2020 Primaries: Clinton vs Sanders; Ryan vs Cruz vs Ivanka Trump

[cMac36]

Situation: Hillary Clinton running for re-election with 35% job approvals and 70% personal unfavorabilities.  She is able to pass $800b infrastructure bill and tip SCOTUS balance to 5-4 liberal but fails on other policy priorities such as expanding access to health care and education, and Paul Ryan blocks any Immigration bill from floor of the House.

Clinton faces a second challenge from Bernie Sanders, who runs after failing to convince Liz Warren and others to run.  He calls the Clinton presidency a "policy failure" citing statistics that wealth/income gap has continued to expand while Clinton has failed to pass meaningful legislation to address it, and says "time is running out" on Climate Change as dire UN Report in 2018 predicts 6*F of warming by 2100.

Sanders wins the first three states Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada, wins Primaries across the Midwest, winning every caucus, but again fails to gain traction among older and Southern blacks, and older/richer White liberals.  Independents favor Sanders 3:1 but he struggles in closed primaries. Clinton ultimately wins the nomination by a much narrower margin than 2016.

Sanders does, with visible pain and conflict in his face, endorse Clinton again after the final Primaries in June.



GOP candidates boil down to three.

Speaker Paul Ryan: Running as the last gasp of the Nixon-Reagan coalition.  Cut taxes and business will flourish, all that crap.  You get what I mean.  

Sen. Ted Cruz: Survived 2018 primary challenge from Trump-funded rival.  Positions himself as against both the "globalist", "Beltway" politics of Ryan and the "racialist, demographically doomed" politics of Trump.  Also folding into his coalition what is left of the evangelical structures.

Ivanka Trump: will be 39 on Inauguration Day 2021, runs "self-funded" campaign in Primary.  Follows many of Donald's policy leads while softening then and smartening them.  Proposes widely expanding State Sponsors of Terror list to include Iraq, Syria, Libya, Mexico, and others.  Immigration would be barred from State sponsors of Terror.  She runs as Trump 2016 w/ a human face, a nice one at that.


Take it from here.  Who wins GOP nomination?  Can Clinton  win again on sheer brawn and demographics*, does the GOP implode?


*In landmark 5-4 decision the SCOTUS reads the Constitution as guaranteeing automatic voter regisration, extending the franchise to millions and throwing out all Voter ID laws and other restrictions, in move expected to help Democrats.

[LLR]

Sanders is 78. hes already lost once. He'd probably be out of the senate. What of this suggests he'd run again?

[cMac36]

Sanders is 78. hes already lost once. He'd probably be out of the senate. What of this suggests he'd run again?

He won't be out of the Senate.  He'll be re-elected in 2018

This scenario has him running again a) out of disgust for the Clinton presidency, b) with awareness of the unpopularity of Clinton, c) after others fail to step to the plate, and also possible d) a 2018 election cycle in which many 'Bernie-crats' are elected to Congress and State Legislatures.

[Pyro]

If Clinton has 35% I doubt she goes for re-election.

Given this scenario, I'd wager Cruz wins the nomination relatively easily and thrashes Clinton in the general.

[Devout Centrist]

No way Clinton gets the nomination with those numbers.

[cMac36]

No way Clinton gets the nomination with those numbers.

Who defeats her?  Or are you like the dude above who thinks Hillary Clinton of all people wouldn't run for re-election??

Remember even at 35% job approval and 30% personal favorability, she's still well in the Black among Democrats.

[cMac36]

If Clinton has 35% I doubt she goes for re-election.

Given this scenario, I'd wager Cruz wins the nomination relatively easily and thrashes Clinton in the general.

Cruz is immensely unpopular as well dude.  His unfavorables are sky high.  RCP avg is 30 fav 55 unfav.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/cruz_favorableunfavorable-3887.html

[Kingpoleon]

So the results are as follows?

Democratic:

President Hillary Clinton - 50.6%, 18 states
Senator Bernie Sanders - 46.4%, 32 states
Others - 3.0%

Former Speaker Paul Ryan - 52.6%
Businesswoman Ivanka Trump - 25.0%
Senator Ted Cruz - 21.2%
Others - 1.2%

364: Former Speaker Paul Ryan/Governor Tom Kean, Jr. - 54.4%
174: President Hillary Clinton/Vice President Tim Kaine - 41.7%
Others - 3.9%

[mencken]

Allow me to predict how the 2020 Republican Primaries will go, based on the last three:

The guy everyone else is voting for
The guy everyone else is not voting for
The guy who talks like one of us
The guy who does not talk like one of them
The rich guy
The guy the Mormons like
The guy who really doesn't like abortion

Of course, the above categories will likely be split between 2-4 candidates.

Ivanka would take the green states, Ryan would take Wisconsin, Cruz would take both shades of yellow and Texas, Ivanka and Ryan would fight over the blue states, Cruz and Ivanka would fight over the brown states, and Ryan and Cruz would fight over the red states.

[cMac36]

Thanks for the contrib Kingpoleon, though you overestimate Ryans potential by a longshot.

First of all, he already has high negative personal ratings.  The four polls done this year show Ryan's net favorability at 30/29, 40/38, 23/24, and 44/34.

Second, Congress is held in contempt by the American public.  Congress regularly registers 80+% disapproval ratings.

Third, the Republican Party is  held in contempt right now.  Polls show DEMS at about even or a little worse in net favorability, while GOPs are between -30 and -40.

Ryan can be damaged with both of these issues.  This is after 7.5 years of obstruction being the MO. What does Ryan do?  Does he work with Hillary on comprehensive immigration to try to put the issue in the rearview mirror in an attempt to regain the ears of Hispanic voters?  Or wouls it be like Obamacare, the GOP base with their long memories, allowing Ryan to be eviscerated by Cruz on the issue in the Primaries, for colluding with Hillary on a criminal Immigration bill?  And if he blocks it after it passes the Senate, how does he avoid becoming the face of GOP obstruction?

Fourth, the demographics are getting worse for the Republicans by 1-2% every four years.

Fifth, the general public is much more in line with the Democrats on policy issues, particularly economic issues.  In 2012 Obama outed Romney and thus the Republicans as a scam perpetrated by the Billionaire class, the 1%, however you put it, on the rest of the population.


Add it all up and the best Ryan could hope for, even if against a Hillary with 35/65 Disapprovals, is a narrow victory.

It won't be easy for him to get the nomination either.  He has quite an act to pull off over these next years.

[Devout Centrist]

So the results are as follows?

Democratic:

President Hillary Clinton - 50.6%, 18 states
Senator Bernie Sanders - 46.4%, 32 states
Others - 3.0%

Former Speaker Paul Ryan - 52.6%
Businesswoman Ivanka Trump - 25.0%
Senator Ted Cruz - 21.2%
Others - 1.2%

364: Former Speaker Paul Ryan/Governor Tom Kean, Jr. - 54.4%
174: President Hillary Clinton/Vice President Tim Kaine - 41.7%
Others - 3.9%

How does Sanders not win with that map?

[Kingpoleon]

Thanks for the contrib Kingpoleon, though you overestimate Ryans potential by a longshot. First of all, he already has high negative personal ratings.  The four polls done this year show Ryan's net favorability at 30/29, 40/38, 23/24, and 44/34. Second, Congress is held in contempt by the American public.  Congress regularly registers 80+% disapproval ratings.

Third, the Republican Party is  held in contempt right now.  Polls show DEMS at about even or a little worse in net favorability, while GOPs are between -30 and -40. Ryan can be damaged with both of these issues.  This is after 7.5 years of obstruction being the MO. What does Ryan do?  Does he work with Hillary on comprehensive immigration to try to put the issue in the rearview mirror in an attempt to regain the ears of Hispanic voters?  Or wouls it be like Obamacare, the GOP base with their long memories, allowing Ryan to be eviscerated by Cruz on the issue in the Primaries, for colluding with Hillary on a criminal Immigration bill?  And if he blocks it after it passes the Senate, how does he avoid becoming the face of GOP obstruction?

Fourth, the demographics are getting worse for the Republicans by 1-2% every four years.

Fifth, the general public is much more in line with the Democrats on policy issues, particularly economic issues.  In 2012 Obama outed Romney and thus the Republicans as a scam perpetrated by the Billionaire class, the 1%, however you put it, on the rest of the population. Add it all up and the best Ryan could hope for, even if against a Hillary with 35/65 Disapprovals, is a narrow victory. It won't be easy for him to get the nomination either.  He has quite an act to pull off over these next years.

If he retires in 2018, he would have 45%+ approvals by January 2020.

[cMac36]

If he retires in 2018, he would have 45%+ approvals by January 2020.

Ted Cruz we're talking about here?  I highly doubt it.

The Republicans are such a toxic brand, only Kasich could keep his head above water in favorability, and he never threatened to have a chance.