States that swung towards Hillary
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  States that swung towards Hillary
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Author Topic: States that swung towards Hillary  (Read 1295 times)
Panda Express
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« on: November 10, 2016, 08:22:54 PM »
« edited: December 06, 2016, 12:36:09 AM by Vox Populi »

Meaning Hillary outperformed Obama 2012

Washington
California
Arizona
Utah
Texas
Kansas
Virginia
Georgia
Washington D.C.
Maryland
Massachusetts
Illinois
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2016, 08:26:29 PM »

Washington - white collar
California - white collar and Hispanic
Arizona - Hispanic
Utah - Mormoms prefer fellow Mormon to Trump
Texas - Hispanic
Kansas - Not sure
Virginia - white collar in the beltway
Georgia - not sure
Washington D.C. - in the beltway
Massachusetts - white collar
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Hammy
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2016, 08:29:35 PM »


Georgia has a growing Hispanic population and white collar workforce.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2016, 08:29:55 PM »

kansas --> unpopular prez candidate and even more unpopular gov.
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2016, 08:41:53 PM »

I think Clinton under-performed Obama in Kansas.  She did close the gap relative to 2012 since Trump dropped more.  So the reason for Kansas could be relative strong Johnson performance taking away Trump votes.
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Nym90
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« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2016, 09:15:37 PM »

Washington - white collar
California - white collar and Hispanic
Arizona - Hispanic
Utah - Mormoms prefer fellow Mormon to Trump
Texas - Hispanic
Kansas - Not sure
Virginia - white collar in the beltway
Georgia - not sure
Washington D.C. - in the beltway
Massachusetts - white collar

Also Massachusetts is Romney's home state, and Virginia is Kaine's.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2016, 12:36:54 AM »

Now that pretty much all of the votes are in, Maryland and Illinois swung towards Hillary too.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2016, 01:32:21 AM »


More Bible Belt-y but fewer oil interests (see Dakotas) - like in Utah, Trump was just a bad fit for the state culturally. He did lose the caucus by a lot to Cruz.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2016, 01:34:12 AM »

Texas I'd say is more than just Hispanics. Like Georgia there's a growing educated white collar workforce in the cities that hated him.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2016, 01:35:49 AM »

Now that pretty much all of the votes are in, Maryland and Illinois swung towards Hillary too.

Illinois - African Americans, Obama's home turf
Maryland - African Americans, white collars.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2016, 01:54:49 AM »

Meaning Hillary outperformed Obama 2012

Washington
California
Arizona
Utah
Texas
Kansas
Virginia
Georgia
Washington D.C.
Maryland
Massachusetts
Illinois

In terms of margin compared to the Republican candidate, yes those states all swung Dem. this year.  But in half of those cases, it was really the 3rd party vote that was gaining, while Clinton’s share of the vote actually went down slightly compared to Obama 2012 (just not as much as Trump went down compared to Romney).  I think the only states in which Clinton’s %age of votes cast was higher than Obama’s share in 2012 are CA, AZ, UT, TX, and GA.
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2016, 02:59:23 AM »

Virginia was because of Kaine. Him being from there helped her, I think it gave her a 2 or 3 point bounce. Demographically Virginia is lean D but not solid yet. I think it would have been closer without Kaine(though some of that closeness may have been mitigated from a national pro-Clinton swing if she had a better VP)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2016, 09:55:42 AM »

Illinois is shocking. Looks like #BattlegroundIllinois is as plausible as #BattlegroundMississippi after this election.

Especially if Democrats continue to win the suburbs.

Dave Wasserman has Idaho swinging Clinton too
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2016, 08:46:35 PM »

Washington -  urbanites, and young
California - urbanites and Hispanic
Arizona - Hispanic and urban
Utah - Evan McMullin
Texas - Hispanic, educated suburbanites, and libertarian streak
Kansas - suburbanites
Virginia - urbanites/ suburbanites
Georgia - suburbanites
Washington D.C. - LOL drain the swamp doesnt play well here
Massachusetts - urbanites
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2016, 10:05:38 PM »

Washington -  urbanites, and young
California - urbanites and Hispanic
Arizona - Hispanic and urban
Utah - Evan McMullin
Texas - Hispanic, educated suburbanites, and libertarian streak
Kansas - suburbanites
Virginia - urbanites/ suburbanites
Georgia - suburbanites
Washington D.C. - LOL drain the swamp doesnt play well here
Massachusetts - urbanites



I think the educated African Americans in the Atlanta area might have helped GA swing to Hillary much more than anyone else there.

The libertarians might have also helped in Arizona and Washington as well.
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Vosem
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« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2016, 10:26:01 PM »

Is this states where the Hillary's margin was better than Obama's, or states that literally swung towards her, where she got a greater percent of the vote? The only states where Hillary literally achieved a swing to her were, in alphabetical order, Arizona, California, Georgia, Texas, and Utah. (Although in DC the swing against her was just 0.05%, from 90.91% in 2012 to 90.86% in 2016, so that could still reverse itself if late counting in DC is very favorable). As for states where she got a greater margin than Obama, there were plenty, and this atlas calculates that for you for free.

As for Illinois, it makes perfect sense. >20% of the population in most Midwestern states (PA, OH, MI, WI, MN) is classified as rural; in Iowa, it is >30%. In Illinois that percentage is 12%. This is not immediately obvious, since the percent of the land area that is rural is fairly typical for a Midwestern state; the urban areas are simply denser. There's your Clinton swing right there.

Virginia was because of Kaine. Him being from there helped her, I think it gave her a 2 or 3 point bounce. Demographically Virginia is lean D but not solid yet. I think it would have been closer without Kaine(though some of that closeness may have been mitigated from a national pro-Clinton swing if she had a better VP)

Virginia, like Illinois, has suburban voters in a metro area that is doing well, and lots of them. Generally, the areas that failed to respond to "Make America Great Again", and did respond to "America Is Already Great", were those that were doing well in the 2016 economy, and where that greatness could be felt. It's no coincidence in Ohio that the suburbs of Cincinnati and Columbus swung Democratic, while Cleveland's swung Republican (since those cities have been doing better for themselves) -- and if you look at maps of Cuyahoga County, you can clearly see areas that are doing well) like Rocky River and Fairview Park swinging to Clinton, while Parma swings to Trump. Northern Virginia has been having an economic boom and has plenty of educated voters, and so it swung hard to Clinton.

Virginia is not yet quite lost for Republicans, I think (I suspect Rubio would've won there without too much of a problem, in fact), but Trumpism is not going to play well there at all.
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Axel Foley
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« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2016, 08:31:45 PM »

It's not a State, but we can see a certain swing to Hillary, compared to 2012 results, also in NE-02, which Romney won quite confortably...I know that since Obama victory there in 2008 the district was restructured, with part of Sarpy county moved to district One while another part of the same county made the opposite journey...what would have been the district results with its 2008 boundaries?
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nclib
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« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2016, 07:25:51 PM »

Now that pretty much all of the votes are in, Maryland and Illinois swung towards Hillary too.

Illinois - African Americans, Obama's home turf
Maryland - African Americans, white collars.

The irony is that the bold would suggest a Repub trend. But both states also have many upscale white urbanites.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #18 on: December 08, 2016, 07:30:20 PM »

Now that pretty much all of the votes are in, Maryland and Illinois swung towards Hillary too.

Illinois - African Americans, Obama's home turf
Maryland - African Americans, white collars.

The irony is that the bold would suggest a Repub trend. But both states also have many upscale white urbanites.


Not only that Illinois is Obama's land.
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nclib
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« Reply #19 on: December 08, 2016, 08:00:38 PM »

Now that pretty much all of the votes are in, Maryland and Illinois swung towards Hillary too.

Illinois - African Americans, Obama's home turf
Maryland - African Americans, white collars.

The irony is that the bold would suggest a Repub trend. But both states also have many upscale white urbanites.


Not only that Illinois is Obama's land.

I know. That's why I also bolded 'Obama's home turf'.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2016, 10:41:45 PM »

Plus African Americans didn't vote for Trump much.
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