Morning Consult 50 state snapshot: Clinton 320 Trump 212
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  Morning Consult 50 state snapshot: Clinton 320 Trump 212		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Morning Consult 50 state snapshot: Clinton 320 Trump 212  (Read 646 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: July 14, 2016, 08:55:48 AM »
A revisit from their old article that foretold the relative closeness in Georgia/Maine. GA has now swung towards Clinton, though OH is now leaning Trump.

https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/

If the presidential election were held today, Hillary Clinton would top Donald Trump 320-212 in electoral votes to clinch the White House, according to an extensive Morning Consult analysis of 57,000 voters.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2016, 09:09:08 AM »
GA going Dem and not AZ and NC? OH and ME lean R? LOL. No.

Hillary will win with 2012 map plus NC. And 50% chance she takes AZ as well. So either 347 or 358 EVs, NE-02 not included but is also in play.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2016, 09:10:08 AM »
North Carolina shouldn't be safe Trump,  Georgia probably isn't lean Clinton.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2016, 09:13:21 AM »
Trump barely led Clinton in May in Georgia, when she was polling the worst nationally.

It's going to be touch, but she can win Georgia if she improves Obama's Atlanta margin from 50% to 55% and maintain the rest of the state at 40% (doube she can go lower, rednecks hated Obama, can't hate Clinton much more).
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2016, 09:17:48 AM »
What the actual f...
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twenty42
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2016, 09:19:37 AM »
Maine goes R while Georgia goes D?

Maybe 36 years ago. Not today.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2016, 09:38:01 AM »
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2016, 09:58:55 AM »
Given that these are effectively 51 simultaneous polls, there are going to be a few outliers (most likely Georgia and Maine).
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2016, 10:02:47 AM »
Flip Maine and Georgia and it's fine.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2016, 10:03:16 AM »
Quote from: Nyvin on July 14, 2016, 09:10:08 AM
North Carolina shouldn't be safe Trump,  Georgia probably isn't lean Clinton.

"Safe" simply means above the Margin of Error. So it's conceivable that the actual result is within the poll's Margin of Error, but still Trump.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2016, 10:03:47 AM »
So, question: Why were the 51 polls left out of 538's models before? Is there something about them that makes them unusable as polls?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2016, 10:05:19 AM »
Morning Consult is going to get a ton of hateful emails for that Georgia poll.
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MisterElection2001
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2016, 11:21:15 AM »
From a recent Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, it's more likely that Maine's 2nd Congressional District leans Trump, rather than the whole state.
http://www.pressherald.com/2016/06/25/portland-press-herald-june-2016-poll-results/
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