Will the 2020 Democratic primary field be majority (non-Hispanic) white male?

[Mr. Morden]

I think there's a good chance that, for what I'm assuming is the first time in US history (unless you count Obama running unopposed for the 2012 Democratic nom.  ), the presidential primary field for one of the two major parties will *not* have a non-Hispanic white male majority.  For this, I'm only counting people who would be prominent enough to be included in polls.  Not joke candidates like Randall Terry or Vermin Supreme.

Looks like you could easily have ~1/3rd or more being female, and then on top of that Booker seems quite likely to run, and maybe Castro too, and there could be other minorities throwing their hats in as well.  (If you want to take Kanye seriously, you could include him too.  )

A couple of things that could derail this though: 1) Maybe Trump's electoral success will encourage one or more billionaires (like Tom Steyer) to enter the race, and 2) maybe Sanders's success in getting more than 40% of the Democratic primary vote will encourage multiple Kucinich-like progressive backbenchers to give it a shot as well.  I don't know who those folks might be, but they might be more likely to be white males than the current "top tier" candidates.

[Mike67]

I have a feeling Joe Biden,Bernie Sanders,Hillary Clinton,Tim Kaine and Martin O Malley will be running for the Democratic Nomination in 2020 and there's a very good chance that Cory Booker and Julian Castro will run also.

[Confused Democrat]

I have a feeling Joe Biden,Bernie Sanders,Hillary Clinton,Tim Kaine and Martin O Malley will be running for the Democratic Nomination in 2020 and there's a very good chance that Cory Booker and Julian Castro will run also.

Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, and Tim Kaine definitely won't run in 2020.

[Famous Mortimer]

Probably but the front runners won't be White males. It will be like 2008 when it was a woman (Hillary) vs a Black guy (Obama) but there were still a bunch of boring white dudes (Edwards, Dodd, Biden) running and failing to gain traction. In the future, almost all White male presidential candidates will be relegated to Martin O'Malley status.

[Bigby]

The Democrats are too far gone into identity politics for a white male candidate.

[Figueira]

Probably but the front runners won't be White males. It will be like 2008 when it was a woman (Hillary) vs a Black guy (Obama) but there were still a bunch of boring white dudes (Edwards, Dodd, Biden) running and failing to gain traction. In the future, almost all White male presidential candidates will be relegated to Martin O'Malley status.

I agree with this except for the last sentence.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Probably but the front runners won't be White males. It will be like 2008 when it was a woman (Hillary) vs a Black guy (Obama) but there were still a bunch of boring white dudes (Edwards, Dodd, Biden) running and failing to gain traction. In the future, almost all White male presidential candidates will be relegated to Martin O'Malley status.

I agree with this except for the last sentence.

Agreed. White male Trump like candidates will never not be boring to watch.

[Mike67]

Probably but the front runners won't be White males. It will be like 2008 when it was a woman (Hillary) vs a Black guy (Obama) but there were still a bunch of boring white dudes (Edwards, Dodd, Biden) running and failing to gain traction. In the future, almost all White male presidential candidates will be relegated to Martin O'Malley status.

I agree with this except for the last sentence.

Agreed. White male Trump like candidates will never not be boring to watch.

There has always pretty much been a dearth of interesting Politicians. They tend to be more often than not boring technocrats

[Jesus save us]

Technocrats aren't always boring. Steve Jobs, for example.

[Mike67]

I have a feeling Joe Biden,Bernie Sanders,Hillary Clinton,Tim Kaine and Martin O Malley will be running for the Democratic Nomination in 2020 and there's a very good chance that Cory Booker and Julian Castro will run also.

Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, and Tim Kaine definitely won't run in 2020.

I can see Uncle Joe running because he'll get the backing of Obama and the Democratic Establishment.

[Mr. Morden]

I have a feeling Joe Biden,Bernie Sanders,Hillary Clinton,Tim Kaine and Martin O Malley will be running for the Democratic Nomination in 2020 and there's a very good chance that Cory Booker and Julian Castro will run also.

Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, and Tim Kaine definitely won't run in 2020.

I can see Uncle Joe running because he'll get the backing of Obama and the Democratic Establishment.

I honestly really doubt it.  Obama's not going to endorse anyone until there's a presumptive nominee.  And the party "establishment" is probably not going to go all in on Biden like they went in on Clinton.

[Vosem]

This depends a little bit on what you define "serious primary field", since on both sides diverse candidates tend to do a bit better. If you count field as anyone who crosses 5% in an early state (since other candidates were basically crossed out by the voters), the Democratic field was already not majority-white male in 2008 (since the candidates were Obama, Clinton, Edwards), 2012 (just Obama), or 2016 (Clinton, Sanders); in fact, the Republican field in 2016 was barely majority-white male (4 "serious" white males in Trump, Kasich, Bush, and Christie, to 3 serious non-white males in Cruz, Rubio, and Carson).

[Mr. Morden]

This depends a little bit on what you define "serious primary field", since on both sides diverse candidates tend to do a bit better. If you count field as anyone who crosses 5% in an early state (since other candidates were basically crossed out by the voters), the Democratic field was already not majority-white male in 2008 (since the candidates were Obama, Clinton, Edwards), 2012 (just Obama), or 2016 (Clinton, Sanders); in fact, the Republican field in 2016 was barely majority-white male (4 "serious" white males in Trump, Kasich, Bush, and Christie, to 3 serious non-white males in Cruz, Rubio, and Carson).

I'm counting any candidate who participates in any of the debates (at least, any of the debate that the top tier candidates participate in), plus anyone else who is included in a non-negligible number of polls by mainstream news organizations.  So, for example, a Mike Gravel 2008 would count while a Fred Karger 2012 would not.