Make five predictions about 2020, and discuss the previous poster's predictions
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  Make five predictions about 2020, and discuss the previous poster's predictions
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Author Topic: Make five predictions about 2020, and discuss the previous poster's predictions  (Read 2570 times)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #25 on: July 17, 2016, 11:39:26 PM »
« edited: July 18, 2016, 12:01:11 AM by Del Tachi »

(1)  Possible but no where near certain.  Major hurricanes hitting populated centers is a somewhere rare occurrence, and the fact that you specified "South Florida" makes this prediction a lot less likely to materialize.
(2) It's possible I suppose, but Joe Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard would probably both need to achieve statewide office to be credible presidential candidates by 2020.  Doesn't look likely in 2018.
(3) A very oddly specific prediction.  I'll say "no" to this one because (a) if 17 candidates and Trump don't get us a contested convention in 2016, then I don't know what would in 2020 and (b) after Trump gets shellacked by Clinton this fall, there's going to be some rule changes by the RNC to help out more "establishment" type candidates in advance of 2020.
(4) Russia will continue to make aggressive overtures in Eastern Europe, yes.
(5) I don't know if four years is enough time for all of U.S. manufacturing to collapse"into oblivion", but we will probably see more automation in retail/restaurant environments by 2020.  I believe a neo-Luddite movement is an almost necessary for the current century, but I doubt that displaced service workers are going to have the type of social capital to turn it into a major society-wide force.  Look for the first serious rumblings about tech to not be about economic displacement, but about losses in art/culture.   



My turn.

(1) The President is Hillary Clinton.  Republicans have majorities in both Houses of Congress; by 2019, the GOP will have its largest Senate majority since the 67th Congress.
(2) Theresa May is still Prime Minister of the UK, with the Tories having won a third successive general election in 2020.  They has been some sort of "limited Brexit" that leaves almost everybody dissatisfied, but politicians will pat themselves on the back for "listening to the people".
(3) France is a mess.  Hollande loses reelection to right-winger in 2017 (probably not Le Pen, but a possibility).  Terrorist attacks continue to occur at eerily regular intervals, and mass surveillance/deportation of French Muslims will be a mainstream political position.
(4) The China bubble has popped, and the world economy has entered a global recession after almost ten years of uninterrupted growth.  The political environment in the United States will not be conducive to creating the type of Keynesian stimulus that our country's economy will require, so unemployment will rest at a persistently high 8-10%. 
(5) Race relations in the United States have also devolved.  Elements of the BLM movement have become more radical and militarized, and violence against the police community is increasingly common.  This won't be good for most.
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