The White vote and West Coast

[jaichind]

I was looking around the various exit polls and noticed that on the whole GOP performed fairly poorly among the White vote on the West Coast (CA WA OR) in 2012 and did even worse this year.   But that implies that everywhere else the GOP lead among Whites must be even greater given exit polls.  Since not all the votes are in yet I am just assuming that the share of the national vote for CA WA OR stayed the same in 2016 as 2012.  If we assume that we get the following chart via doing some math based on the 2012 and 2016 national and state level exit polls

          
2012 White vote    
                                  D               R          R lead
West Coast               48.0%      50.2%       2.2%
Non-West Coast        37.8%      60.2%     22.4%
USA                          39.0%     59.0%     20.0%

2016 White vote    
                                  D               R          R lead
West Coast               50.1%      43.3%      -6.8%
Non-West Coast        35.3%      59.9%     24.6%
USA                          37.0%     58.0%      21.0%

Of course part of this is because West Coast Whites are much more likely to be educated which Trump did poorly.  But the fact that Trump's lead Clinton for non-West Coast White went up by 2.2% from 2012 but at the same time lost Whites in West Coast by 6.8% which is a swing of 9% from 2012 explains a lot of the story of how Trump lost the PV but won the EV decisively.  

[MT Treasurer]

California looks like it will be the second most Democratic state (Hawaii was the most Democratic one). Amazing, but still irrelevant because of the EC.

[politicallefty]

California looks like it will be the second most Democratic state (Hawaii was the most Democratic one). Amazing, but still irrelevant because of the EC.

There's enough votes left that California could be the most Democratic state in the nation this year, which even I have a very hard time believing.

Out of curiosity, but could someone show how the white vote when in terms of Southern whites vs. non-Southern whites? While Hillary did lose white women, I have to wonder if she won non-Southern white women. I only mention that because Southern whites tend to vote much more as a bloc than non-Southern whites. Southern whites are a much greater anomaly than West Coast whites.

[Meclazine for Israel]

California will most likely secede with Hillary Clinton as President.

Then the rest of the USA will be permanently Republican.

[jaichind]

Looking at the exit polls for CO and compare them to 2012 shows what the entire state went against the entire national narrative.  One would expect given demographic trends the White share of the vote to go down.  It stayed the same.  One would expect the Trump lead over Clinton in the White vote to stay the same or even go up even though there are high number of college educated Whites.  Clinton made large gains in the White vote.  One would expect Trump to at best stay even with Clinton in the non-White vote relative to 2012.  Trump made significant gains in the non-White vote.  

2012 CO exit polls   Share of electorate         D           R           R lead
Whites                            78%                   44%       54%          10%
Non-Whites                     22%                   78%       19%        -49%

2016 CO exit polls   Share of electorate         D           R           R lead
Whites                            78%                   45%       47%           2%
Non-Whites                     22%                   62%       31%        -31%

These sort of results make one think that it was Biden vs Rubio

If Trump 2016 kept the Romney 2021 lead among Whites he would have won CO.  If Clinton had kept the Obama 2012 advantage in Non-Whites she would have won CO by over 11%.  As it is she won CO by around 4%.

[Cashew]

California will most likely secede with Hillary Clinton as President.

Then the rest of the USA will be permanently Republican.

Wat?