Hey guys! It's RR1997. I know I haven't posted on here for a little while now, but I'd like to share something with you people.
As we all know, Donald Trump is massively over performing in Indiana according to the polls.
In a recent poll conducted by Monmouth, Hillary is trailing Donald Trump by 11 points in Indiana (47%-36%)! Romney won Indiana by 10 points in 2012 even though he lost by 4 points nationwide. You guys have to remember that this poll was conducted August 13-16. Hillary was crushing Trump in the national polls during this period. She was ahead by an average of 8 point at the time! This poll was taken during Clinton's peak nationwide (due to Trump's Khan comments). Polls showed her ahead in states like Georgia and Arizona and competitive in states like South Carolina. You guys also have to keep in mind that Monmouth has a slight D bias. Democrats typically over perform in Monmouth polls. Despite all of this, Trump is still polling even BETTER than Romney in Indiana (despite doing a lot worse in most other states). Despite the fact that polls were showing Hillary ahead nationwide by around 8 points, she was still trailing Trump by 11 points in IN.
Why is Donald Trump over performing so heavily in Indiana? Many believe this is because of the fact that Trump's VP pick (Pence) is from Indiana. This is absolutely false (I will explain why shortly). I know the politics of Indiana very well. I will explain to you why Trump is doing so well in this state.
Three words:
Angry Indiana menOff topic: I would first like to start out by saying that I was one of the few people on Old Atlas who predicted Donald Trump's Indiana Primary victory before the first IN poll was released. Before the first IN primary poll was released, most people on old Atlas predicted a Cruz victory in this state. I was the only one who predicted that Donald Trump would be ahead by double-digits in Indiana before the first poll was released. [/b]I was absolutely correct while most other Atlasians were wrong. [/b] Most Indiana polls before the primaries showed Trump ahead by double-digits in the state. Donald Trump ended up winning the state by double-digits. Donald Trump is literally the perfect fit for Indiana (I will explain why shortly). Donald Trump is Indiana personified.
More importantly,
I was the only one who predicted that Sanders would win the Indiana primaries on Old Atlas. Most polls showed Hillary ahead by 2-6 points in Indiana. Almost everyone was predicting a Hillary victory in Indiana except for me. I was the only one who predicted a Sanders victory, and I was absolutely correct. I even rated Indiana as "safe Sanders" before the primaries despite the fact that most polls showed Hillary ahead. I absolutely knew that the polls were junk and that Sanders would easily win this state. I knew that the male residents of Indiana would never vote for a woman.
I was absolutely correct while basically all of the other Atlasians were wrong. IIRC, IN exit polls showed a huge gender gap in the Dem primaries. Angry populist sexist Indiana men broke heavily for a fellow angry male, Sanders.
Also, in the beginning of August, most other Atlasians predicted that Trump would be behind/narrowly ahead of Hillary in Indiana GE since he was trailing her in states like GA and AZ and was only narrowly ahead in SC. I knew in my heart that Trump would be still be crushing her in Indiana despite the fact that she was ahead by so much nationwide. I was absolutely correct. Monmouth showed Donald Trump ahead by 11 points.
EVERY SINGLE PREDICTION I'VE MADE THIS YEAR RELATED TO THE POLITICS OF INDIANA HAVE BEEN ABSOLUTELY CORRECT DESPITE THE FACT THAT MOST OTHER ATLASIANS PREDICTED THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT I PREDICTED.
I will now accept my accolades. Back to the topic.
Questions you may be asking:
Q: If "angry Indiana men" is a real phenomenon, then why did Hillary win the 2008 primaries in this state?
A: Her opponent was a black, you see.
Q: Then why did Barack Obama win Indiana against McCain in 2008?
A: McCain was seen as a RINO, so many of the "true conservatives" (AKA angry Indiana men) in this state stayed home, increased black turnout in NW Indiana, the favorite son effect (Obama was from the nearby state of IL), and because of the fact that Indiana was hit very hard by the recession. This is a terrible argument to make IMO. A lot can change in 8 years. Bill Clinton overwhelmingly won WV and Arkansas in 1992 and 1996. Hillary will probably lose both of these states by double-digits. Indiana going D in 2008 was a one time thing. IN is trending heavily R akin to West Virginia.
Indiana will continue to trend R in the future (unlike Sunbelt states like NC, AZ, and GA). Indiana's minority population isn't heavily increasing and rust belt whites are trending R. What makes Indiana different from other Rust Belt states is that IN doesn't have a huge black population
Many people have this weird misconception that Donald Trump is massively over performing in Indiana because of Pence. This is not true. Most Indiana GE polls taken before Donald Trump officially chose Pence as his VP nominee still showed him massively over performing in IN. For example, [/url=https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235754.0] a poll conducted by NBC/WSJ-Marist showed Donald Trump ahead of Hillary 48%-41% in Indiana [/url] This poll was taken when Hillary was ahead nationwide by 8-15 points. A CNN poll taken around that time showed Hillary ahead nationwide by 14 points! Polls were showing Hillary ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, and even ING UTAH during this period, but
Donald Trump was still comfortably ahead in IN despite this. IIRC, there are plenty of other examples of Trump over performing in IN well before he chose Pence. Donald Trump is not over performing because of Pence. Pence is not that popular in IN and will probably not make a significant difference in Trump's performance in this state.
He is ahead because of all the angry men that live in the state. People have this weird misconception that Indiana full of overly-religious Cruz-type conservatives. This is not true. You're average Indiana voter is a non-college middle-class (not poor but not rich) white male. He doesn't really care about issues like gay marriage and abortion (as mentioned before, Hoosiers don't really care about social issues. Indiana isn't a very religious state. Which is why Daniels did so well here, Pence is relatively disliked, and Trump crushed Cruz in the primaries). He doesn't really care about economic issues either. He's actually economically populist and secretly agrees with the Democrats on some economic issues like entitlements and taxes on the wealthy. He is staunchly anti-immigration, anti-free trade, and hates politically correct people. He sometimes feels threatened by minorities and women. He hates the fact that China is taking our jobs via outsourcing. He's not very religious and sometimes even looks down on religious people for being too politically correct and moral. He person would never vote for a woman. He sees Hillary as a sketchy and corrupt bitch. He constantly expresses anger towards women and minorities. He feels threatened by the societal changes going on in this country. He thinks Bernie Sanders is ok (especially when compared to that sketchy bitch), but would still never vote for an evil socialist like him.
As I've said before, Indiana is full of low-information anti-establishment voters, which is why Sanders/Donald Trump won this state during the primaries.
You're average Indiana voter is Trump's base. Trump's base is non-college white males who are staunchly anti-immigration and aren't really religious or conservative (AKA angry Indiana men). McCain is a horrible fit for Indiana. Trump is the perfect fit for Indiana.
I recommend reading this thread:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235753.msg5048628#msg5048628@tnvolunteer claimed that Indiana is a very elastic state. This is false and this election is proof of this.
I also predict that Young will narrowly defeat Bayh by less than 5 points. Sure, Bayh is ahead right now, but his lead is rapidly decreasing. Indiana is Arkansas 2.0. The only reason why Donnelley won in 2012 is because of his opponent's rape comments, and he still BARELY won. I predict that Donnelley is going to get BLANCHED (lose reelection by double-digits). The only reason why Bayh is ahead is because he was a former senator with a high name recognition. and because he's a man. He would have never gotten elected in the first place if his name was Emma Bayh instead of Evan. Angry Indiana men will vote for anyone with an (R) next to his name thanks to Hillary, thus assuring a narrow Young victory. Indiana is undeniably trending R heavily.
I predict that Indiana will be one of the very few states that
Donald Trump will get a higher percentage of the vote than Romney did. Romney won Indiana 54%-44%. I predict that Trump will win IN 55%-41%. Bernie might've done mildly better than Hillary Indiana. Trump would still win IN against him 52%-44%.
Indiana is Arkansas 2.0.
Indiana is a Safe Donald Trump state.
Any questions?
Poll
