnout and the fact that Donald Trump is the GOP nominee. But I'm not so convinced Dold calls it quits, I think with Hillary as President, 2018 could be a Republican wave year and Dold could win his seat back yet again. Look at the Guinta / Shea-Porter constant rematches, they are both running against each other for now the fourth time. So it could happen in IL-10 too

Hopefully Schneider will run for Senate in 2020 if Durbin retires or pulls a Gillespie and runs for Governor.

I think Cheri Bustos is the front runner for Durbin's seat if he retires, and I don't see Schneider trying to run against her. I could get behind Scneider for Governor though, he could be a formidable candidate against Rauner in 2018 and it may be an easier way to win than to face Dold in 2018, assuming Scneider wins in 2016

[Mr. Illini]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

I agree with you that Schneider wins this year, because of presidential year turnout and the fact that Donald Trump is the GOP nominee. But I'm not so convinced Dold calls it quits, I think with Hillary as President, 2018 could be a Republican wave year and Dold could win his seat back yet again. Look at the Guinta / Shea-Porter constant rematches, they are both running against each other for now the fourth time. So it could happen in IL-10 too

Hopefully Schneider will run for Senate in 2020 if Durbin retires or pulls a Gillespie and runs for Governor.

He will need to lock this seat down first. Bustos locked down her seat that was once considered Lean D. She's proven very strong. Brad continuing to trade this seat with Dold will not be good enough for a run for higher office.

[Bojack Horseman]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

Hopefully. I don't get why this district is even competitive: D+8 and it still depends on turnout. The next thing they need to do in Illinois is primary Dan Lipinski.

[Green Line]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

Hopefully. I don't get why this district is even competitive: D+8 and it still depends on turnout. The next thing they need to do in Illinois is primary Dan Lipinski.

Lipinski is a great fit for his district.  The people love him. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

Hopefully. I don't get why this district is even competitive: D+8 and it still depends on turnout. The next thing they need to do in Illinois is primary Dan Lipinski.

Lipinski is a great fit for his district.  The people love him. 

Indeed, he holds down the seat well for Ds. Of course we can thank Speaker Madigan he has a seat to run in the first place.

[Deblano]

Hopefully it's Dold. He's a pretty good feller and a genuine moderate republican who will be sorely missed by me and others in congress, even though I don't live anywhere near Illinois.

[Bojack Horseman]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

Hopefully. I don't get why this district is even competitive: D+8 and it still depends on turnout. The next thing they need to do in Illinois is primary Dan Lipinski.

Lipinski is a great fit for his district.  The people love him. 

Why do I get the feeling that a so-called Democrat who opposes abortion and gay marriage wouldn't do well in a D+5 district if they knew how he actually felt?

[Green Line]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

Hopefully. I don't get why this district is even competitive: D+8 and it still depends on turnout. The next thing they need to do in Illinois is primary Dan Lipinski.

Lipinski is a great fit for his district.  The people love him. 

Why do I get the feeling that a so-called Democrat who opposes abortion and gay marriage wouldn't do well in a D+5 district if they knew how he actually felt?

I don't know why you get that feeling... He's probably less conservative than the local Democrats in the state house. (Fran Hurley, Kelly Burke)

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I think the pendulum swings back to Schneider. Dold gives up in 2018 and Schneider beats another Republican by a decent margin and then gets entrenched in the seat.

I agree with you that Schneider wins this year, because of presidential year turnout and the fact that Donald Trump is the GOP nominee. But I'm not so convinced Dold calls it quits, I think with Hillary as President, 2018 could be a Republican wave year and Dold could win his seat back yet again. Look at the Guinta / Shea-Porter constant rematches, they are both running against each other for now the fourth time. So it could happen in IL-10 too

Hopefully Schneider will run for Senate in 2020 if Durbin retires or pulls a Gillespie and runs for Governor.

He will need to lock this seat down first. Bustos locked down her seat that was once considered Lean D. She's proven very strong. Brad continuing to trade this seat with Dold will not be good enough for a run for higher office.

I have a hard time seeing any Republican winning the current IL-17. Sure, Kirk and Rauner carried it, but House elections are different.

[ElectionsGuy]

The district is terrible for Trump, and sadly that's probably what's going to make Dold lose.